Movies/Entertainment · #12 in the Retail 100

AMC Entertainment

AMC

Our rating: sellmedium conviction
12-month target: $3.29 +3.1%
Expected vs. S&P 500: -15.4 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Nov 4In -1 daysListen to the call, 5:00 PM ET ↗

AMC needs fourth-quarter North American box office 21% above last year's to cover its 2026 bills, or it keeps selling new shares.

Summary

AMC is the largest U.S. movie theater chain, and it still carries heavy debt from the pandemic. To cover the gap, it has repeatedly issued new shares, for cash and in exchange for debt, and its share count rose 74% in a year. Moviegoing is recovering, and AMC is refinancing to push its debt deadlines further out. The stock depends on box office getting strong enough for AMC to pay its bills from its own cash.

$3.28

+$0.70 (+27.13%)Past year

What AMC Entertainment does

AMC is the world's largest movie theater chain, with 855 theaters in the U.S. and Europe. Studios take about half of each ticket, while snacks cost AMC only about 20 cents per dollar of sales.²⁸

What it sells

Movie tickets55% of revenue, FY2025
Studios take about 48% of ticket sales as film rent, and charge more for the biggest hits.
Food and drinks34% of revenue, FY2025
Popcorn, soda and dine-in meals. Ingredients cost about 20% of sales, so AMC keeps most of each dollar.
Ads and fees11% of revenue, FY2025
Pre-show screen advertising, online ticket fees, the Stubs loyalty program and a co-branded credit card.

Who buys it

Moviegoers, who made 219 million visits in 2025. Stubs loyalty members made 51% of U.S. attendance. AMC depends on a few suppliers: seven studios provided 83% of its U.S. box office, so their release schedule sets its sales.

Where you've seen it

The AMC Stubs A-List subscription, which lets members see up to four movies a week.

The backstory

AMC came out of the pandemic with heavy debt, and North American box office has stayed below the level it needs to cover its costs from its own cash. Box office was $8.66B in 2025, and AMC filled the gap by selling stock and swapping debt for shares. Its plan is to add premium screens that charge more, hold down costs, and push its debt deadlines out.

How the business makes money

Why packed theaters still leave little for AMC shareholders^{1,2,5,6,11,19}

Step 1
Big studio films draw crowds. North American box office rose 29% in Q3 2026.
Step 2
Studios take about 48¢ of each $1 of ticket sales. Snacks are the better business: AMC keeps about 80¢ of each $1 after ingredients.
Step 3
Rent and staff cost about the same whether theaters are full or empty, so busy quarters are very profitable and slow ones are not.
Step 4
Interest on about $4B of debt and theater rent get paid first. Shortfalls have been covered by selling new shares.
What shareholders get
Shares outstanding rose 74% in a year, so each share owns less of AMC. The stock is betting box office grows enough to pay the bills without that.

Advantages

The largest U.S. chain

Strong advantage

AMC's main strength. With 845 theaters in the U.S. and Europe, it brought in about 1.5 times Cinemark's revenue in Q2.^1,14

Investors keep buying its new shares

Strong advantage

Strong, but costly to holders. Individual investors keep buying AMC's repeated share sales, funding losses and debt repayments. Q2 alone included a $200M direct sale.^1,2,12

Premium screens

Supporting

Helpful, not yet proven. AMC plans 100 to 250 more premium screens, but the evidence they pay off comes from one film.²

What's changing

From survival mode to pushing debt out to 2031

AMC is buying time at a high price. After a record Q2, it arranged a $3.97B refinancing, expected to close October 5, that swaps its 2029 secured bonds and bank loans for debt due years later. AMC also launched Leawood Films to distribute independent movies.^{5,6,7,9,13,27}

