Other Transportation · #54 in the Retail 100

Uber

UBER

Our rating: buylow conviction
12-month target: $88.58 +33.0%
Expected vs. S&P 500: +14.5 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Nov 4In -1 daysEarnings calls page ↗

Waymo is Uber's partner today and plans to compete with it directly in Austin and Atlanta from 2028.

Summary

Uber runs the largest ride-hailing app, a fast-growing food and grocery delivery business, and a small trucking brokerage, with rides bringing in half its revenue. The business is growing quickly, yet the stock is down 28% in a year on fears that Waymo and Tesla will run robotaxis on their own apps. The stock depends on Uber staying the network robotaxi makers need. At about 16 times expected earnings, much of that risk is already priced in.

$66.60

-$27.10 (-28.92%)Past year

What Uber does

Uber matches riders and diners with independent drivers, couriers and restaurants in over 70 countries. Customers spent $58 billion through its apps last quarter, and Uber kept about a quarter as revenue.^1,25,26

What it sells

Rides (Mobility)52% of revenue, Q2 2026
Car, motorbike and taxi rides, plus ads in the app. Rides earned about two-thirds of the three businesses' operating profit last quarter.
Delivery (Uber Eats)37% of revenue, Q2 2026
Meals, groceries and other goods brought to the door. Customers who use both rides and delivery spend over three times as much.
Freight11% of revenue, Q2 2026
A digital broker that matches shippers with trucking companies. It runs at a small loss.

Who buys it

Mostly individual consumers: 208 million people took a ride or got a delivery each month in Q2 2026. The U.S. and Canada were 54% of revenue and Europe, Middle East and Africa 26%. Freight sells to businesses that ship goods.

Where you've seen it

Uber Eats is part of Uber, and so is Postmates, which still delivers under its own brand.

The backstory

In December 2020 CEO Dara Khosrowshahi sold Uber's self-driving unit to Aurora and chose to partner with robotaxi developers instead. That choice is now being tested: Waymo reached 500,000 paid rides a week by March 2026, and Tesla has started its own robotaxi service. Uber's answer is to be the network robotaxi makers use, supplying riders, dispatch, fleet operations, charging and financing.

How the business makes money

Why Uber's profit grows faster than its trips^{1,2,6,7,8,9,21}

Step 1
Riders and eaters keep coming. Monthly users rose 16% last quarter, and Uber One ties rides and delivery into one subscription.
Step 2
A record 10.2 million independent drivers and couriers do the work, so Uber owns no cars.
Step 3
Uber keeps about a quarter of the $58 billion customers spent through its apps last quarter.
Step 4
Technology and overhead costs grow slower than trips, so profit grows faster. Uber's own profit measure rose 40% last quarter.
What shareholders get
Over $10 billion of spare cash in the past year funds buybacks, which shrink the share count, plus robotaxi bets.

Advantages

Riders that robotaxi makers need

Major advantage

Uber's biggest advantage, and the one Waymo is testing. Uber handles about 3.9 billion trips a quarter, so it can fill robotaxis' idle hours with riders.^1,2

Rides and delivery in one app

Strong advantage

Hard to copy. One app and one subscription cover rides and delivery, while Lyft mainly offers rides and DoorDash mainly delivery.^2,3,13,14

Global reach

Supporting

Helpful, not decisive. Uber operates across the Americas, Europe and Asia, and Delivery Hero would nearly double the markets where it offers both rides and delivery.^2,10

What's changing

Proving it is the robotaxi network, while buying Delivery Hero

Uber is buying growth in delivery while defending its place in robotaxis. In July it offered to buy the rest of Delivery Hero in a deal valuing it at $14.8 billion. Uber already held a 37% economic stake. The same month it disclosed Waymo's own app plan, and in August it said it will commit over $10 billion to robotaxis.^2,5,7,10,21

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with Uber Technologies
Uber Technologiesthis stock	$136.05B	Uber matches riders and diners with independent drivers, couriers and restaurants in over 70 countries. Customers spent $58 billion through its apps last quarter, and Uber kept about a quarter as revenue.
Waymo (Alphabet)GOOGL	$3.88T	Runs its own driverless taxis through its own app, in 10 U.S. cities.	Waymo has the driverless tech; Uber has far more riders, and partners with Waymo.^6,8,21
TeslaTSLA	$1.55T	Carmaker starting its own robotaxi service with two-seat Cybercabs, in Austin.	Tesla could skip Uber entirely, but has only 45 Cybercabs registered so far.^7,21
LyftLYFT	$6.46B	Ride-hailing in North America, plus Europe through Freenow. No big delivery business.	Lyft is rides only and far smaller; Uber also runs a big delivery business.^1,13
DoorDashDASH	$72.95B	The largest U.S. food delivery app, now also in Europe through Deliveroo.	DoorDash leads U.S. delivery; Uber pairs delivery with rides in one app.¹⁴

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

UBER +60.2%S&P 500 +192.1%Total return with dividends since listing in May 2019

2020202120222023202420252026

Dara KhosrowshahiCEO9.1 yrs, since 2017

Balaji KrishnamurthyCFO8 mo

Andrew MacdonaldPresident and COO1.4 yrs

Wall Street on Khosrowshahi: MixedBernstein rates it a Buy, backing Uber as the app that connects riders with self-driving cars. Bank of America also rates it a Buy but warned that robotaxi rivals have an 18 to 24 month head start.^L4,L5

