Medical/Nursing Services · Outside the Retail 100

Hims & Hers Health

HIMS

Our rating: hold
12-month target: $28.92 +14.6%
Expected vs. S&P 500: -3.9 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Nov 9In 4 days

Hims swapped its own high-margin Wegovy copies for reselling Novo's branded drugs, which revived U.S. growth but helped cut gross margin from 76% to 64%.

Summary

Hims & Hers sells cash-pay prescriptions online by subscription, mostly for hair loss, sexual health, skin and weight. After regulators and Novo Nordisk pushed back on its compounded Wegovy copies in February, it switched to reselling Novo's branded drugs, which revived U.S. growth but cut margins. Acquisitions abroad, most recently Australia's Eucalyptus, lifted international sales to 17% of revenue. The stock depends on profit margins recovering in 2027 as branded weight loss and overseas sales grow.

$25.73

-$18.66 (-42.04%)Past year

What Hims & Hers Health does

Hims & Hers runs online clinics where patients pay cash for prescriptions by subscription. Its 2.9 million subscribers are about eight times LifeMD's, and its own pharmacies fill most prescriptions.^{1,2,3,4,14,24}

What it sells

Hims (men's, U.S.)Under half of revenue, Q2 2026 (our estimate)
Hair loss, sexual health, skin and testosterone. The oldest lines, and management says scale still lifts their margins.
Hers (women's, U.S.)About a third of revenue, Q2 2026 (over 40% of U.S.)
Weight loss, skin and menopause care, and the fastest grower. Weight loss now competes on equal terms with Ro, WW and Lilly's own site.
International17% of revenue, Q2 2026
Bought rather than built: ZAVA in Europe, Livewell in Canada, Eucalyptus in Australia. The UK, Australia and Germany each run above $100M a year.

Who buys it

Individual patients paying out of pocket, not insurers. About one in five subscribers is treated for more than one condition, and the average subscriber paid $92 a month last quarter. No customer is material on its own.

Where you've seen it

Its Super Bowl ads in 2025 and 2026, or Hims and Hers shampoo and supplements on store shelves.

How the business makes money

The backstory

Compounded semaglutide, a pharmacy-made copy of Wegovy, became Hims's fastest-growing line in 2024. Hims kept selling personalized versions after the FDA declared the shortage over in February 2025, and Novo ended a sales deal over it that June. In February 2026 Hims launched a $49 copy of Novo's Wegovy pill, pulled it within days under FDA pressure, and was sued by Novo anyway. In March CEO Andrew Dudum settled: Hims now resells Novo's branded drugs.

Hims earns a monthly fee from each subscriber, fills most prescriptions in its own pharmacies, and spends on ads that pay back within a year. Branded weight-loss drugs add revenue but little margin.^{1,2,3,5,7,8,9,10,14}

1 · DemandBrand adsAds bring in cash-pay patients for private or chronic conditions. Hims says new customers repay their acquisition cost in about six or seven months.
2 · Recurring revenueSubscriptionsPatients are billed automatically every month or quarter. That recurring billing is also what the FTC's lawsuit targets.
3 · Cost edgeOwn pharmaciesOwning the pharmacy lets Hims tailor doses and combine drugs. More than 1.6 million subscribers used a personalized plan at the end of 2025.
4 · Margin dragBranded GLP-1sNovo's drugs are resold at the same cash prices rivals charge. They lift revenue per subscriber, but the CFO expects lower margins to persist.
5 · Cross-sellMore conditionsEach new treatment, such as testosterone, menopause care or lab tests, is sold to existing subscribers without paying again to acquire them.
6 · ExpansionOverseas dealsAcquisitions add countries. Management expects at least $600M of international revenue in 2026, at or near breakeven.

Advantages

Cheap customers, own pharmacies, many conditions

Major advantage

Hims wins on how cheaply it signs up cash-pay patients, then sells them more treatments through pharmacies it owns. Rivals have some of these pieces; none has its scale. The edge holds in hair, sexual health and skin. In weight loss it has shrunk, because Novo and Lilly sell the same drugs to everyone at one price.

