Apparel/Footwear · #69 in the Retail 100

Nike

NKE

Our rating: hold
12-month target: $47.10 +22.4%
Expected vs. S&P 500: +8.1 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Dec 17In 42 daysEarnings calls page ↗

Even if earnings rebound as analysts expect, Nike's fiscal 2028 profit of about $1.53 a share would still fall short of its $1.64 dividend.

Summary

Nike is the world's largest sportswear company, repairing a strategy that pushed it away from the stores that sell its shoes. CEO Elliott Hill's fix is working in North America, its biggest market, but China, Jordan and Converse are shrinking. Nike expects sales to fall by high single digits this fiscal year and adjusted earnings, which leave out restructuring costs, of $1.15 to $1.35 a share. It can pay the dividend from cash for a while, so the stock depends on earnings recovering before investors start to doubt the payout.

$38.48

-$29.14 (-43.09%)Past year

What Nike does

Nike is the world's largest seller of athletic shoes and clothing. Outside factories make nearly everything, so Nike's profit depends on how strong the brand is and how much it can sell at full price.³¹

What it sells

Footwear64% of revenue, FY2026
Sneakers for running, basketball and everyday wear. Factories in Vietnam make about half. Jordan, sold within Nike, brought in $7.0B across shoes and clothes.
Apparel29% of revenue, FY2026
Sportswear and licensed college and pro team gear, sold through the same stores as its shoes.
Equipment5% of revenue, FY2026
Bags, socks, balls and other sports gear under the Nike name.
Converse3% of revenue, FY2026
Chuck Taylor All Star sneakers and casual wear, a separate brand Nike owns and reports on its own.

Who buys it

Mostly other retailers. Sales to stores and distributors were 59% of FY2026 revenue and Nike's own stores and app 38%. The U.S. is 44% of revenue, and its three largest U.S. customers buy 29% of U.S. sales, so store partners carry real weight.

Where you've seen it

Converse Chuck Taylors and Jordan sneakers with the Jumpman logo are both Nike brands.

The backstory

From 2020, CEO John Donahoe pushed Nike to sell through its own stores and app, dropping retailers like Dillard's, Urban Outfitters and Zappos. Analysts say Hoka and On took that shelf space. In October 2024 the board replaced him with Nike veteran Elliott Hill, who has reorganized the company by sport, is rebuilding retailer ties, and ships fewer of its overused sneaker styles.

How the business makes money

Why Nike's profit depends on selling at full price^{1,3,4,10,11,12,13,20,27,30}

Step 1
Retailers are carrying more Nike again. Sales to store partners rose 6% last fiscal year.
Step 2
Outside factories make nearly everything, so Nike's job is the design, the brand and the selling.
Step 3
Shipping fewer overused styles like Dunks is meant to end heavy discounting. Nike keeps about 43¢ of each $1 of sales after product costs.
Step 4
Its Pace program targets $2.5B of cost savings through fiscal 2031, adding to what Nike keeps and helping absorb tariffs.
What shareholders get
Shareholders get $1.64 a share a year, about $2.4B in total, more than Nike now earns. The gap comes out of cash until earnings recover.

Advantages

Reach in global sports

Major advantage

Nike's core strength still sells. Global football grew by double digits in all four Nike regions last quarter.⁴

Space on retailers' shelves

Strong advantage

Strong, and being won back. Nike sold $27.5B through store partners in fiscal 2026, regaining shelf space it gave up during its push to sell direct.³

Cash on hand

Supporting

A cushion, not an edge. Nike had about $8.4B in cash and short-term investments at the end of August. Debt was $7.9B.^1,2

What's changing

The turnaround gets harder before it gets better

On October 1 Nike cut its fiscal 2027 outlook and announced Pace, a restructuring with about $1B in charges, fewer jobs, a campus in India and three regions instead of four. The stock hit a 13-year low the next day. Nike will set long-term targets at an investor day on November 17.^1,4,5,7,36

