Hotels/Resorts/Cruise lines · #66 in the Retail 100

Carnival Corporation

CCL

Our rating: hold
12-month target: $34.15 +17.0%
Expected vs. S&P 500: 0 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Dec 18In 43 daysEarnings calls page ↗

Carnival buys all its fuel at market prices, so a 10% fuel price rise cuts its yearly earnings per share nearly 8%, far more than at hedged rivals.

Summary

Carnival is the world's largest cruise company, still paying off debt it took on to survive the pandemic. When war with Iran sent oil above $100 in March, Carnival cut its 2026 forecast 11%; it now expects $2.24 a share, level with 2025's $2.25. Net yields, its revenue per berth per day, are rising about 2.3% this year, led by onboard spending. The stock depends on those prices rising faster than fuel.

$29.20

+$0.34 (+1.18%)Past year

What Carnival Corporation does

Carnival is the world's largest cruise company, with over a third of global cruise ship capacity. Guests pay for the trip in advance, then spend about half as much again on board.²⁶

What it sells

Cruise tickets65% of revenue, FY2025
Fares on Carnival Cruise Line, Princess, AIDA, Costa and four other brands. Guests pay a deposit, then the rest before sailing.
Onboard spending35% of revenue, FY2025
Drinks, casinos, shore excursions, spas, specialty restaurants and Wi-Fi, often sold as packages before the trip.

Who buys it

Vacationers, booked through travel agents and the brands' own websites. North Americans were 8.1 million of the 13.6 million guests in 2025. North American brands bring in 66% of revenue and European brands like AIDA and P&O Cruises 32%.

Where you've seen it

Princess, Holland America, Cunard and P&O Cruises all belong to Carnival, not just the ships named Carnival.

The backstory

The pandemic halted Carnival's cruises in March 2020. Under then-CEO Arnold Donald it lost nearly $20B in 2020 and 2021 and borrowed to survive; debt peaked near $36B in early 2023. Josh Weinstein, CEO since August 2022, has used record demand to pay it down. Then the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, from February 28, shut most Gulf shipping and sent Brent to $118 by March's end. Carnival cut its 2026 forecast from $2.48 to $2.21 a share.

How the business makes money

Why fuel decides how much Carnival hands back^{1,2,3,4,8,9,10,11,12,13,24,25,26,33}

Step 1
Guests book early and pay up front. Customer deposits hit a record $7.6B last quarter, and ships sailed more than full.
Step 2
On board, guests spend about half as much again on drinks, casinos and excursions. Onboard sales rose 6.7% last quarter.
Step 3
Fuel is the cost that swings most. It is only about 9% of costs, but Carnival burns 2.7 million tons a year unhedged: a 10% fuel price rise cuts yearly profit about $240M, or $0.17 a share. A $10 move in oil, about 9% today, is worth roughly $0.15.
Step 4
Spare cash pays down pandemic debt, cut from about $36B in early 2023 to $23.9B. Yearly interest fell from $2.1B in 2023 to $1.3B in 2025, a saving worth about $0.50 a share.
What shareholders get
Then cash goes back to shareholders: $1.2B of buybacks this year, and a goal of about $14B through 2029, over a third of Carnival's $37B market value. It hasn't said how that splits between dividends and buybacks.

Advantages

Brands in every region and price tier

Strong advantage

Hard to copy, because it took decades of acquisitions. Its brands, from Carnival Cruise Line to Cunard, let it move ships to where demand is. Carnival doesn't quantify any cost savings from its size.^2,3,4

Ships that burn less fuel

Strong advantage

Carnival's substitute for hedging, which its CEO says isn't worth paying banks for. Fuel use per berth per day is 26% below 2019; at 2019's rate, fuel would cost nearly $750M more this year.^1,3,37

Its own private island port

Supporting

Helpful, but still new. Celebration Key, its private Bahamas port, welcomed 2.5 million guests in its first year, giving guests a reason to book. Carnival hasn't disclosed its profit.^2,3

