Track record

Gas turbines are sold out and pricier: it signed 11 GW last quarter and shipped 5 GW, and raised 2026 free cash flow guidance to $16–17B, yet the stock is 28% below its high.

Re-check if: gas signings fall below shipments for two quarters in a row

Hard drives are sold out through 2027 and price per terabyte keeps rising at a steady pace, while memory chip price gains are shrinking. Guidance holds +16% a quarter; the stock is 54% below its high.

Re-check if: price per terabyte stops rising from a year earlier

Demand keeps beating forecasts: data center revenue up 117% and guidance above consensus, with supply the limit. At about 17x next year's earnings, the stock is flat over a year while that revenue doubled.

Re-check if: the largest cloud providers cut 2027 capital spending below 2026

Gas turbines are sold out and pricier: it signed 11 GW last quarter and shipped 5 GW, and raised 2026 free cash flow guidance to $16–17B, yet the stock is 28% below its high.

Driver rising: Signed 11 GW of gas turbines last quarter, shipped 5 GW (Q3 2026 results, Oct 28). Re-check if: gas signings fall below shipments for two quarters in a row

Demand keeps beating forecasts: data center revenue up 117% and guidance above consensus, with supply the limit. At about 17x next year's earnings, the stock is flat over a year while that revenue doubled.

Driver rising: Data center revenue up 117%, guidance above forecasts (FQ2 2027 results, Aug 26). Re-check if: the largest cloud providers cut 2027 capital spending below 2026

Hard drives are sold out through 2027 and price per terabyte keeps rising at a steady pace, while memory chip price gains are shrinking. Guidance holds +16% a quarter; the stock is 54% below its high.

Driver rising: Drives sold out through 2027; price per terabyte still rising (FQ1 2027 results, Oct 22). Re-check if: price per terabyte stops rising from a year earlier

AI agents threaten software priced per user. Palantir sells AI deployments instead, and demand keeps beating forecasts: revenue up 93%, guidance raised $500M. ServiceNow just guided backlog growth down to 18.5%. CrowdStrike grows 26% at about twice Palantir's earnings multiple.

Driver rising: Q2 revenue up 93%; 2026 guidance raised about $500M (Q2 2026 results, Aug 3). Re-check if: the nov 2 q3 report brings q4 guidance below forecasts or u.s. commercial growth below 100%; any guidance cut means sell

When yields swing, banks and funds hedge with Treasury futures, and CME runs the main U.S. market for them, so record volume flows to profit. ICE's rate-sensitive mortgage software barely grew as high rates choke home loans.

Driver rising: Record Q3 volume, 29.4M contracts a day, up 16% (Q3 2026 results, Oct 21). Re-check if: monthly volume growth falls below 10% year on year, or interest-rate volume falls year on year

Cheap Chinese models need Chinese clouds, and Alibaba owns Qwen, the most-downloaded open model family. Its AI cloud sales grew 45%, a 22-quarter high, yet the stock is down over a quarter this year. U.S. chipmakers are this theme's losers.

Driver rising: AI cloud revenue up 45%, fastest in 22 quarters (June-quarter 2026 results, Aug 20). Re-check if: mid-november results show ai cloud growth below 45%, or capex (up 75%) keeps outgrowing cloud sales

Coinbase gets about 45% of revenue from crypto trading fees. Bitcoin is falling and trading has flattened, so that line stays weak, and costs are guided up for Q4. Robinhood is less exposed because prediction markets, options and interest carry it.

Driver stalled: Bitcoin fell 4.1% to $77,446 on Binance's $6.3B hack (CNBC; Q3 2026 10-Q, Oct 30). Re-check if: bitcoin back above $86,000 (its early-october level), or monthly trading volume rising for two straight months

AWS growth is speeding up (39%, guided above 40% for 2027–28), so its data centers earn back their cost fastest. Oracle borrows for a few customers, Meta has no cloud to rent out, Alphabet's Search is slowing, and Microsoft's bookings fell 12%.

Driver rising: AWS +39%, fastest in nearly five years; backlog $578B (Q3 2026 results, Oct 29). Re-check if: aws growth falls below 35%, or the backlog stops growing. also re-check if 2027 capital spending rises while trailing free cash flow (cash left after spending) drops further below –$42.4b.

Tilray sells no THC in the U.S., so rescheduling cuts none of its taxes. Its Canadian cannabis is shrinking, and new share sales spread losses across more shares. Canopy has the same no-tax-break problem but less dilution. Trulieve gets the actual tax cut.

Driver slowing: Adj. operating profit –10% to $9.2M; cannabis revenue –13% (FQ1 2027 results (8-K), Oct 8). Re-check if: a dea final rule moving all marijuana to schedule iii, which would spark a headline rally. the judge refused opponents' delay on oct 22, and reply briefs are due nov 5. also re-check if tilray reaches a $68m+ yearly profit pace with no new share sales.