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with Nike
Nikethis stock	$57.15B	Nike is the world's largest seller of athletic shoes and clothing. Outside factories make nearly everything, so Nike's profit depends on how strong the brand is and how much it can sell at full price.
AdidasADDYY	$30.95B	German sportswear brand strong in football, riding retro sneakers and World Cup demand.	Adidas is growing again while Nike's total sales shrink.¹⁴
On HoldingONON	$10.93B	Swiss premium running brand, known for its hollow-pod soles and high prices.	On took running shelf space while Nike pulled back; Nike's running grows again now.^4,15
Deckers (Hoka)DECK	$10.95B	Hoka makes thick-cushioned running shoes, owned by Deckers alongside UGG boots.	Hoka won runners with max cushioning as Nike retreated; Nike answers with Vomero.^4,16

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

NKE -50.2%S&P 500 +32.1%Total return with dividends since Oct 2024

20252026

Elliott HillPresident and CEO2 yrs

David M. DentonEVP and CFO2 mo

Mark ParkerExecutive Chairman6.8 yrs, since 2020

Venkatesh AlagirisamyEVP and COO10 mo

Jane EwingEVP and Chief Commercial Officer1 mo

When Hill was named (Sep 2024), the stock moved +6.8% that day; the S&P 500 moved -0.2%.

Wall Street on Hill: NegativeMost analysts rate the stock a Hold. BofA rates it a Sell and cut its price target to $24 after Nike's latest outlook, seeing no sales recovery before fiscal 2028. Bernstein rates it a Buy but wants a medium-term plan at the November investor day.^L7,L8,L9

Leadership sources (9) · researched Oct 2026

L1NIKE Inc. Board of Directors Announces Long Time Nike Veteran Elliott Hill to Return as President and Chief Executive Officer; John Donahoe to Retire from Nike · NIKE, Inc. / Business Wire, 2024-09-19
L2Nike stock jumps 8% as investors bet new CEO Elliott Hill can fix sneaker maker's woes · Fortune, 2024-09-20
L3NIKE, Inc. Announces Planned CFO Transition · NIKE, Inc., 2026-06-23
L4Mark Parker, Executive Chairman · NIKE, Inc., 2026-10-11
L5NIKE, Inc. Announces Senior Leadership Changes to Accelerate "Win Now" Actions · NIKE, Inc., 2025-12-03
L6NIKE, Inc. Announces Changes to Senior Leadership Team · NIKE, Inc., 2026-08-27
L7BofA cuts Nike stock price target on limited sales turnaround visibility · Investing.com, 2026-10-02
L8Bernstein cuts Nike stock price target on worsened outlook · Investing.com, 2026-10-02
L9NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-22

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Will Nike's earnings rise about 22%, from roughly $1.25 a share this fiscal year to the $1.53 analysts expect for fiscal 2028, which ends May 2028?^{1,3,4,6,9,17,32,33}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If North American growth spreads abroad and discounting ends, cost savings and fuller prices lift earnings back above the dividend, and estimates start rising again.

Nike is winning back store shelves at home. Sales to store partners in North America rose 9% last quarter.
Its sports products are selling again. Running grew by double digits, and World Cup team kit sales doubled from the 2022 tournament.
Nike is keeping more of each sale. Gross margin, the share of sales left after product costs, rose to 42.8%, mostly from cheaper warehousing and shipping.
Big savings are coming, though mostly later. Nike's Pace program targets $2.5B of cost savings through fiscal 2031, most of it in fiscal 2029 and 2030.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If China, Jordan and older sneaker styles keep shrinking, earnings stay well below the $1.64 dividend, estimates keep falling, and investors start to doubt the payout.

Analysts are still cutting. The fiscal 2028 estimate fell from $2.13 to $1.53 a share in a month, with no increases.
China is getting worse, and Nike expects more of it. Greater China sales fell 26% excluding currency, and the finance chief expects further decline this year.
Its older sneaker hits are fading. Sportswear, just under half of sales, fell by low double digits, led by a nearly 50% drop in Dunks.
Even the weak forecast flatters earnings. It leaves out about $0.15 a share of restructuring costs.

