Aerospace & Defense · #58 in the Retail 100

Rocket Lab Corporation

RKLB

The war-driven defense buildup↑Space stocks follow SpaceX↑

Our rating: hold
12-month target: $58.61 +12.6%
Expected vs. S&P 500: -5.9 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Nov 9In 4 daysEarnings calls page ↗

Rocket Lab now makes most of its money building satellites, and buying Iridium would use most of its cash.

Summary

Rocket Lab is known for launching small rockets, but most of its money now comes from building satellites and their parts, a business it has grown partly by buying suppliers. It still loses money, and its larger Neutron rocket has not flown yet. It has also agreed to buy Iridium, which runs its own satellite network. At a price far above its usual valuation, the stock depends on Neutron flying soon and the Iridium deal paying off.

$54.47

-$6.87 (-11.20%)Past year

What Rocket Lab Corporation does

Rocket Lab is known for its small Electron rocket, but satellites and satellite parts, often for the U.S. government, now bring in most of its revenue. Its larger Neutron rocket has not flown yet.^2,20

What it sells

Satellites and parts81% of revenue, Q2 2026
Whole satellites, such as missile-tracking satellites for the Pentagon's Space Development Agency, plus parts like solar panels sold to other satellite builders.
Launches19% of revenue, Q2 2026
Launches of small satellites on the Electron rocket. Neutron, a larger rocket aimed at satellite networks, has not flown yet.

Who buys it

U.S. government agencies such as the Department of War, NASA and the National Reconnaissance Office, plus satellite companies like Planet and BlackSky. One government customer was 42% of revenue in the first half of 2026.

Where you've seen it

Satellite images in news stories often come from companies like BlackSky and Planet, which are Rocket Lab customers.

The backstory

Rocket Lab built its name on Electron, a small rocket that carries one satellite at a time, but most launch demand now comes from satellite networks that need bigger rockets, where SpaceX dominates. CEO Peter Beck's answer is Neutron, first targeted for 2024, which has slipped three times, most recently after a tank ruptured in a January 2026 test. Meanwhile satellite building has grown into most of the business.

How the business makes money

Why Rocket Lab earns from satellites while betting on Neutron^{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,20,21}

Step 1
Governments and companies hire Rocket Lab to build whole satellites, like missile-tracking ones for the Pentagon. Satellites are 81% of sales.
Step 2
Owning its parts suppliers lets it keep profit it used to pay outside makers. Signed work waiting to be done hit a record $2.36B in June.
Step 3
Its small Electron rocket flies often. The larger Neutron, not yet flown, is meant to win launches of satellite batches Electron can't lift.
Step 4
Neutron spending eats the gains, so Rocket Lab still loses money. It used $187.5M of cash in the first half.
What shareholders get
The planned Iridium deal adds up to 42M new shares. Priced at about $39 per $1 of expected sales, the stock is betting Neutron flies soon.

Advantages

Builds whole satellites in-house

Major advantage

Rocket Lab's biggest advantage. Owning parts makers like Mynaric and Motiv lets it sell whole spacecraft, not just launches. It won a $397M Space Force satellite contract.^1,2

A rocket that already flies often

Strong advantage

Strong, but only for small payloads. Electron flew 21 times in 2025, a launch record newer rivals lack.^2,20

Cash for Neutron and Iridium

Supporting

Helpful, but mostly spoken for. Rocket Lab had $2.39B of cash and securities in June. The company says Iridium needs over $3B of cash.^1,2,8

What's changing

Buying Iridium to become a space operator

In June Rocket Lab agreed to buy Iridium for $54 a share, half in cash and half in stock. Rocket Lab's own shares rose about 16% that day. It raised $1.94B by selling new shares to pay the cash portion, and Iridium holders approved the deal on September 24. Closing, expected in mid-2027, still needs antitrust and FCC approvals.^{2,7,8,9,10,11,22,24}