What's changing

From repaying debt to paying shareholders

S&P rated its debt investment grade, which lowers borrowing costs, and no secured debt is left. It reinstated a $0.15 quarterly dividend, and in May merged its U.S. and U.K. companies into one NYSE-listed share. Its 2029 targets: earnings per share over 50% above 2025, and a return on invested capital, profit per dollar tied up in the business, above 16%, against over 13% in 2025.^2,4,8,10,39

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with Carnival Corporation
Carnival Corporationthis stock	$39.28B	Carnival is the world's largest cruise company, with over a third of global cruise ship capacity. Guests pay for the trip in advance, then spend about half as much again on board.
Royal Caribbean GroupRCL	$75.08B	Newer, bigger ships and private islands at premium prices; it hedges about half its fuel.	Similar debt, twice the market value; investors pay 15 times expected earnings, against Carnival's 12.^{15,35,34,33,40}
Norwegian Cruise Line HoldingsNCLH	$7.00B	Third-largest cruise operator, with Norwegian plus upscale Oceania and Regent brands.	Norwegian expects net yields to fall about 5% this year; Carnival's should rise 2.3%.^28,1
Viking HoldingsVIK	$37.83B	Adult-only river and ocean cruises for older, wealthier travelers.	Viking grows fast in a premium niche; Carnival sells cheaper mass-market cruises.¹⁷

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

CCL +232.6%S&P 500 +94.2%Total return with dividends since Aug 2022

2023202420252026

Josh WeinsteinCEO4.2 yrs

David BernsteinCFO and Chief Accounting Officer19 yrs, since 2007

Micky ArisonExecutive Chair; family owns about 7%36 yrs, since 1990

When Weinstein was named (Apr 2022), the stock moved -7.3% that day; the S&P 500 moved -2.9%.

Wall Street on Weinstein: PositiveMost analysts rate it a Buy. Susquehanna raised its price target to $29, calling the shift toward Europe sound; Wells Fargo cut its to $34 on fuel. Under Weinstein, debt fell by a third and the dividend returned.^{L7,L8,L12,L10,L11}

Leadership sources (12) · researched Oct 2026

L1Carnival Corporation & plc Announces Executive Changes Effective Aug. 1 · Carnival Corporation / PR Newswire, 2022-04-26
L2Josh Weinstein, Chief Executive Officer · Carnival Corporation, 2026-10-11
L3David Bernstein, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer · Carnival Corporation, 2026-10-11
L4Carnival's Dickinson to Retire · Marine Link, 2007-07-10
L5Earnings call transcript: Carnival beats Q3 2026 estimates and lifts outlook · Investing.com, 2026-09-29
L6Micky Arison, Chair of the Board · Carnival Corporation, 2026-10-11
L7Susquehanna raises Carnival stock price target on strong bookings · Investing.com, 2026-09-30
L8Wells Fargo cuts Carnival stock price target on fuel outlook · Investing.com, 2026-10-01
L9Carnival Corporation Ltd. 2026 proxy statement (DEF 14A) · SEC EDGAR, 2026-02-27
L10Carnival Corp Ltd. Form 8-K, third quarter 2026 earnings release · SEC EDGAR, 2026-09-29
L11Carnival Corporation & plc Form 10-Q, quarter ended February 28, 2023 · SEC EDGAR, 2023-03-29
L12Carnival (CCL) Stock Forecast & Price Target · TipRanks, 2026-10-23

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Can Carnival lift earnings per share about 15% in 2027, from about $2.24 this year to the $2.57 analysts expect, while buying fuel at market prices with Brent above $110?^{1,2,3,4,6,7,15,18,19,21,26,27,30,36}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If record 2027 bookings hold their prices and onboard spending keeps outgrowing ticket sales, earnings grow about 15% and Carnival keeps repaying debt and buying back shares.

Customers are booking early and paying up front. Customer deposits, cash paid for future cruises and partly refundable, hit a third-quarter record of $7.6B that helps fund operations.
Guests are spending more once on board. Onboard revenue rose 6.7% last quarter, nearly four times ticket growth, and keeps about 69% after its direct costs.
Few new ships means more spare cash. Capacity grows just 0.5% in 2027, and the next new ship class arrives in 2029.
Shareholders are already getting cash back. Carnival has bought back $1.2B of stock this year.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If oil stays above $110, fuel absorbs the gains from higher prices, 2027 earnings stall near 2026 levels, and analysts keep cutting estimates.