Leadership sources (5) · researched Oct 2026

L1Uber has its new CEO: Dara Khosrowshahi · Engadget, 2017-08-29
L2Uber appointed a new CFO, its third in three years · Fortune, 2026-02-05
L3Uber Technologies, Inc. Form 8-K (appointment of President and Chief Operating Officer) · Uber / SEC, 2025-06-02
L4Bernstein reaffirms USD 95 target for Uber Technologies stock · ad-hoc-news.de, 2026-10-05
L5Uber Stock Is Down 28%, and the Robotaxi Clock Is Ticking. Its CEO Just Bought $10 Million of Stock Anyway · TIKR, 2026-09-24

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Will Uber's ride bookings keep growing near 20% a year as Waymo and Tesla expand their own robotaxi services?^{1,2,5,6,7,10,21,23}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If robotaxi makers keep needing Uber's riders to fill their cars, ride bookings keep growing near 20% and earnings keep compounding from a low valuation.

Robotaxis have not dented Uber's rides yet. Uber says its share of rides in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix is higher than a year ago.
Robotaxi makers keep signing up. Uber says partners have committed about 120,000 vehicles to its network.
Delivery is growing and getting more profitable. Its operating margin hit a record last quarter, and Delivery Hero would extend it to nearly 100 markets.
Uber throws off cash. It generated over $10 billion of free cash flow in the past 12 months, enough to keep shrinking its share count.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If Waymo and Tesla win riders on their own apps, Uber keeps the costly human-driver rides and loses the most profitable future ones.

Waymo is starting to go its own way. It will run its own app in Austin and Atlanta, and the Financial Times reported a fuller split, which Khosrowshahi played down.
Tesla is skipping Uber entirely. Its paid Cybercab rides in Austin are booked through Tesla's own app.
Uber is spending heavily on two fronts. It is committing large sums to robotaxis while borrowing to buy the rest of Delivery Hero.
Near-term guidance disappointed. Uber guided third-quarter earnings below what analysts expected, and Freight still loses money.

Where Delphi landsbuyWe think the bull case is more likely than today's price assumes.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Ride bookings growth■ flat

+20% last quarter excluding currency swings, to $29.0 billion^1,2

Shows whether robotaxis are taking riders from Uber, against a run of about 20% growth a quarter.

Delivery bookings growth and margin▲ improving

+25% excluding currency swings, to $27.5 billion, with operating margin at a record 3.8% of bookings^1,2

Delivery is 37% of revenue and Uber's second profit engine while rides face robotaxis.

Robotaxi cities on Uber▲ improving

7 cities last quarter, with up to 15 targeted by year-end²

Shows whether robotaxi makers choose Uber's network as Waymo launches its own app.

Next earnings report

Nov 4

In -1 days

Earnings calls page ↗

Expected earnings per share: $0.86
Expected revenue: $14.66B

What to listen for: Ride bookings growth in U.S. cities where Waymo and Tesla operate, and any update on Waymo in Austin and Atlanta.^16,17

What would prove this wrong

✕Ride bookings growth falls well below 20% in Waymo or Tesla cities.
✕More robotaxi partners follow Waymo and launch only on their own apps.
✕Robotaxi investments or Delivery Hero debt cut free cash flow and stop buybacks.
✕Regulators block or delay the Delivery Hero purchase.

Our ratingBuyLow convictionas of Nov 3 close, $66.60 · what ratings mean

Earnings are expected to grow about 30% next year, yet the stock trades at 16 times expected earnings, its lowest since at least mid-2023, pricing in much robotaxi risk.

12-month target: $88.58 (+33.0%)
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: +14.5 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $66.60

Target $88.58

bull case20% likely

$106.22 +59%

Robotaxi partners keep adding cities on Uber and ride bookings grow near 20%, so fears about Waymo fade and earnings reach the top of estimates.

$5.61 earnings per share × 19 = $106.22

base case50% likely

$94.41 +42%

Ride bookings slow slightly but stay in the high teens and delivery keeps growing about 25%, so earnings grow roughly 30% as analysts expect.

$5.48 earnings per share × 17.2 = $94.41

bear case30% likely

$67.11 +1%

Waymo and Tesla win riders in major U.S. cities, ride growth slows sharply, and robotaxi spending and Delivery Hero debt hold earnings below estimates.

$5.27 earnings per share × 12.7 = $67.11

Why these odds: Uber beat its earnings estimate in the first quarter and matched it in the second, but guided the third quarter below the $0.89 estimate. Waymo's own app in Austin and Atlanta and Tesla's launch weaken the bull case.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects earnings per share of $5.48 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $5.06 to $5.73). Today the stock trades at 15.7 times next year's earnings per share; its five-year middle is 32.2. Because earnings per share is forecast to grow fast, valuations are cut 5%, since fast growth rarely keeps its price.^{15,16,17,18,19,20,24}

What tests the call: Third-quarter 2026 results and robotaxi update (Nov 4)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 5; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $66.60, investors pay less for each dollar of Uber's earnings than for the average stock's

Uber trades at 16 times the earnings analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's earnings. That is cheaper than it has been 80% of the time over the past five years, when the middle was 32.

Analysts expect earnings to grow about 29% the year after, against about 16% for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 trades at 19 times. At the market's multiple, today's price would only make sense if Uber earned about 16% less than forecast over the next year.

Uber multiple: 16×
S&P 500 multiple: 19×
Base case: +42%
Bear case: +1%

Last earnings

No reported quarters available.