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with AMC Entertainment
AMC Entertainmentthis stock	$2.93B	AMC is the world's largest movie theater chain, with 855 theaters in the U.S. and Europe. Studios take about half of each ticket, while snacks cost AMC only about 20 cents per dollar of sales.
CinemarkCNK	$4.52B	Runs movie theaters across the U.S. and Latin America, with tight cost control.	Cinemark has modest debt and pays dividends; AMC still carries heavy debt.^14,15
IMAXIMAX	$2.86B	Licenses giant-screen tech to theaters for a cut of ticket sales.	IMAX profits from premium screens without owning theaters or paying their rent.¹⁶
Marcus CorporationMCS	$841M	Runs Midwest movie theaters, with a hotel business on the side.	Marcus grows about as fast as AMC with far less debt.¹⁷
Regal (Cineworld, private)private	—	Big U.S. theater chain, now private after parent Cineworld went through bankruptcy.	Regal fights AMC for the same U.S. blockbuster crowds, but isn't public.

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

AMC -98.8%S&P 500 +61.8%Price change since Nov 2021, the earliest data available · log scale

20222023202420252026

Adam AronChairman, CEO and President10 yrs, since 2016

Sean GoodmanEVP, International Operations, CFO and …6.6 yrs, since 2020

Dan EllisEVP, Chief US Operations, Development a…4.6 yrs

Wall Street on Aron: MixedWedbush raised its price target to $4 and rates it a Buy after a record second quarter. Citi rates it a Sell, citing heavy debt, and two other firms rate it a Hold.^L6,L7

Leadership sources (7) · researched Oct 2026

L1AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Names Adam Aron as CEO and President · AMC Entertainment Investor Relations, 2015-12-15
L2AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Form 10-K/A for fiscal 2025 · AMC Entertainment Investor Relations, 2026-04-30
L3AMC CEO Calls Robinhood Stock Tokens 'Contemptible' and 'Vile' · Decrypt, 2026-09-03
L4AMC Entertainment Selects Sean Goodman as Its New CFO, Succeeding AMC CFO Craig Ramsey Who Will Retire in February 2020 · AMC Entertainment Investor Relations, 2019-10-11
L5AMC Entertainment Promotes Dan Ellis to EVP Chief Operations & Development Officer and Selects Eliot Hamlisch as EVP Chief Marketing Officer · AMC Entertainment Investor Relations, 2022-02-28
L6AMC Entertainment Hldgs Analyst Price Targets · Benzinga, 2026-10-09
L7AMC Stock Faces Heavy Debt Refi, Analyst Skepticism · Timothy Sykes, 2026-09-29

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Will 2026 North American box office reach the roughly $10.4B AMC needs to generate cash for the full year, letting it cut debt without selling more shares?^{1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10,11}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If moviegoing keeps recovering, AMC earns enough cash to start paying down debt and stops selling new shares.

Moviegoing is coming back. AMC's July–August revenue rose 42% to $1.33B.
A strong quarter now produces real cash. Q2 brought a record $321M of adjusted operating profit and $190M of free cash flow.
Debt deadlines are moving out. The new debt comes due between 2031 and 2033.
Premium screens earn far more than their share. About 750 of them, 8% of AMC's screens, took over half of ticket revenue on The Odyssey's opening weekend.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If box office stalls, AMC must keep selling shares or borrowing at high rates, and each share keeps losing value.

The year needs a much bigger finish than last year's. Box office through September was $7.76B, and the fourth quarter of 2025 added only $2.19B.
Each share owns a shrinking slice of AMC. In the first half it sold $335M of new shares and swapped $193M of debt for shares.
The new debt is expensive. The loan with second claim on AMC's assets pays 11.25%, and the first-claim bonds pay 8.875%.
Shareholders stand last in line. Liabilities exceeded assets by $1.45B at June 30, and about $4B of corporate debt gets paid first.

Where Delphi landssellWe think the bear case is more likely than today's price assumes.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

North American box office, 2026▲ improving

$7.76B through September, including $3.05B last quarter (up 29%), against $8.66B for all of 2025^2,10,11

AMC says it needs about $10.4B a year to bring in more cash than it spends.