Where Delphi landsholdWe think today's price already weighs both sides fairly.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Revenue by region▼ worsening

Last quarter: North America up 2%, Greater China down 22%, other regions down 2% to 5%¹

Shows whether North American gains can outweigh declines elsewhere, especially in China.

Store partners vs. Nike's own channels▼ worsening

Last quarter: store partners down 1% to $6.8B; Nike's own stores and app down 8% to $4.1B^1,4

Tracks Hill's shift back to retailers, with Nike's own stores and app now about 38% of sales.

Jordan Brand revenue▼ worsening

Down by the mid-teens last quarter, after a 3% drop in fiscal 2026^3,4

Jordan brought in $7.0B, 15% of fiscal 2026 sales, and Nike is shrinking it on purpose.

Next earnings report

Dec 17

In 42 days

Earnings calls page ↗

Expected earnings per share: $0.34
Expected revenue: $11.13B

What to listen for: Whether North America keeps growing while China and Jordan shrink, and whether Nike holds its $1.15 to $1.35 forecast. MarketBeat estimates December 17, though Nike has not confirmed the date.²¹

What would prove this wrong

✕North American sales start falling again despite more retailer shelf space.
✕Greater China keeps shrinking into fiscal 2028.
✕Nike cuts its dividend because earnings do not recover.
✕Fiscal 2028 earnings estimates keep falling, toward this year's $1.25 level.
✕November's investor day sets long-term targets below what analysts expect.

Our ratingHoldas of Nov 3 close, $38.48 · what ratings mean

At about 27 times the next year's expected earnings, near its five-year norm, Nike's slow recovery and 4% dividend leave it only modestly ahead of the S&P 500.

12-month target: $47.10 (+22.4%)
Plus dividend: +4.2%
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: +8.1 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $38.48

Target $47.10

bull case20% likely

$67.74 +76%

North America keeps growing, China steadies and Pace savings arrive early, so fiscal 2028 earnings beat forecasts.

$2.13 earnings per share × 31.9 = $67.74

base case50% likely

$46.74 +21%

Revenue falls by high single digits this year and steadies in fiscal 2028 as discounting fades, bringing earnings in line with forecasts.

$1.68 earnings per share × 27.8 = $46.74

bear case30% likely

$33.93 -12%

China, Jordan and older sneaker styles keep shrinking and tariffs persist, so fiscal 2028 earnings stay near $1.25 and the dividend looks stretched.

$1.44 earnings per share × 23.6 = $33.93

Why these odds: In the month after the October 1 report, analysts cut fiscal 2028 estimates from $2.13 to $1.53 a share, with 28 cuts and no raises. With estimates still falling, the bear case gets more weight than the bull.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects earnings per share of $1.68 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $1.20 to $2.57). Today the stock trades at 28.1 times next year's earnings per share; its five-year middle is 28.5. Because earnings per share is forecast to grow fast, valuations are cut 1%, since fast growth rarely keeps its price.^{1,17,18,19,21,22,23,24,29,32,33,34,36,35}

What tests the call: Investor day, where Nike sets long-term targets; then fiscal Q2 earnings, estimated by MarketBeat for December 17 (Nov 17)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 27; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $38.48, investors pay 50% more than they pay for the average stock's earnings

Nike trades at 28 times the earnings analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's earnings. That is below its five-year middle of 29.

Analysts expect earnings to grow about 23% the year after, against about 16% for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 trades at 19 times. The premium is a bet that Nike's earnings keep growing faster than the market's for years, not just next year.

Nike multiple: 28×
S&P 500 multiple: 19×
Base case: +21%
Bear case: −12%

The skewOur bear case loses about 55¢ for every $1 our base case makes. That ratio, how much you stand to lose against how much you stand to make, is the skew.

Last earnings

No reported quarters available.