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with Rocket Lab
Rocket Labthis stock	$32.60B	Rocket Lab is known for its small Electron rocket, but satellites and satellite parts, often for the U.S. government, now bring in most of its revenue. Its larger Neutron rocket has not flown yet.
SpaceXSPCX	$1.97T	Flies reusable Falcon 9 rockets constantly and runs its own Starlink satellite network.	SpaceX sells cheap shared rides; Rocket Lab sells dedicated launches and builds satellites.
Firefly AerospaceFLY	$3.06B	Builds small Alpha rockets and moon landers, mainly for NASA and defense customers.	Firefly is a younger, smaller copy, about half Rocket Lab's size.¹³
Blue Origin (private)private	—	Jeff Bezos's private rocket company, flying the big reusable New Glenn rocket.	Both chase big launches; Blue Origin has the bigger rocket, Rocket Lab the longer record.

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

RKLB +249.2%S&P 500 +61.8%Price change since Nov 2021, the earliest data available · log scale

20222023202420252026

Peter BeckFounder, Founder, President, CEO and Chairman13 yrs, since 2013

Adam SpiceCFO8.5 yrs, since 2018

Frank KleinCOO2 yrs

Wall Street on Beck: PositiveCiti started covering it at Buy, citing regular Electron launches and Rocket Lab making most of its own parts. TD Cowen rates it a Buy, saying the Neutron rocket is roughly on schedule, though it expects first flight in 2027.^L5,L6,L7

Leadership sources (7) · researched Oct 2026

L1Rocket Lab USA, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year 2024 · Rocket Lab / SEC, 2025-02-27
L2Rocket Lab · Wikipedia, 2026-10-08
L3Rocket names Agostino Ricupati as Chief Accounting Officer; Adam C. Spice relieved as principal accounting officer · TradingView, 2026-06-05
L4Rocket Lab Hires COO Frank Klein from Automotive Industry · Via Satellite, 2024-09-12
L5RKLB Stock A 'Core Holding For Space Bulls,' Analyst Says · Stocktwits, 2026-10-01
L6Rocket Lab Shares Plunge as Neutron Rocket Debut Risks Slipping Into 2027 · BigGo Finance, 2026-08-11
L7Rocket Lab (RKLB) Stock Forecast and Price Target · MarketBeat, 2026-10-08

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Will Neutron reach orbit by mid-2027, keeping Rocket Lab on track for the $1.77B of 2028 sales analysts expect, up 30% from 2027?^{1,2,3,4,7,8,9,14,16,17,18,20,24,25}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If Neutron flies in the next few quarters and wins large satellite-network launches, booming satellite sales and Iridium's service income carry Rocket Lab toward profit.

Customers keep signing up. Backlog more than doubled in a year, to a record $2.36B in June.
Rocket Lab is growing even before Neutron flies. Sales rose 62% last quarter, mostly from building satellites.
Key Neutron parts have passed testing. The fairing, second stage and thrust structure have all completed qualification.
Iridium would bring steady income. It earned about $495M of operating profit before depreciation in 2025.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If Neutron slips deep into 2027 or fails, losses continue, the Iridium purchase stretches the balance sheet, and a stock priced near 39 times sales falls.

Neutron keeps slipping. In August CEO Peter Beck said the window for a launch this year is narrowing.
Cash burn is rising. Rocket Lab used $187.5M in the first half and expects a wider operating loss this quarter as Neutron spending grows.
Iridium also means more shares and more debt risk. Rocket Lab issues up to 42M new shares at closing. It also guarantees Iridium's $1.78B loan.
The stock is priced for a lot. It trades at about 39 times expected sales, more than three times its usual level since 2021.

Where Delphi landsholdWe think today's price already weighs both sides fairly.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Neutron first launch▼ worsening

Pad delivery targeted for Q4 2026; first targeted for 2024^3,4,2

Decides whether Rocket Lab can win the large launches that later sales forecasts depend on.