Fuel costs are climbing fast. Carnival paid 36% more per ton of fuel last quarter than a year earlier.
Oil got more expensive after the report. Brent settled near $114 on October 27, up from about $100 on October 5, Reuters reported.
The Middle East conflict weighs on Europe. Management says it hurt Mediterranean bookings and expects the disruption to last into early 2027.
Analysts are trimming numbers. Brokers cut price targets both before and after the September 29 report, and the 2027 estimate slipped from $2.63 to $2.57.

Where Delphi landsholdWe think today's price already weighs both sides fairly.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Fuel price per metric ton▼ worsening

$826 last quarter, up from $607 a year ago; $896 expected this quarter^1,2,4

Carnival does not hedge, so every rise in oil hits profit directly.

North America operating income▼ worsening

$1.48B last quarter, down from $1.52B a year ago⁴

Two-thirds of revenue. Ticket prices slipped and fuel cost $107M more, so higher revenue earned less.

Europe operating income■ unclear

$788M last quarter, down from $810M a year ago^4,26

About 32% of revenue. Ticket prices rose; higher fuel, emissions and other costs caused the drop.

Next earnings report

Dec 18

In 43 days

Earnings calls page ↗

Expected earnings per share: $0.22
Expected revenue: $6.47B

What to listen for: Carnival's first 2027 earnings forecast and the fuel price it assumes, against the $896 a ton it expects this quarter.^1,18,20

What would prove this wrong

✕Brent stays above $110 and 2027 fuel costs erase price gains.
✕Consumers cut travel; in 2009, Carnival's prices fell 10% and earnings per share 23%.
✕European itineraries keep losing guests because of the Middle East conflict.
✕Carnival orders many new ships, slowing debt repayment and buybacks.

Our ratingHoldas of Nov 3 close, $29.20 · what ratings mean

At about 11 times expected earnings, against a three-year norm of 13, the stock is cheap, but unhedged fuel with Brent above $110 limits its edge.

12-month target: $34.15 (+17.0%)
Plus dividend: +1.5%
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: 0 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $29.20

Target $34.15

bull case20% likely

$42.37 +45%

Record 2027 bookings hold their prices and oil falls back toward $100, so fiscal 2028 earnings beat forecasts as buybacks shrink the share count.

$3.14 earnings per share × 13.5 = $42.37

base case45% likely

$35.57 +22%

Prices rise a few percent a year and fuel stays expensive but stable, so earnings match what analysts expect for 2027 and 2028.

$2.96 earnings per share × 12 = $35.57

bear case35% likely

$27.63 -5%

Oil stays above $110 with no hedges and fuel absorbs price gains, leaving fiscal 2028 earnings about 5% below what analysts expect.

$2.81 earnings per share × 9.8 = $27.63

Why these odds: Carnival has beaten estimates eight straight quarters, but analysts cut its 2027 estimate from $2.63 to $2.57 in 90 days, with 17 cutting and 8 raising last month, and Brent rose from about $100 to $114 in October.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects earnings per share of $2.96 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $2.65 to $3.32). Today the stock trades at 11.6 times next year's earnings per share; its five-year middle is 13.3.^{1,14,18,19,20,21,22,23,27,30,31,32,36}

What tests the call: Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings and the first 2027 forecast, including its fuel price assumption (Dec 18)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 27; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $29.20, investors pay less for each dollar of Carnival Corporation's earnings than for the average stock's

Carnival Corporation trades at 12 times the earnings analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's earnings. That is cheaper than it has been 80% of the time over the past five years, when the middle was 13.

Analysts expect earnings to grow about 17% the year after, against about 16% for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 trades at 19 times. At the market's multiple, today's price would only make sense if Carnival Corporation earned about 38% less than forecast over the next year.

Carnival Corporation multiple: 12×
S&P 500 multiple: 19×
Base case: +22%
Bear case: −5%

The skewOur bear case loses about 25¢ for every $1 our base case makes. That ratio, how much you stand to lose against how much you stand to make, is the skew.

Last earnings

No reported quarters available.