Plug Power
PLUG- Our rating
- hold
- 12-month target
- $1.62 +23.9%
- Expected vs. S&P 500
- +5.4 ptsSee the math
- Next earnings
- Nov 9In 4 daysListen to the call, 4:30 PM ET ↗
Plug's record-low $28M cash burn last quarter came alongside about $47M of one-time asset sales and released escrow cash.
Plug Power sells hydrogen fuel cells that run warehouse forklifts for companies like Walmart and Amazon, along with the fuel, service and leases behind them, and it also sells machines that make hydrogen. It has never earned an operating profit and has covered its losses by selling new shares, lifting its average share count 23% in a year. Cost cuts begun in 2025 are now showing up in its results. The stock depends on cash losses shrinking fast enough that Plug can stop selling shares.
Plug Power sells hydrogen power for warehouse forklifts and machines that make hydrogen. It has never earned an operating profit, and in 2025 it spent more to supply hydrogen, rentals and equipment than customers paid.3
What it sells
- Forklift power rentals28% of revenue, FY2025
Customers rent fuel cells for their forklifts under multiyear contracts and pay Plug to maintain them. The rentals lost money in 2025.
- Electrolyzers26% of revenue, FY2025
Machines that use electricity to split water and make hydrogen, sold for large industrial projects. Plug's largest single product line.
- Hydrogen fuel19% of revenue, FY2025
Plug delivers hydrogen to customer sites to run their fuel cells. In 2025 it cost Plug almost twice what customers paid.
- Cryogenic equipment13% of revenue, FY2025
Tanks, trailers and liquefiers that chill hydrogen into liquid so they can be stored and moved.
- Fuel cells and stations11% of revenue, FY2025
GenDrive fuel cells that replace forklift batteries, and the hydrogen fueling stations installed at customer warehouses.
Who buys it
Large distribution centers and factories in North America and Europe that run forklifts on several shifts a day. Walmart alone was 24% of 2025 revenue and an unnamed second customer 14%. Amazon and Walmart earn warrants to buy Plug shares as they buy its products.
Where you've seen it
Few people have. Its fuel cells power forklifts inside big warehouses and distribution centers, out of public view.
Under longtime CEO Andy Marsh, Plug built its own hydrogen plants and sold fuel below cost, burning more than $1.8B of operating cash in 2023 and 2024. New shares paid for much of it, more than doubling the share count. Marsh's team began cutting costs in 2025 under Project Quantum Leap and in November paused plants tied to a government loan. Jose Luis Crespo, who took over as CEO in March 2026, is pushing toward break-even.
How the business makes money
Why Plug Power keeps selling shares to stay running1,2,3,4,7,19
- Step 1
Big warehouse operators like Walmart and Amazon run forklifts on Plug's fuel cells, more than 76,000 of them.
- Step 2
Each site needs regular hydrogen and paid maintenance. Service is turning profitable, but in 2025 hydrogen cost Plug almost twice what customers paid.
- Step 3
Plug also sells machines that make hydrogen, but those sales are lumpy and fell by about two-thirds last quarter.
- Step 4
Cost cuts roughly halved running costs last quarter, yet Plug still used about $147M of cash, against $162M on hand.
- What shareholders get
Nothing reaches shareholders. New share sales cover the losses, lifting the share count 23% in a year. The stock is betting losses shrink fast enough to stop.
Advantages
A large base of forklift customers
Strong advantagePlug's strongest asset, though concentrated. More than 76,000 of its fuel cells run in customers' warehouses. Just two customers supplied over a third of 2025 revenue.1,3
What's changing
After the cost cuts, Plug must prove it can stop burning cash
Plug is selling assets and losing executives as it works to stop burning cash. In August the Energy Department ended an undrawn $1.66B loan guarantee. Plug sold its Texas site to Stream US Data Centers for at least $50M. It is also selling its New York site to Stream for $142M. Operating chief Dean Fullerton leaves October 23, and the stock has fallen about 30% since the end of June.2,3,6,16,20
Competitors
Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.
| Company | Market value | What it does | Compared with Plug Power |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plug Powerthis stock | $1.99B | Plug Power sells hydrogen power for warehouse forklifts and machines that make hydrogen. It has never earned an operating profit, and in 2025 it spent more to supply hydrogen, rentals and equipment than customers paid. | |
| Bloom EnergyBE | $60.27B | Sells fuel cell power plants that run data centers on natural gas, off the grid. | Bloom won data center power demand; Plug still sells forklift fuel cells and electrolyzers.7,12 |
| Ballard Power SystemsBLDP | $507M | Canadian maker of fuel cells for buses, trucks and trains. | Ballard is far smaller but already earns a positive gross margin; Plug only just did.13 |
| Nel ASA (Oslo-listed)private | — | Norwegian maker of electrolyzers, the machines that split water to make hydrogen. | Nel sells only electrolyzers; Plug also earns from forklifts, hydrogen fuel and service.14 |
| Lithium-ion forklift batteriesprivate | — | Battery forklifts that charge from the grid and need no hydrogen at all. | Batteries need no fuel supply; Plug claims steadier power and faster refueling.3 |
Leadership
Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.
