Agricultural Commodities/Milling · #72 in the Retail 100

Tilray Brands

TLRY

Pot stocks chase rescheduling headlines↑

Our rating: sellmedium conviction
12-month target: $2.67 +0.8%
Expected vs. S&P 500: -17.7 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Jan 11In 67 daysEarnings calls page ↗

Tilray grew its share count 10% in one quarter, using new stock to raise cash, retire debt and pay staff while it still loses money.

Summary

Tilray is Canada's largest cannabis seller, but most of its revenue now comes from craft beer, European drug distribution and hemp foods. Buying BrewDog has lifted sales, yet cannabis in Canada is shrinking and the company still loses money. Tilray covers deals and losses partly by selling new shares, so each existing share owns less. The stock depends on Tilray hitting its full-year profit forecast and turning cash flow positive, so the share sales can stop.

$2.65

-$13.05 (-83.12%)Past year

What Tilray Brands does

Tilray was assembled through acquisitions and sells cannabis, craft beer and imported medicines. Its cannabis business, the largest by sales in Canada, earns the best margins, while drug distribution brings in the most revenue.²

What it sells

Drug distribution36% of revenue, FY2026
CC Pharma imports branded medicines from elsewhere in Europe and resells them in Germany at lower prices. Only a 12% gross margin.
Cannabis29% of revenue, FY2026
Recreational and medical cannabis in Canada, plus medical cannabis exports to Europe. About a 40% adjusted gross margin, Tilray's highest.
Craft beer28% of revenue, FY2026
U.S. craft brands such as SweetWater, Shock Top and Blue Point, plus BrewDog, bought in 2026.
Hemp foods7% of revenue, FY2026
Manitoba Harvest hemp seeds and other hemp-based foods, a leader in U.S. hemp-based foods.

Who buys it

No customer reaches 10% of revenue. Canadian cannabis goes to provincial government wholesalers, CC Pharma supplies Germany's health system, and beer reaches drinkers through stores and bars. Europe, the Middle East and Africa were 49% of FY2026 revenue.

Where you've seen it

A Shock Top, Blue Point or SweetWater beer in a U.S. bar or grocery store.

The backstory

Tilray's cannabis business is shrinking in Canada, where adult-use revenue fell 16% last quarter, and the U.S. market is still mostly closed to it. So CEO Irwin Simon has spent five years buying growth elsewhere: U.S. craft beer, BrewDog and European drug distribution. He paid partly with new shares, and the strategy has been costly, including a $2.1B non-cash write-down in fiscal 2025.

How the business makes money

Why Tilray's growth keeps shrinking each shareholder's slice^{1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,30,31,32}

Step 1
Tilray buys brands cheaply, like BrewDog, bought out of administration for about $54M this spring.
Step 2
Cannabis earns the most, about 40¢ of each $1 after the cost of goods, but Canadian adult-use sales fell 16% last quarter.
Step 3
Drug distribution brings in a third of revenue but keeps only about 12¢ of each $1 after the cost of the medicines.
Step 4
Deals and losses use more cash than the business makes. Tilray burned more than twice as much cash as a year earlier.
What shareholders get
New shares fill the gap, up 39% in 17 months, so each share owns less. The stock is betting cash flow turns positive so the share sales can stop.

Advantages

A European medical cannabis chain

Strong advantage

Tilray's strongest position. Tilray Medical, CC Pharma and Lyphe cover growing, distribution, clinical care and patient access in Europe, where its medical cannabis sales grew 34% last year.^1,3

Canada's top cannabis seller

Strong advantage

A real lead in a slow market. Tilray says it has the highest cannabis revenue in Canada, with brands such as Redecan, Good Supply and XMG, the top cannabis drink there.²

Fourth-largest U.S. craft brewer

Supporting

Helpful, not decisive. The Brewers Association ranks Tilray fourth among U.S. craft brewers, with about $500M of yearly beverage revenue, though sales fell excluding BrewDog.^1,2