1.Ads that pay back. Hims says new customers repay their acquisition cost in about six or seven months, a pattern for four years. Marketing fell from 46% to 39% of revenue in 2025.
2.Owned the pharmacy early. Hims bought its first compounding pharmacy in 2021 and now fills most prescriptions itself. Ro, a private rival, leaves GLP-1 fulfillment to outside pharmacies such as CenterWell, per Sacra.
3.Scale rivals lack. Hims has about 2.9 million subscribers. LifeMD, which also runs its own pharmacy, has about 356,000, and WW has 197,000 clinical members.
4.Weak spot: weight loss. Hims sells Wegovy at the same cash prices as other telehealth firms, and Lilly's own pharmacy fills Zepbound. Here Hims competes on service, not on cost.^{2,3,4,6,16,24,25,26}

Several businesses above $100M a year

Strong advantage

Weight loss, men's skin, sexual health and women's skin each passed $100 million in yearly revenue in 2025, and most 2025 revenue came from treatments other than GLP-1s. That spread helps explain why the February crackdown dented the business rather than breaking it.^3,1

A foreign footprint bought with debt and stock

Supporting

Real but costly. The Eucalyptus deal cost $968.5M for accounting purposes, and Hims can pay much of the remainder in shares. Management targets near-breakeven international profit in 2026, so this adds sales before it adds earnings.^2,12,14

What's changing

Proving branded weight loss can make money

Since March, Hims has resold Novo's Wegovy and Ozempic, and since April its doctors can prescribe Lilly's Zepbound and Foundayo through LillyDirect. Eucalyptus closed in June. The FTC sued in July, and Hims recorded a roughly $60M legal reserve. In October the FDA sent a policy that could ease peptide compounding to the White House.^2,5,12,16,27

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with Hims & Hers Health
Hims & Hers Healththis stock	$6.00B	Hims & Hers runs online clinics where patients pay cash for prescriptions by subscription. Its 2.9 million subscribers are about eight times LifeMD's, and its own pharmacies fill most prescriptions.
Roprivate	—	Private online clinic for weight loss, sexual health and hair, using outside pharmacies for GLP-1s.	Ro leaves GLP-1 fulfillment to outside pharmacies; Hims fills most prescriptions in its own.^26,3
LifeMDLFMD	—	Smaller online clinic with its own pharmacy, now prescribing almost only branded GLP-1s.	LifeMD has about 356,000 subscribers; Hims has about 2.9 million.²⁴
WW InternationalWW	—	Weight Watchers' diet coaching plus a clinic that prescribes branded GLP-1s.	WW sells coaching first and drugs second; Hims sells prescriptions across many conditions.²⁵
Eli Lilly (LillyDirect)LLY	$1.20T	Sells Zepbound and Foundayo straight to cash-pay patients through its own pharmacy.	LillyDirect fills Hims's Zepbound orders, so Hims earns only its membership fee.¹⁶
Novo NordiskNVO	$174.47B	Makes Wegovy and Ozempic and sells them through many telehealth partners.	Novo sells Wegovy through Hims and its rivals at the same cash prices.⁶

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Will Hims's adjusted EBITDA margin (operating profit before depreciation, stock pay and one-time costs, per dollar of sales) recover to about 10% in 2027, from 8% last quarter?^{1,2,3,11,13,14,15,16,27,28}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If branded weight loss keeps adding subscribers and overseas sales reach breakeven, margins recover in 2027 and a stock at under two times sales rerates.

U.S. growth is back. U.S. revenue rose 16% last quarter after falling 8% in the first, led by branded weight loss under the Hers brand.
Most U.S. revenue still comes from other treatments. Hair loss, sexual health and skin do not depend on Novo, and management says they gain from scale.
Customers are getting cheaper to win. Marketing fell to about 34% of revenue last quarter, from about 39% a year earlier.
Peptides could be a new line. FDA advisers favored easing rules on six of seven peptides in July, and Hims is preparing to make peptide ingredients itself.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If branded drugs keep diluting margins and regulators or share issuance take their toll, earnings stay thin and the stock can fall back toward February's lows.

Branded drugs earn far less. Gross margin fell to 64% from 76% a year earlier, and the CFO expects it to stay below historical levels.
Regulators are circling. The FTC sued in July over billing, cancellation and data sharing, and HHS referred Hims to the Justice Department in February.
Shares may be issued. Hims can pay most of the $684M in deferred Eucalyptus payments in stock, though in February it said it planned to use cash.
Lilly's drugs skip its pharmacy. LillyDirect fills Zepbound and Foundayo orders from Hims's doctors, so Hims collects its membership fee, not the drug revenue.

Where Delphi landsholdWe think today's price already weighs both sides fairly.See why

Why it fell 37%

The stock fell on margins and regulators, not on lost customers.

Hims closed at $46.63 a year ago and $29.32 on October 28. The worst stretch was February: the FDA moved against mass-marketed GLP-1 copies, Novo sued, and the stock closed as low as $14.52. The Novo deal on March 9 lifted it 41% in a day, and it reached $38.28 in July.