AI computing is scarce, and SpaceX guided next quarter's sales to $33–37B against about $22B expected. If it delivers, forecasts have to rise. Rocket Lab still loses money waiting on Neutron, and Virgin Galactic has almost no revenue.

Driver rising: Q1 2027 sales guided $33–37B vs about $22B expected (Q3 2026 results, Oct 20). Re-check if: q1 2027 guidance is cut, an ai renter such as anthropic or google gives its 90-day cancellation notice, or the ai segment slips back to a loss

Higher rates make new money costlier, and Lucid will need a lot: it burned $2.9B in the first half and its cheaper car is due late 2027. Rivian, Realty Income and SoFi make or earn money. Lucid must sell shares to survive.

Driver rising: Fed held Oct 28; two officials voted for a hike (FOMC decision, Oct 28). Re-check if: nov 9 q3 results show cash burn under $1b a quarter, or the saudi fund funds lucid without heavy dilution. also re-check if october inflation cools enough to take a december hike off the table.

American buys jet fuel at market prices with no hedges and carries about $36B of debt and leases, so each oil rise widens its loss; it has cut 2026 guidance three times. Delta still expects over $5 a share.

Driver rising: Q4 plan assumes $4.70 jet fuel, up from $3.85 in Q3 (Q3 2026 results, Oct 22). Re-check if: a u.s.-iran deal or brent back under $100 (it was about $115 on oct 26), or american's guidance stops falling at its january report

More contracts traded means more fees, and Robinhood keeps more of each fee now that it runs its own exchange. Event-contract revenue of $173M is about seven times Coinbase's Kalshi resale business, and it pays no state gaming tax, unlike DraftKings and FanDuel.

Driver rising: Record 16.4B contracts, $173M revenue, up from $156M in Q2 (Q3 2026 results, Oct 27). Re-check if: quarter-on-quarter contract growth below 10% (it was 21% in q3), a supreme court or state ruling against sports contracts, or more cease-and-desist orders like connecticut's

Rigetti's value rests on its roadmap, and it keeps missing its own dates. The 108-qubit machine came late and fell short of its accuracy target, and the 1,000-qubit date moved out. The stock sits near 100x 2027 sales. IonQ has about 16x the revenue.

Driver stalled: 1,000-qubit goal slid from end-2027 to roughly three years out (Q2 2026 results and call, Aug 6). Re-check if: nov 10 q3 results bring back a dated roadmap and show the 108-qubit system hitting its accuracy target

Bank of America puts over half of Tesla's value in robotaxis. Yet Tesla has about 2M driverless miles to Waymo's 300M, car profit is shrinking (2.6% operating margin), and 2027 profit forecasts keep falling.

Driver stalled: Q3 operating margin 2.6%; only about 2M driverless miles (Q3 2026 update, Oct 21). Re-check if: tesla discloses robotaxi rides or revenue growing fast, 2027 profit forecasts start rising, or q4 (reported jan 27) shows real free cash flow

Missile restocking after the Iran war is now signed multiyear contracts, and RTX raised its 2026 sales, profit and cash guidance on Oct. 20. Lockheed's 26% one-month jump rests on an F-35 deal Congress hasn't funded.

Driver rising: Raised 2026 EPS guide to $7.65–$7.75 from $7.10–$7.25 (Q3 2026 results, Oct 20). Re-check if: congress lets the dec. 11 stopgap roll into a full-year freeze, or raytheon's organic growth falls below 10% (it was 14% in q3)

Patient numbers are growing faster than prices are falling, so revenue keeps beating forecasts. Tirzepatide beat Novo's semaglutide 20.2% vs 13.7% weight loss head-to-head. Novo guides 2026 sales flat to down 6%. Hims resells Novo's drugs and lost $86M.

Driver rising: Q3 revenue +39% to $24.4B; 2026 guide raised to $91–92B (Q3 2026 results (8-K), Oct 29). Re-check if: volume growth slows to near the rate prices fall (prices fell 15% in q3). or february's 2027 guidance comes in below the roughly $104b consensus, now that about $900m of one-time q3 help is gone.

ICE earns a fee on every futures trade it runs and clears, and its futures volume is growing faster than CME's (31% vs 16% in Q3). The Trade[XYZ] deal adds round-the-clock retail crypto futures that it alone will run and clear in the US. CME has no partner.

Driver rising: Q3 transaction revenue up 28%; futures volume up 31% (Q3 2026 results, Oct 29). Re-check if: monthly ice futures volume growth falls below cme's, or the cftc delays or rejects the trade[xyz] venue