What's changing

Cannabis rule rallies fade as the share count climbs

News about easing U.S. cannabis rules lifted the stock twice, and both rallies faded: after President Trump's order in December 2025, and in April 2026, when state-licensed medical cannabis moved to Schedule III. After a DEA judge paused broader changes on September 29, the stock slid, reaching $3.36 on October 12, after Tilray's report.^{2,10,12,13,28,29,13,31}

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with Tilray Brands
Tilray Brandsthis stock	$393M	Tilray was assembled through acquisitions and sells cannabis, craft beer and imported medicines. Its cannabis business, the largest by sales in Canada, earns the best margins, while drug distribution brings in the most revenue.
Canopy GrowthCGC	$297M	Canadian cannabis grower that also sells Storz and Bickel vaporizers.	Canopy sticks to cannabis and vapes; Tilray added beer and is growing faster.^17,1
Aurora CannabisACB	$259M	Canadian grower focused on medical cannabis sold abroad, with no debt.	Aurora bets on medical exports; Tilray mixes cannabis with beer and spirits.^19,1
SNDL Inc.SNDL	$311M	Runs Canadian liquor and cannabis stores, backed by a big pile of cash.	SNDL sells through its own stores and is shrinking; Tilray makes products and buys growth.^18,1
Boston BeerSAM	$2.08B	Makes Twisted Tea, Truly and Samuel Adams. Beer and drinks only, no cannabis.	Both face shrinking beer demand; Boston Beer has no cannabis business to lean on.^20,2

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

TLRY -98.4%S&P 500 +94.1%Total return with dividends since May 2021 · log scale

20222023202420252026

Irwin SimonChairman, President and CEO5.5 yrs, since 2021

Carl MertonCFO5.5 yrs, since 2021

Denise FaltischekChief Strategy Officer and Head of M&A1.4 yrs

When Simon was named (Dec 2020), the stock moved +18.6% that day; the S&P 500 moved +0.2%.

Wall Street on Simon: MixedHaywood rates it a Hold, wanting clearer proof of revenue growth from its existing business, not acquisitions, and of cash flow. TD Cowen rates it a Buy but cut its price target to $5 on delays to international permits.^L6,L7

Leadership sources (7) · researched Oct 2026

L1Tilray Brands, Inc. Definitive Proxy Statement (DEF 14A), 2026 Annual Meeting · Tilray Brands / SEC EDGAR, 2026-09-28
L2Earnings call transcript: Tilray posts record fiscal 2026 revenue, shares rise after hours · Investing.com, 2026-07-28
L3Tilray Brands Delivers Record Q1 Fiscal 2027 Revenue and Record Q1 Gross Profit · Tilray Brands / GlobeNewswire, 2026-10-08
L4Nanaimo's Tilray to merge with Aphria to become world's largest cannabis seller · Business in Vancouver, 2020-12-16
L5Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Tilray, Aphria, Penumbra, Moderna and more · CNBC, 2020-12-16
L6Should you sell your Tilray stock? · Cantech Letter, 2026-10-09
L7TD Cowen cuts Tilray stock price target to $5 on permit delays · Investing.com, 2026-07-14

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Will Tilray reach its forecast of $68M to $75M in adjusted operating profit for fiscal 2027, and stop adding shares?^{30,31,32,33,35}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If BrewDog stays profitable and European medical cannabis keeps growing, Tilray hits its profit forecast in a stronger second half, cash flow turns positive and share sales stop.

BrewDog is already paying its way. Management says it turned profitable last quarter without cash from Tilray, and beverage gross margin rose to 41%.
European medical cannabis keeps growing. International cannabis revenue rose 21% last quarter, even as prices fell.
Debt looks manageable. Tilray says it holds more cash than debt, and only $52M of convertible notes remain due in 2027.
Carlsberg adds a new beer line. Tilray will brew and sell Carlsberg in the U.S. under a profit-sharing deal from January, though it gave no sales figure.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If profit stays thin and cash keeps draining, Tilray keeps selling shares, so even a growing business delivers less to each existing share.

