Pharmaceuticals: Major · #40 in the Retail 100

Pfizer

PFE

Our rating: sellhigh conviction
12-month target: $26.62 -11.3%
Expected vs. S&P 500: -24.2 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Feb 2In 89 daysEarnings calls page ↗

Pfizer beat and raised again, but analysts still expect 2028 earnings near $2.48 a share, 17% below this year's guidance midpoint, as patents expire.

Summary

Pfizer, one of the largest U.S. drugmakers, is shrinking as COVID sales fade and patents on its best sellers expire. On November 3 it beat estimates and raised 2026 guidance again, and newer drugs are growing fast, but Ibrance and Xtandi lose U.S. protection in 2027 and Eliquis in 2028. At about 10 times expected earnings the stock looks cheap, yet shrinking profits limit the upside until 2027 guidance arrives in mid-December.

$30.00

+$5.31 (+21.51%)Past year

What Pfizer does

Pfizer earns 65% of its revenue from 12 drugs and vaccines that each sell over $1 billion a year. Patents on several expire by 2028, so it must invent or buy replacements.¹³

What it sells

Primary care medicines43% of revenue, FY2025
Eliquis, a blood thinner and Pfizer's top seller at 13% of revenue, plus Prevnar pneumonia vaccines and its COVID vaccine and pill.
Specialty drugs28% of revenue, FY2025
Led by Vyndaqel for a rare form of heart failure, plus hospital antibiotics and arthritis drugs such as Xeljanz.
Cancer drugs27% of revenue, FY2025
Ibrance for breast cancer and Xtandi for prostate cancer, both losing U.S. patents in 2027, plus Padcev and others from Seagen.

Who buys it

Doctors prescribe, but three U.S. wholesalers, McKesson, Cencora and Cardinal Health, bought 54% of Pfizer's 2025 revenue and resell to pharmacies and hospitals. The U.S. was 59% of revenue, so U.S. insurers and government drug-price rules weigh heavily.

Where you've seen it

The Pfizer COVID vaccine, made with BioNTech, and Prevnar pneumonia shots given at doctors' offices and pharmacies.

The backstory

Under CEO Albert Bourla, in charge since 2019, Pfizer's COVID vaccine and pill lifted revenue to a record $100.3 billion in 2022. Demand then collapsed, and in October 2023 Pfizer cut its revenue forecast by $9 billion. Bourla has spent heavily on deals, buying Seagen in 2023 and obesity drug developer Metsera in 2025. Facing patent losses on Ibrance, Xtandi and Eliquis, his answer is new launches and cost cuts.

How the business makes money

Why Pfizer must replace drugs before their patents expire^{1,5,6,7,8,10,13,14,15,24,25,30,31}

Step 1
Patent-protected drugs sell at high prices until cheaper generic copies arrive. Twelve drugs and vaccines bring in 65% of Pfizer's revenue.
Step 2
The clock is running. Ibrance and Xtandi lose U.S. patents in 2027, and generic Eliquis can launch in April 2028.
Step 3
Pfizer buys replacements, like the cancer drugs from its $43 billion Seagen deal. New and acquired drugs grew 32% last quarter.
Step 4
Cost cuts protect profit as sales fall, with $2.5 billion of further net savings planned from 2027 through 2029.
What shareholders get
The remaining drugs fund a $1.72 yearly dividend per share, about 5.6% of the share price. Pfizer is buying back no stock this year.

Advantages

Longer protection for Vyndamax

Strong advantage

Strong: it shields a big drug family through the worst years. Three generic makers agreed not to launch Vyndamax in the U.S. before June 2031, pending other lawsuits. The family sold $6.4 billion in 2025.^10,20

Cancer drugs from Seagen

Strong advantage

Strong, and already selling. The $43 billion Seagen deal added four approved cancer drugs. It also doubled Pfizer's cancer pipeline to 60 programs.^7,1

Sales force and scale

Supporting

Helpful but unproven in obesity. Bourla says Pfizer's reach will help a new obesity drug hit peak sales faster than a typical launch. Pfizer plans 10 late-stage obesity trials in 2026.^14,23

What's changing

Guidance rose again; 2027 guidance is the next test

On November 3 Pfizer raised 2026 revenue guidance for a second straight quarter, by $1.5 billion at the midpoint, and lifted adjusted earnings guidance to $2.95 to $3.05 from $2.80 to $3.00. Management gives formal 2027 guidance around mid-December, when Ibrance and Xtandi patent losses become measurable.^30,31