Leadership sources (8) · researched Oct 2026
- L1Plug Power Names Jose Luis Crespo as Incoming CEO to Succeed Long-Term Leader Andy Marsh · Plug Power / GlobeNewswire, 2025-10-07
- L2Plug Power Welcomes Jose Luis Crespo as Chief Executive Officer · Hydrogen Central, 2026-03-04
- L3Management Team · Plug Power, 2026-10-08
- L4Plug Power Inc. Form 8-K (appointment of Paul B. Middleton as Chief Financial Officer) · Plug Power / SEC, 2014-11-10
- L5Plug Power Aktie: Roth Capital hebt Kursziel auf 5 Dollar · Börse Global, 2026-08-17
- L6PLUG Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Gains and Cost Discipline, Guidance Raised · StockStory via Yahoo Finance, 2026-08-13
- L7Plug Power Aktie: Jefferies stuft auf Hold hoch · Trading-Treff, 2026-09-04
- L8Plug Power (PLUG) Stock Forecast and Price Target · MarketBeat, 2026-10-08
Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock
- 1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
- 2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
- 3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.
Will Plug's quarterly cash use, about $147 million last quarter before one-time receipts, fall toward zero by late 2027 so it avoids selling new shares?1,2,3,4,5,7
If margins keep rising and asset sales and released cash cover the remaining losses, Plug reaches profit without large share sales and the stock recovers.
- Costs are falling fast. Operating expenses roughly halved last quarter, though a one-time recovery of $40M helped.
- Service is becoming a real profit source. Revenue from maintaining installed units nearly doubled last quarter, at a 27% margin.
- Management sees a turn within reach. It raised this year's sales growth forecast to 15% to 16% and targets an operating profit before depreciation and stock pay in Q4.
- Cash is coming in without selling shares. Plug expects $155M of restricted cash to be released over the next 12 months.
If hydrogen fuel stays unprofitable and electrolyzer orders stall, Plug runs short of cash and sells shares, shrinking each existing holder's stake.
- Underlying cash use has not improved. Stripping out a legal settlement and a tax credit sale, last quarter's burn was level with Q1's $145M.
- Hydrogen fuel still loses money. Fuel is about a fifth of sales, and it costs Plug far more to deliver than customers pay.
- Electrolyzer sales have dried up. They fell by about two-thirds last quarter as large projects wait for customers to commit funding.
- More share sales are lined up. Plug can sell nearly $2B of new stock through brokers and to Yorkville.
Where Delphi landsholdWe think today's price already weighs both sides fairly.See why
What to watch
The numbers that will settle the debate.
- Expected earnings per share
- -$0.06
- Expected revenue
- —
What to listen for: Whether quarterly cash use keeps falling without one-time help, and whether Plug still expects positive operating profit before depreciation this quarter.15,17
What would prove this wrong
- ✕Plug misses its Q4 2026 target for positive operating profit before depreciation.
- ✕Plug starts selling shares through its broker program or Yorkville.
- ✕Hydrogen fuel margin stops improving.
- ✕Large electrolyzer projects fail to secure funding.
Plug trades at 2.8 times expected sales, near its typical level since its 2023 cash warning, and the shares needed to fund its cash burn offset most sales growth.
- 12-month target
- $1.62 (+23.9%)
- S&P 500, same method, with dividends
- +18.5%
- Expected vs the market
- +5.4 points
The math behind the recommendation
Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.
Fuel and equipment margins keep rising, Plug hits its Q4 2026 profit target and asset sales close, so sales approach the high estimate without large share sales.
$0.79 sales per share × 2.5 = $1.96
Sales grow about 19% a year, in line with forecasts, and losses keep shrinking, with released cash and about 7% more shares filling the remaining gap.
$0.74 sales per share × 2.2 = $1.64
Electrolyzer orders stall, fuel stays unprofitable and cash runs short in 2027, forcing Plug to sell many new shares at low prices.
$0.71 sales per share × 1.7 = $1.19
Why these odds: Analysts trimmed 2026 loss forecasts from 31 to 27 cents a share in 60 days, and Plug beat forecasts in three of the last four quarters and raised guidance. Later figures assume 104M new shares to fund about $232M of expected cash burn, lifting the count to 1,501M from 1,397M.
How the prices are built: Wall Street expects sales per share of $0.74 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $0.68 to $0.84). Today the stock trades at 2 times next year's sales per share; its five-year middle is 2.94.2,3,4,17,18,19,20,21,22
What tests the call: Q3 2026 earnings, with cash use and the Q4 profit target (Nov 9)
Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 5; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record
At $1.31, Plug Power is cheaper than usual against its own sales
Plug Power trades at 2.0 times the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's sales. That is cheaper than it has been 80% of the time over the past five years, when the middle was 2.9.