Then the costs of the new model showed up. The FTC suit on July 29 cut 15% in a day, and second-quarter results showed gross margin down 12 points and a loss under standard accounting. Through all of it subscribers kept rising, to a record 2.89 million.^{1,7,8,23,28,31}

Date	Event	Close
Feb 27, 2026	Low after FDA crackdown and Novo suit	$14.52
Mar 9, 2026	Novo deal, lawsuit dropped	$22.16, up 41%
May 12, 2026	First-quarter loss	$25.03, down 14%
Jul 29, 2026	FTC lawsuit filed	$25.00, down 15%
Aug 11, 2026	Second-quarter margins	$30.51, down 4%

Where we landDemand is not the problem. The stock now hinges on whether branded weight loss and overseas sales earn decent margins, and on how many shares Hims issues to pay for Eucalyptus.

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Adjusted EBITDA margin■ unclear

8% in Q2 2026 ($60.3M), up from 7% in Q1 but down from 15% a year earlier^1,28

Shows whether branded weight loss and overseas sales can earn money. Third-quarter guidance is 9% to 11%.

Subscribers and monthly revenue per subscriber▲ improving

2.89M subscribers, up 19%; $92 a month, up 21% (about $90 excluding Eucalyptus)^1,2

Growth must come from more paying patients, not one-off price or mix effects.

International revenue▲ improving

$131.4M in Q2 2026, 17% of revenue, about $40M of it from one month of Eucalyptus^1,14

Management's 2026 target is at least $600M at about breakeven profit.

Next earnings report

Nov 9

In 4 days

Expected earnings per share: $0.06
Expected revenue: —

What to listen for: Whether adjusted EBITDA margin reaches the 10% guidance midpoint and free cash flow turns positive, the first test that branded weight loss can earn money.^1,14,18,19

What would prove this wrong

✕Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin lands below the 9% bottom of guidance.
✕Quarterly subscriber additions fall below 100,000 as weight-loss demand cools.
✕Hims pays Eucalyptus installments mainly in new shares.
✕The FTC case forces billing changes or costs well above the $60M reserve.

Our ratingHoldas of Nov 2 close, $25.24 · what ratings mean

At 1.7 times sales, near its usual valuation, the stock already prices in some margin recovery, and possible share issuance and the FTC case limit the upside.

12-month target: $28.92 (+14.6%)
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: -3.9 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $25.24

Target $28.92

bull case25% likely

$36.98 +47%

Branded weight loss and peptides keep adding subscribers, margins pass 10% in 2027, and Eucalyptus is paid in cash.

$19.62 sales per share × 1.9 = $36.98

base case45% likely

$28.94 +15%

2027 revenue lands near the $4.0B Wall Street average with margins near 10%, and Eucalyptus is paid mostly in cash.

$18.29 sales per share × 1.6 = $28.94

bear case30% likely

$22.16 -12%

Margins stay near 8%, subscriber growth stalls, the FTC case costs more than reserved, and Hims pays Eucalyptus in shares.

$17.49 sales per share × 1.3 = $22.16

Why these odds: Hims beat its own revenue guidance last quarter and raised the 2026 forecast twice. But analysts cut 2027 earnings estimates from $0.62 to $0.42 a share over 90 days, and the FTC suit tilts the risk down.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects sales per share of $18.29 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $16.70 to $20.95). Today the stock trades at 1.5 times next year's sales per share; its five-year middle is 1.86.^{2,11,19,20,21,22,23}

What tests the call: Q3 2026 earnings: margin versus guidance and first 2027 comments (Nov 9)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 29; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $25.24, Hims & Hers Health is cheaper than usual against its own sales

Hims & Hers Health trades at 1.5 times the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's sales. That is below its five-year middle of 1.9.

Analysts expect sales to grow about 8% the year after.

Hims & Hers Health multiple: 1.5×
Its usual multiple: 1.9×
Base case: +15%
Bear case: −12%

The skewOur bear case loses about 83¢ for every $1 our base case makes. That ratio, how much you stand to lose against how much you stand to make, is the skew.

Last earnings

Q2 2026 results, reported Aug 10

Revenue beat and the 2026 forecast rose to $3.1B to $3.3B, but Hims swung to an $86M loss as branded weight-loss drugs cut gross margin to 64%.^{1,2,13,14,15,23,28}

Reported Aug 10	Expected	Actual	Difference
Earnings per share	-$0.05	-$0.37	-640.0%
Revenue	—	—	—

Beat expectations in 2 of the last 6 quarters

Stock reaction: Down 4.0% the next day, closing at $30.51

Why the stock moved

Negative: gross margin fell for a fourth straight quarter, and the CFO expects it to stay below historical levels.
Negative: the top of the adjusted EBITDA forecast fell to $325M from $350M.
Negative: free cash flow (cash left after capital spending) was -$68M as branded weight-loss inventory tied up cash.
Positive: about 300,000 net new subscribers, including Eucalyptus's, and U.S. revenue growth sped up to 16%.

What it means for the stock: Confirmed the trade: branded weight loss brings customers back but at lower margins. The thesis now rests on margins recovering in the second half.