Space Systems sales▲ improving

$189.5M last quarter, up 94% from $97.9M a year ago²

Satellites and parts, 81% of sales, must keep funding growth while Neutron is delayed.

Launch Services sales▲ improving

$44.6M last quarter, down 4% on revenue timing; launches rose to 6 from 5²

Sales from Electron, its small rocket, show whether demand for small launches holds before Neutron arrives.

Next earnings report

Nov 9

In 4 days

Earnings calls page ↗

Expected earnings per share: -$0.06
Expected revenue: —

What to listen for: Whether Neutron has reached the launch pad, whether management still targets a first flight this year, and how much cash the quarter used.^14,19

What would prove this wrong

✕Neutron's first flight slips past mid-2027 or fails to reach orbit.
✕Space Systems sales stop growing as large government satellite contracts wind down.
✕Regulators block or delay the Iridium purchase well past mid-2027.
✕Rocket Lab sells many more shares to cover losses.

Our ratingHoldas of Nov 2 close, $52.07 · what ratings mean

Satellite sales are growing fast, but at about 39 times expected sales and with Neutron's debut slipping, expected gains trail the S&P 500 slightly.

12-month target: $58.61 (+12.6%)
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: -5.9 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $52.07

Target $58.61

bull case25% likely

$79.15 +52%

Neutron reaches orbit by early 2027 and wins network launch contracts while satellite sales keep climbing, so 2028 sales beat forecasts.

$2.65 sales per share × 29.9 = $79.15

base case45% likely

$55.02 +6%

Neutron flies in the first half of 2027 and satellite sales keep growing, so 2028 sales match forecasts while losses narrow.

$2.49 sales per share × 22.1 = $55.02

bear case30% likely

$46.89 -10%

Neutron slips into late 2027 or fails and launch sales stall, so 2028 sales fall short of forecasts as losses and cash burn continue.

$2.36 sales per share × 19.9 = $46.89

Why these odds: Over 90 days analysts widened 2027 loss forecasts to $0.09 a share from $0.04, with six cuts and two raises last month, even though third-quarter sales guidance beat forecasts.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects sales per share of $2.49 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $2.23 to $2.81). Today the stock trades at 27.7 times next year's sales per share; its five-year middle is 11.16. Because sales per share is forecast to grow fast, valuations are cut 6%, since fast growth rarely keeps its price.^{1,2,8,9,14,15,16,17,18,19,24,25,22}

What tests the call: Q3 2026 results and Neutron launch timing (Nov 9)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 6; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $52.07, Rocket Lab Corporation costs more than usual against its own sales

Rocket Lab Corporation trades at 28 times the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's sales. That is above its five-year middle of 11.

Analysts expect sales to grow about 32% the year after.

Rocket Lab Corporation multiple: 28×
Its usual multiple: 11×
Base case: +6%
Bear case: −10%

The skewOur bear case loses about $1.76 for every $1 our base case makes. That ratio, how much you stand to lose against how much you stand to make, is the skew.

Last earnings

Q2 2026 results, reported Aug 10

Record sales and a record $2.36B backlog, but a wider loss than expected and a narrowing window for Neutron's 2026 debut.^{1,2,3,4,19,23,24}

Reported Aug 10	Expected	Actual	Difference
Earnings per share	-$0.08	-$0.08	0.0%
Revenue	—	—	—

Beat expectations in 2 of the last 6 quarters

Stock reaction: Fell as much as 6% the next morning, then closed at $80.01, nearly unchanged from $80.04

Why the stock moved

Down early: Beck said the window for a Neutron launch by year-end is narrowing.
Down early: the loss of $0.08 a share was wider than the $0.06 expected.
Down early: third-quarter guidance calls for a $17M to $23M operating loss before depreciation and noncash costs.
Recovered: sales beat forecasts, and third-quarter sales guidance of $250M to $265M topped the roughly $236M analysts expected.

What it means for the stock: Weakened the timing of the story: satellite sales are strong, but Neutron's first flight looks likely to slip, and cash burn is rising to pay for it.