Analysts expect sales to grow about 11% the year after.
- Plug Power multiple
- 2.0×
- Its usual multiple
- 2.9×
- Base case
- +25%
- Bear case
- −9%
Price over the next 12 months' expected sales.
The middle of the past five years.
Our most likely 12-month outcome from $1.31.
Bull case +50%.
The skewOur bear case loses about 36¢ for every $1 our base case makes. That ratio, how much you stand to lose against how much you stand to make, is the skew.
Last earnings
Q2 2026 results, reported Aug 10
Sales beat forecasts, gross margin reached about break-even, reported cash use fell 58% from Q1 with one-time help, and Plug raised 2026 sales growth guidance to 15% to 16%.1,2,7,8,9,11
| Reported Aug 10 | Expected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | -$0.08 | -$0.07 | +12.5% |
| Revenue | — | — | — |
Stock reaction: Closed down 3.2% at $2.11 before the evening release; up about 10% the next day
Why the stock moved
- Up: sales beat consensus by about 6% and the full-year growth forecast rose from 13%-15% to 15%-16%.
- Up: gross margin improved to about break-even from negative 31% a year earlier.
- Up: operating expenses fell about 50%, partly from a one-time recovery, and Plug reaffirmed its Q4 2026 profit target.
- Later faded: the stock fell back below $2 by late September.
What it means for the stock: Strengthened the cost-cutting story, but the crux moved to cash: whether falling losses and asset sales cover the gap without new shares.
Limits of this analysis
Claims that rest on thin or conflicting sources, estimates that had to be extended, and judgment calls.
- ?We assume about $232M of burn over 12 months: operating use halving to about $75M a quarter, as Plug's 2026 guidance implies, plus $87M of spending and finance payments, less $155M of released restricted cash.
- ?That burn is our estimate, well above analysts' free cash flow forecast (negative $57M for 2027, MarketScreener). Unclosed asset sales, up to $223M more, are excluded; if they close, Plug may need few new shares.
- ?History uses nine quarter-ends from December 2023, after Plug's going-concern warning. Earlier readings, up to 23 times sales, priced a cash-rich build-out Plug has since dropped; including them lifts the median to 6.9.
- ?The September and December 2025 history readings use Yahoo consensus for quarters not yet reported, and 2028 sales consensus ($1.16B) comes from MarketScreener alone, with 2027's spread for its range.
- ?The $147M underlying cash use is our calculation from the 10-Q and release: the $61M fall in unrestricted cash plus the $50M settlement and $36M tax credit sale.
Sources
Written Oct 5. Numbers link to these sources.
- 1Plug Reports Revenue of ~$178 Million, ~Break-Even Gross Margin, Net Cash Usage of ~$61 Million and Increases Revenue Guidance for 2026 (Exhibit 99.1) · Plug Power / SEC (Form 8-K), 2026-08-10
- 2Plug Power Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026 · Plug Power / SEC, 2026-08-10
- 3Plug Power Form 10-K, fiscal 2025 · Plug Power / SEC, 2026-03-02
- 4Plug Power Reports Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results (Exhibit 99.1) · Plug Power / SEC (Form 8-K), 2026-03-02
- 5Plug Power Reports Strong Q1 2026 Results (Exhibit 99.1) · Plug Power / SEC (Form 8-K), 2026-05-11
- 6Plug Power Form 8-K: Gateway amendment and Graham, Texas sale to Stream US Data Centers · Plug Power / SEC, 2026-07-13
- 7Plug Power (PLUG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · The Motley Fool, 2026-08-17
- 8Plug Power lifts guidance after topping Q2 revenue forecasts; shares jump · Investing.com, 2026-08-11
- 9Plug Power Stock Jumps After Earnings Beat and Higher 2026 Outlook · Yahoo Finance, 2026-08-11
- 10Why Plug Power (PLUG) Stock Is Nosediving · StockStory via Yahoo Finance, 2026-07-10
- 11Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) Shares Down 7.3% · MarketBeat, 2026-09-28
- 12Bloom Energy Reports Record Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Guidance · Business Wire, 2026-07-28
- 13Ballard Reports Q2 2026 Results · PR Newswire, 2026-07-31
- 14Nel ASA: Second quarter 2026 financial results · MarketScreener, 2026-07
- 15Plug Power Inc (PLUG) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports · TipRanks, 2026-10
- 16Plug Power Form 8-K: resignation of Chief Operating Officer · Plug Power / SEC, 2026-09-23
- 17Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-05
- 18Plug Power (PLUG) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets · StockAnalysis, 2026-09-30
- 19Plug Power Inc.: Financial Data Forecasts Estimates and Expectations · MarketScreener, 2026-10-05
- 20Plug Power (PLUG) Financial Ratios, quarterly · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-05
- 21Plug Power (PLUG) Income Statement, quarterly · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-05
- 22Plug Power Form 10-Q, quarter ended September 30, 2023 (going-concern disclosure) · Plug Power / SEC, 2023-11-09