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with Pfizer
Pfizerthis stock	$170.88B	Pfizer earns 65% of its revenue from 12 drugs and vaccines that each sell over $1 billion a year. Patents on several expire by 2028, so it must invent or buy replacements.
Eli LillyLLY	$1.20T	Sells the leading obesity and diabetes drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, and is growing fast.	Lilly already sells obesity drugs; Pfizer's first is aimed for 2028.⁹
Bristol Myers SquibbBMY	$125.85B	Sells cancer, heart and immune drugs, and splits Eliquis profits with Pfizer.	Both lose Eliquis in 2028; Pfizer has more new launches to fill the hole.¹⁷
MerckMRK	$346.86B	Earns most of its profit from cancer drug Keytruda, plus vaccines and animal health.	Merck leans on one drug; Pfizer's coming losses are spread across several.
AbbVieABBV	$506.92B	Lost Humira to generics in 2023 and replaced it with Skyrizi and Rinvoq.	AbbVie already crossed its patent cliff; Pfizer is still in front of its own.

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

PFE +6.5%S&P 500 +237.9%Total return with dividends since Jan 2019

2020202120222023202420252026

Albert BourlaChairman and CEO7.8 yrs, since 2019

Cecile GueganCFO0 mo

Chris BoshoffChief Scientific Officer and President,…1.8 yrs

When Bourla was named (Oct 2018), the stock moved +0.5% that day; the S&P 500 moved +0.3%.

Wall Street on Bourla: MixedScotiabank raised its price target to $33 and rates Pfizer a Buy. Cantor Fitzgerald, like several others, raised its price target but rates it a Hold, saying a prostate cancer trial matters most in the near term.^L8

Leadership sources (9) · researched Nov 2026

L1Pfizer Announces CEO Succession · Pfizer, 2018-10-01
L2Pfizer to replace longtime CEO Read with veteran Bourla · CNBC, 2018-10-01
L3Ian Read to Retire as Executive Chairman of Pfizer's Board of Directors; Chief Executive Officer Dr. Albert Bourla Named Chairman · Pfizer, 2019-09-27
L4Pfizer Announces Chief Financial Officer Transition · Pfizer / Business Wire, 2026-06-18
L5Pfizer hunts for new CFO as Denton prepares to hang up gloves, wave goodbye to pharma · Fierce Pharma, 2026-06-18
L6Pfizer Announces New Chief Scientific Officer and President, Research & Development · Pfizer, 2024-11-20
L7Pfizer Inc. 2026 Proxy Statement · Pfizer / SEC, 2026-03-12
L8Four Analysts Raised Their Pfizer Targets in One Week Without an Upgrade · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-10
L9Pfizer Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K exhibit) · Pfizer / SEC EDGAR, 2026-11-03

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Can new drugs and cost cuts keep adjusted earnings at $2.50 a share or more in 2028, when generic Eliquis arrives in the U.S., versus the $3.00 midpoint of Pfizer's 2026 guidance?^{1,3,8,9,10,11,13,14,15,16,28,30,31,32,33}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If launches and cost savings cover most of the lost patent revenue, 2028 is a shallow dip, and investors collect a 5.6% dividend while waiting for obesity drugs.

New drugs are growing fast. Launched and acquired products grew 32% last quarter, to $3.8 billion.
Cost cuts cushion the fall. Pfizer says nearly all of $7.2 billion in net savings arrives by end-2026, with $2.5 billion more planned through 2029.
Analysts are growing more positive on 2027. Over three months their forecast rose from $2.86 to $2.91 a share.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If patent losses arrive faster than new drugs ramp up, 2028 earnings fall well below $2.50 and the dividend uses most of Pfizer's profit.

The patent losses grow every year. Pfizer's finance chief expects them to cut revenue by over $6 billion in 2028 alone.
Its biggest drug goes generic soon. Generic Eliquis can launch in the U.S. in April 2028. Eliquis sold $2.5 billion last quarter.
Pfizer is late to obesity. Its first potential approval, a monthly shot from the Metsera deal, is expected in 2028, years after Lilly and Novo.
A White House deal caps some prices. Under it, Pfizer sells to Medicaid at the lowest price paid in other rich countries.