Free cash flow▲ improving

$190.1M last quarter; $15.4M for the first half, versus negative $328.1M a year earlier¹

Shows whether AMC can pay down debt without selling more shares.

Shares outstanding▼ worsening

892.6M on July 22, 2026, up 74% from 512.9M a year earlier^8,19,26

A rising share count means each share owns a smaller slice of any recovery.

Next earnings report

Nov 4

In -1 days

Listen to the call, 5:00 PM ET ↗

Expected earnings per share: $0.13
Expected revenue: —

What to listen for: Third-quarter free cash flow and adjusted operating profit after July–August revenue rose 42%, and whether AMC sold new shares during the quarter.^9,18

What would prove this wrong

✕Q4 2026 box office falls short, leaving the full year below $10.4B.
✕AMC starts selling stock again to pay for operations or interest.
✕Free cash flow turns negative in 2027 despite a strong lineup of films.
✕Studios shorten the time films play only in theaters, reducing attendance per film.

Our ratingSellMedium convictionas of Nov 2 close, $3.19 · what ratings mean

Analysts expect sales to grow only about 4% a year, yet the stock trades above its typical price per dollar of sales, so it should trail the S&P 500.

12-month target: $3.29 (+3.1%)
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: -15.4 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $3.19

Target $3.29

bull case30% likely

$4.28 +34%

Box office keeps growing, so AMC generates cash, starts repaying debt without selling new shares, and investors pay more for each dollar of sales.

$6.67 sales per share × 0.6 = $4.28

base case45% likely

$3.08 -3%

Sales grow about 4% a year, as analysts expect, while AMC roughly breaks even on cash and sells a few more shares.

$6.53 sales per share × 0.5 = $3.08

bear case25% likely

$2.47 -23%

Box office stalls below $10B and cash runs short, so AMC sells about 100M more shares and each share owns a smaller slice of sales.

$6.36 sales per share × 0.4 = $2.47

Why these odds: Q3 box office rose 29%, and analysts halved their expected 2027 loss to 8 cents a share in 90 days. We assume no new shares beyond today's 892.6M, since $833M of August cash covers any expected shortfall. Exchangeable notes convert near $5.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects sales per share of $6.53 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $6.18 to $6.80). Today the stock trades at 0.5 times next year's sales per share; its five-year middle is 0.36.^{1,8,9,10,20,21,22,24,25,26}

What tests the call: Q3 2026 earnings: free cash flow and whether AMC sold new shares (Nov 4)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 5; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $3.19, AMC Entertainment costs more than usual against its own sales

AMC Entertainment trades at 0.5 times the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's sales. That is above its five-year middle of 0.4.

Analysts expect sales to grow about 4% the year after.

AMC Entertainment multiple: 0.5×
Its usual multiple: 0.4×
Base case: −3%
Bear case: −23%

Last earnings

Q2 2026 results, reported Jul 20

Record revenue and adjusted operating profit as attendance rose 13.5% and AMC grew faster than the industry's box office.^1,2,3,8

Reported Jul 20	Expected	Actual	Difference
Earnings per share	-$0.05	$0.14	+380.0%
Revenue	—	—	—

Beat expectations in 3 of the last 6 quarters

Stock reaction: +26.8% on the day of the report (closed $2.46 on Jul 20; results released before the open)

Why the stock moved

Up: adjusted earnings of $0.14 per share, against an expected loss of $0.02.
Up: adjusted operating profit topped $300M for the first time, up 70%, with margin up 6.5 percentage points.
Up: $190M of free cash flow and $778M of cash eased near-term worries about funding.
Offset: the average share count rose 67% from a year earlier, so each share got a smaller gain.

What it means for the stock: Strengthened. AMC showed it can generate cash in a strong box office quarter, which helped set up the September refinancing. Selling new shares remains the cost of getting here.