Advertising/Marketing Services · #85 in the Retail 100

Trump Media & Technology Group

DJT

Our rating: Not rated
No analyst publishes revenue or earnings estimates for Trump Media, so there is no consensus to build a rating on.
12-month target: —
Expected vs. S&P 500: —
Next earnings: Nov 17In 12 days

The management forecast used to value Trump Media in its fusion merger calls for $34M of 2026 revenue; through June, the company booked $2.5M.

Summary

Trump Media owns Truth Social, the app President Trump posts on, but its apps bring in under $2M a quarter. Its value rests on about $1.9B of crypto, cash and investments raised from investors. It plans an all-stock merger with TAE Technologies, a fusion developer that loses money, whose owners would get half the company. On November 30, noteholders can demand nearly $1B back, about half that pile, and whatever remains has to fund TAE.

$5.97

-$8.55 (-58.88%)Past year

What Trump Media & Technology Group does

Trump Media owns Truth Social, the social network where President Trump usually posts first. The apps earn little, so the company's value rests on about $1.9B of crypto, cash and investments at June 30.^1,23,8

What it sells

Advertising81% of revenue, H1 2026
Ads on Truth Social and the Truth+ streaming service, including a barter deal that lifted second-quarter sales.
Subscriptions15% of revenue, H1 2026
Truth+ streaming plans and, since August, Truth API, a paid fast feed of top accounts' posts sold to trading firms.
Truth.Fi funds5% of revenue, H1 2026
Branded exchange-traded funds and managed accounts. Trump Media earns small management fees on them.
Bitcoin treasuryNo revenue; the largest asset
About 14,139 bitcoin at July 31, the latest count disclosed. It earns no revenue, but its price swings drive most quarterly profit or loss.

Who buys it

Advertisers and Truth+ subscribers, mostly conservative American users, and since August, trading firms buying Truth API. Sales are concentrated: one ad platform supplied about half of first-half revenue, so losing it would cut sales sharply.

Where you've seen it

Many of President Trump's announcements appear first as Truth Social posts, then as screenshots in news coverage.

How the business makes money

The backstory

Trump Media listed in March 2024 with an app that earned little, then raised about $2.4B in mid-2025 from new shares and convertible notes to buy bitcoin. Its unpledged coins cost about $106,000 each, so falling crypto prices drove most of a $644M first-half 2026 loss. In December 2025 it agreed to merge with TAE Technologies; interim CEO Kevin McGurn, who replaced Devin Nunes in April, says the treasury was built for such a deal.

Trump Media's apps earn little, so its value comes from investment assets. Those assets now have three jobs: repay noteholders, fund TAE's fusion plant, and cover the company's own losses.^1,2,3,4,6,7

1 · AudienceTruth SocialThe president usually posts on Truth Social first. That draws an audience, but ads and subscriptions brought in under $2M last quarter.
2 · New revenueTruth APITrading firms pay for a fast feed of top accounts' posts. The company hopes this data business grows faster than ads.
3 · TreasuryBitcoin pileMoney raised from investors bought bitcoin. Its price, not the apps, drives most of each quarter's profit or loss.
4 · Debt testNote repaymentNoteholders can demand their money back on November 30. Some bitcoin, cash and securities are pledged to them as collateral.
5 · Next betTAE mergerWhat remains funds TAE, which has already borrowed $200M from Trump Media and could draw up to $100M more by November 29.
6 · PayoffDa Vinci plantTAE plans a first 50-megawatt fusion plant called Da Vinci. No fusion device has yet produced sustained net energy.

Advantages

The president's own platform

Major advantage

The biggest advantage, and the one no rival can copy. President Trump usually posts on Truth Social first, which is why Trump Media could pitch trading firms a fast feed at up to $100,000 a month. The value is tied to one person: McGurn says the brand will outlast this administration, but the president is the main draw.^4,8

A large balance sheet for its size

Strong advantage

Meaningful, but it could shrink by about half on November 30. At June 30, Trump Media reported about $1.9B of crypto, cash and investments against about $1B of debt. That cushion is what TAE wanted, and it is why the stock trades far above what the apps earn.^1,2,4

A loyal retail shareholder base

Supporting

Helpful for raising money, not for profit. McGurn says TAE wanted access to Trump Media's retail investors. That base let the company sell about 20 million shares at $14 to $37 through a standing equity line.^1,4

What's changing

From bitcoin treasury to fusion holding company

Trump Media is narrowing its bets. In August it dropped a planned Crypto.com token treasury, cut a planned prediction-market feature back to a marketing deal and launched Truth API. It filed merger papers with TAE on September 30 and aims to close by year-end. Meanwhile the shares hit record lows in October.^2,4,10,11,24

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with Trump Media & Technology Group
Trump Media & Technology Groupthis stock	$1.66B	Trump Media owns Truth Social, the social network where President Trump usually posts first. The apps earn little, so the company's value rests on about $1.9B of crypto, cash and investments at June 30.
X (part of SpaceX)SPCX	$1.97T	Elon Musk's mass-market social network, now inside SpaceX alongside the Grok chatbot.	X reaches a mass audience; Truth Social holds the president's first posts.¹⁹
RumbleRUM	—	Video platform popular with conservative creators, earning from ads and subscriptions.	Rumble stays a media business; Trump Media is turning into a fusion holding company.
StrategyMSTR	—	Software company turned bitcoin holder, buying coins with money from stock and debt sales.	Strategy is a pure bitcoin bet; Trump Media is spending its treasury on fusion.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems (private)private	—	MIT spinout building tokamak fusion machines with powerful superconducting magnets, funded privately.	Commonwealth raises private capital; TAE would fund itself through Trump Media's public shareholders.