Where Delphi landssellWe think the bear case is more likely than today's price assumes.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Launched and acquired product sales▲ improving

$3.8 billion last quarter, up 32% excluding currency³⁰

Shows whether new drugs can replace those losing patents.

2028 earnings per share estimate■ unclear

About $2.48 per Yahoo Finance, versus the $3.00 midpoint of 2026 guidance^32,30

Shows how deeply analysts think patent losses will cut.

COVID product sales▼ worsening

Last quarter Comirnaty sold $808 million (down 30%) and Paxlovid $449 million (down 63%); about $4 billion expected in 2026^30,32

The last of the pandemic revenue, so each cut lowers the base.

Next earnings report

Feb 2

In 89 days

Earnings calls page ↗

Expected earnings per share: $0.72
Expected revenue: $16.89B

What to listen for: Pfizer's 2027 guidance, due around mid-December, and whether launched products keep growing near 30% as Ibrance and Xtandi patents expire.^31,32

What would prove this wrong

✕Launched and acquired product growth slows below 10%.
✕Pfizer guides 2027 earnings well below $2.80 per share.
✕Phase 3 obesity data show weight loss clearly below rivals.
✕Pfizer cuts or freezes the dividend to fund research or deals.

Our ratingSellHigh convictionas of Nov 3 close, $30.00 · what ratings mean

Analysts expect earnings to fall about 13% by 2028 as Eliquis, Ibrance and Xtandi lose patents, so even with a 5.6% dividend the stock likely trails the S&P 500.

12-month target: $26.62 (-11.3%)
Plus dividend: +5.6%
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: -24.2 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $30.00

Target $26.62

bull case30% likely

$31.62 +5%

Launches, Vyndamax's longer protection and cost savings offset most 2028 patent losses and obesity trials go well, lifting 2028 earnings toward $2.70.

$2.68 earnings per share × 11.8 = $31.62

base case50% likely

$26.04 -13%

Patent losses cut 2028 earnings to the analyst average, as new drugs grow but do not fully replace Eliquis, Ibrance and Xtandi.

$2.55 earnings per share × 10.2 = $26.04

bear case20% likely

$20.58 -31%

Generic Eliquis erodes sales faster, pricing deals deepen discounts and obesity trials disappoint, pushing 2028 earnings toward $2.35.

$2.37 earnings per share × 8.7 = $20.58

Why these odds: Pfizer beat estimates again and raised guidance, and 2027 estimates edged up from $2.86 to $2.91 over 90 days. But the 2028 consensus is about $2.48 and 2027 guidance is unknown. No share dilution assumed.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects earnings per share of $2.55 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $2.18 to $2.82). Today the stock trades at 10.2 times next year's earnings per share; its five-year middle is 10.13.^{1,15,16,18,19,20,26,30,32,33,34}

What tests the call: Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 guidance (Feb 1)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Nov 4; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $30.00, investors pay less for each dollar of Pfizer's earnings than for the average stock's

Pfizer trades at 10 times the earnings analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's earnings. That is above its five-year middle of 10.

Analysts expect earnings to fall about 13% the year after, against about 16% for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 trades at 19 times. At the market's multiple, today's price would only make sense if Pfizer earned about 45% less than forecast over the next year.

Pfizer multiple: 10×
S&P 500 multiple: 19×
Base case: −13%
Bear case: −31%

Last earnings

Q3 2026 results, reported Nov 3

Pfizer beat on earnings and revenue and raised 2026 revenue guidance by $1.5 billion and earnings guidance by $0.10 at the midpoint, even after absorbing a $0.10 licensing charge.^30,31,32

Reported Nov 3	Expected	Actual	Difference
Earnings per share	$0.73	$0.87	+18.4%
Revenue	$15.85B	$16.58B	+4.6%

Stock reaction: About -2.2% on the day ($30.67 to $30.00)

Why the stock moved

Up: adjusted earnings beat the 73-cent estimate by 19%, and revenue beat by about $690 million.
Up: launched and acquired products grew 32%, and Eliquis rose 25%, mostly on volume per the finance chief.
Held back: adjusted earnings were flat from a year earlier, COVID sales kept falling, and Xtandi sales dropped 6%.
Down: shares slipped after a 21% three-month run; one outlet cites patent worries, and 2027 guidance is due mid-December.

What it means for the stock: Strengthened the near term again: new drugs grew faster and guidance rose. The 2027 to 2028 patent losses are unchanged and get sized in mid-December.