Share sales keep shrinking each holder's stake. Tilray sold new shares for cash, swapped others for debt, and the count kept rising in September.
The cash drain is getting worse. Tilray burned more than twice as much free cash as a year earlier.
The profit forecast leans on a later rebound. First-quarter adjusted operating profit was only about an eighth of the full-year target.
Lenders had to give Tilray room. They agreed to skip this quarter's debt covenant test, and its unused credit line is frozen until testing resumes.

Where Delphi landssellWe think the bear case is more likely than today's price assumes.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Adjusted operating profit■ unclear

$9.2M last quarter, down 10%; the $68M to $75M full-year forecast was reaffirmed, with a stronger second half expected^31,32

Shows whether acquisitions add profit, though it excludes stock-based pay. Needs $58.8M to $65.8M more over the last three quarters.

Shares outstanding▼ worsening

147.8M on October 6, up from 131.7M in May 2026 and 106.1M in May 2025^30,31

Each new share shrinks existing holders' slice of any profit.

Sales growth by business■ unclear

Last quarter: beverage up 82% with BrewDog added, distribution up 14%, cannabis down 13%, wellness flat^31,32

Shows whether beer, distribution and cannabis each grow on their own, not just through deals.

Next earnings report

Jan 11

In 67 days

Earnings calls page ↗

Expected earnings per share: -$0.15
Expected revenue: $265M

What to listen for: Whether adjusted operating profit climbs toward a $68M to $75M pace, how many new shares Tilray issued, and whether covenant tests resume.^31,30,35

What would prove this wrong

✕Fiscal 2027 adjusted operating profit guidance is cut below $68M.
✕Share count keeps rising more than 10% a year.
✕BrewDog still loses money by the end of fiscal 2027.
✕International medical cannabis growth drops below 10% as prices fall.

Our ratingSellMedium convictionas of Nov 3 close, $2.65 · what ratings mean

Acquisitions keep sales growing, but new shares from note swaps, market sales and stock awards shrink each holder's slice, leaving expected returns about 17 points behind the S&P 500.

12-month target: $2.67 (+0.8%)
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: -17.7 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $2.65

Target $2.67

bull case15% likely

$3.25 +23%

BrewDog stays profitable, Carlsberg beers add sales from January, adjusted operating profit beats $75M and share sales stop, so investors pay more per dollar of sales.

$7.36 sales per share × 0.4 = $3.25

base case50% likely

$2.91 +10%

Adjusted operating profit lands between $68M and $75M on a stronger second half, and the remaining $52M of notes become shares.

$7.23 sales per share × 0.4 = $2.91

bear case35% likely

$2.08 -22%

Canadian cannabis keeps shrinking, profit misses the forecast and cash use continues, so Tilray sells more shares at lower prices.

$7.01 sales per share × 0.3 = $2.08

Why these odds: Revenue and adjusted operating profit missed estimates, fiscal 2028 earnings estimates fell from $0.74 to $0.17 in 90 days, and lenders skipped a covenant test. The forecast held and BrewDog turned profitable, so base stays likeliest.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects sales per share of $7.23 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $6.80 to $7.48). Today the stock trades at 0.3 times next year's sales per share; its five-year middle is 1.73.^{31,30,32,33,35,36,37,38,13,1,2}

What tests the call: FQ2 2027 earnings: adjusted operating profit pace and new shares issued (~2027-01)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 14; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $2.65, Tilray Brands is cheaper than usual against its own sales

Tilray Brands trades at 0.3 times the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's sales. That is cheaper than it has been 80% of the time over the past five years, when the middle was 1.7.

Analysts expect sales to fall about 5% the year after.

Tilray Brands multiple: 0.3×
Its usual multiple: 1.7×
Base case: +10%
Bear case: −22%

The skewOur bear case loses about $2.19 for every $1 our base case makes. That ratio, how much you stand to lose against how much you stand to make, is the skew.

Last earnings

No reported quarters available.