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Can Trump Media pay noteholders who demand cash on November 30, up to about $984M, and still fund TAE's fusion work through 2027 without selling new shares?^{1,2,4,8,13,17,21,23}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If bitcoin holds up and the merger closes, Trump Media repays the notes from its own assets and funds TAE without diluting shareholders.

Bitcoin has recovered since July. It traded near $80,000 in late October, so the 14,139 coins held on July 31 would be worth about $1.1B, up from $891M.
The merger should get the votes. The Trump trust holds about 41% of shares and agreed to vote yes; one required proposal needs about 9% more.
Truth API is a real paying product. More than ten firms signed by August; at the discounted $60,000 a month Reuters reported, ten would out-earn all of 2025.
TAE has a nearer-term business. Its power-electronics unit sells equipment that data centers can use, and TAE's projections show it earning revenue years before fusion does.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If noteholders take cash and TAE's costs keep rising, the combined company runs short and sells new shares, shrinking each holder's slice.

Noteholders have every reason to take cash. Their notes convert at about $34.72 a share, so $1,000 of notes would become shares worth about $170 at today's roughly $6.
Current holders give up half the company. TAE's owners would receive about 293 million new shares, roughly doubling the share count.
TAE cannot fund itself. Its auditors flagged substantial doubt about its ability to continue, after a $184M net loss in the year to March 2026.
The core app is shrinking. July visitors fell about 36% from a year earlier, per Similarweb estimates in The New York Times, which weakens ad sales and the data pitch.

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Quarterly revenue▲ improving

$1.7M in Q2 2026, up 89% from a year earlier^1,23

Shows whether Truth API and Truth+ can close the gap to management's merger forecasts.

Bitcoin held■ unclear

About 14,139 bitcoin at July 31 (latest disclosed), worth $891M at that day's price^1,17,20

The largest asset. At the July 31 count, each $10,000 move in bitcoin's price changes its value by about $140M.

Notes outstanding■ unclear

About $984M face value, convertible at about $34.72 a share^1,2

Holders can demand cash on November 30; repayment shrinks the money left for TAE.

Next earnings report

Nov 17

In 12 days

Expected earnings per share: —
Expected revenue: —

What to listen for: How much of the nearly $1B of notes holders will demand in cash on November 30, how Trump Media will pay, and what Truth API earned.^1,4

What would prove this wrong

✕Quarterly revenue climbs toward management's $34M forecast for 2026.
✕Noteholders accept stock or new notes instead of cash on November 30.
✕TAE sells power equipment to data centers at scale before fusion arrives.
✕Shareholders reject the TAE merger, or it fails to close.

Not ratedNo recommendation yet

No analyst publishes revenue or earnings estimates for Trump Media, so there is no consensus to build a rating on.

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $5.66

Target $12.50

bull case15% likely

$17.28 +205%

The merger closes, bitcoin holds near $80,000, the notes are repaid from assets, and Truth API and TAE equipment sales start lifting revenue toward management's forecasts.

$0.89 sales per share × 19.4 = $17.28

base case50% likely

$15.71 +178%

The merger closes and the notes are repaid, leaving enough cash for 2027, but revenue stays far below projections and the shares track bitcoin and fusion news.

$0.89 sales per share × 17.6 = $15.71

bear case35% likely

$5.87 +4%

Bitcoin falls, repaying the notes drains the treasury, and the combined company sells new shares to fund TAE, shrinking each holder's stake.

$0.45 sales per share × 13 = $5.87

Why these odds: No analyst estimates exist, so forecasts are management's merger projections, far above actual sales; low uses actual sales. History uses actual sales, so it is not comparable. Assumed 299M merger shares, none for cash burn. Record-low shares and the note deadline weigh toward bear.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects sales per share of $0.89 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $0.01 to $0.89). Today the stock trades at 21.9 times next year's sales per share; its five-year middle is 1356. Because sales per share is forecast to grow fast, valuations are cut 30%, since fast growth rarely keeps its price.^{1,2,4,13,14,15,16,17}

What tests the call: Q3 2026 results, then the November 30 note repurchase date (Nov 30)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 28; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $5.66, Trump Media & Technology Group is cheaper than usual against its own sales

Trump Media & Technology Group trades at 22 times the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's sales. That is cheaper than it has been 80% of the time over the past five years, when the middle was 1356.

Analysts expect sales to grow about 245% the year after.

Trump Media & Technology Group multiple: 22×
Its usual multiple: 1356×
Base case: +178%
Bear case: +4%

Last earnings

Q2 2026 results, reported Aug 10

A $238M quarterly loss, mostly from non-cash markdowns on bitcoin and related securities, on under $2M of revenue.^1,23,25,26

Reported Aug 10	Expected	Actual	Difference
Earnings per share	—	-$0.86	—
Revenue	—	—	—

Beat expectations in 0 of the last 6 quarters

Stock reaction: About -5% the next trading day; results came after the close, following an 8% drop that day

Why the stock moved

Down: falling crypto prices caused about $190M of non-cash losses on bitcoin, the Cronos token and bitcoin-related securities.
Down: revenue stayed tiny even after rising from a year earlier, partly lifted by a barter ad deal.
Partly offset: the company said Truth API, launched August 1, had more than ten signed customers.

What it means for the stock: Weakened it. The loss shrank the cushion before the November note date, and revenue stayed far below what the merger projections assume.