Motor Vehicles · #37 in the Retail 100

Rivian Automotive

RIVN

Our rating: buymedium conviction
12-month target: $18.17 +36.7%
Expected vs. S&P 500: +18.2 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Feb 11In 98 daysEarnings calls page ↗

Rivian's vehicles lost $80 million last quarter before overhead, and a $1 billion loan from Volkswagen in October is what extended its cash.

Summary

Rivian makes electric pickups, SUVs and delivery vans and has never earned an annual profit. Its cheaper R2 SUV, on sale since June, became its best seller in the third quarter, and revenue rose 38% from a year earlier. Cash is the problem: Rivian burned $1.1 billion last quarter, and its share count is up 18% since December. The stock depends on the R2 making vehicle sales profitable before Rivian needs more money.

$13.29

+$0.21 (+1.61%)Past year

What Rivian Automotive does

Rivian is an American maker of electric trucks, SUVs and delivery vans. Its vehicles still cost more to build than they sell for, and software work paid for by Volkswagen keeps its gross profit positive.^11,10

What it sells

Electric vehicles63% of revenue, Q2 2026
The R1 pickup and SUV, the cheaper R2 SUV that began deliveries in June, and delivery vans. Built at a loss last quarter.
Software and services31% of revenue, Q2 2026
Mostly engineering work for its joint venture with Volkswagen, plus repairs, used cars and charging. This is the part that makes money.
Regulatory credits7% of revenue, Q2 2026
Credits sold to other carmakers that need them to meet U.S. and Canadian emissions and fuel rules. The amount swings from quarter to quarter.

Who buys it

Mostly individuals buying directly from Rivian rather than through dealers. Amazon is the largest single customer, buying $554M in Q2 2026, a third of revenue, mostly delivery vans. Volkswagen supplies a large share of software and services revenue.

Where you've seen it

Many of Amazon's electric delivery vans on U.S. streets are built by Rivian.

The backstory

For years Rivian's premium R1 truck and SUV cost more to build than they sold for, and it lost $1.2 billion at the gross level in 2024. Deliveries then fell in 2025, partly because federal EV tax credits expired on September 30. Founder RJ Scaringe, CEO throughout, is betting on the cheaper R2, with Volkswagen and Uber paying in billions to help fund it.

How the business makes money

Why Rivian needs far more cars from one factory^{1,2,4,8,9,10,11,14,24,25,26,28}

Step 1
The cheaper R2 SUV, on sale since June, became Rivian's best seller in the third quarter and brings in new buyers.
Step 2
Each vehicle cost about $84,700 to build, down from $96,700 in the second quarter, but automotive sales still lost $80 million at the gross level.
Step 3
Volkswagen pays Rivian for its software and electrical design, $354 million last quarter, which keeps total sales above the cost of making what Rivian sells.
Step 4
Even so, Rivian burned $1.12 billion of free cash flow in the third quarter.
What shareholders get
Nothing reaches shareholders yet. Shares outstanding are up from 1,240 million to 1,460 million this year, and a $1 billion Volkswagen loan arrived in October.

Advantages

Software Volkswagen pays for

Major advantage

Rivian's biggest advantage. Volkswagen committed up to $5.8 billion to license Rivian's software and electrical design through a joint venture. It paid $1 billion of that in April after winter testing.^2,11

Partners funding growth

Strong advantage

Strong, but tied to milestones. Uber targets $250 million by year-end and up to $700 million more through 2031, and Volkswagen lent $1 billion in October.^11,13,26

Buyer interest in the R2

Supporting

Encouraging, and now visible in sales. The R2 outsold both the R1 and the delivery van in the third quarter, and reservations kept converting to orders above expectations.^26,28

What's changing

The R2 ramp: best seller now, profit not yet

The R2 became Rivian's top seller in its first full quarter, and a second shift started in Illinois. Vehicle sales still lost $80 million at the gross level, and Rivian raised the low end of its 2026 delivery forecast to 67,000.^25,26,28,27

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with Rivian Automotive
Rivian Automotivethis stock	$19.38B	Rivian is an American maker of electric trucks, SUVs and delivery vans. Its vehicles still cost more to build than they sell for, and software work paid for by Volkswagen keeps its gross profit positive.
TeslaTSLA	$1.55T	The largest U.S. EV maker, selling mostly Model 3 and Model Y at huge scale.	Tesla is far bigger and profitable; Rivian has the newer midsize SUV, the R2.¹⁵
LucidLCID	$1.34B	Luxury electric sedans and SUVs, losing money and relying on outside funding.	Both need a cheaper model; Rivian's is already selling, putting it further ahead.
General MotorsGM	$64.38B	The largest U.S. automaker, funding Chevrolet and Cadillac EVs with gas truck profits.	GM can cover EV losses with gas truck profits; Rivian has no such cushion.
FordF	$46.18B	Century-old automaker selling the F-150, funding EVs from gas and hybrid trucks.	Ford sells far more trucks, mostly gas; Rivian's are electric-only and run on its software.

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

RIVN -86.8%S&P 500 +74%Total return with dividends since listing in Nov 2021 · log scale

20222023202420252026

RJ ScaringeFounder, Founder, Chairman and CEO17 yrs, since 2009

Claire McDonoughCFO5.8 yrs, since 2021

Wassym BensaidChief Software Officer and Co-CEO, Rivi…1.9 yrs

Wall Street on Scaringe: MixedPiper Sandler upgraded the stock to Buy, citing a smooth start to R2 production and a stronger balance sheet. Citi started covering it at Hold, saying the outlook depends on building the R2 in large numbers at two plants.^L5,L6,L7

Leadership sources (7) · researched Oct 2026

L1Rivian · Wikipedia, 2026-10-08
L2Rivian's CFO is leaving the company · TechCrunch, 2026-08-27
L3Rivian Announces CFO Transition Plan · Rivian / Nasdaq, 2026-08-27
L4The Rivian-Volkswagen joint venture deal is now up to $5.8B · TechCrunch, 2024-11-12
L5Piper Sandler upgrades Rivian citing stronger EV demand and R2 launch · ROIC.ai, 2026-07-27
L6Citi startet Rivian-Bewertung mit Neutral: R2-Hochlauf entscheidet über Kursziel von 18 Dollar · Goldesel, 2026-09-14
L7Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Stock Forecast and Price Target · MarketBeat, 2026-10-08

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Will the R2 lift Rivian's sales to about $11.8 billion in 2027, as analysts expect, while yearly cash burn falls from about $4.4 billion in 2026 to $3.2 billion?^{1,2,4,6,7,8,11,12,14,20,22,25,26,27,28,29,32}

Bull case: why buyers buy

As R2 output climbs, each vehicle carries less factory cost and vehicle sales turn profitable, while Volkswagen and Uber payments cover most remaining losses.

R2 demand is showing up in deliveries. Rivian delivered 19,248 vehicles, 58% more than in the second quarter, and raised the low end of its 2026 forecast.
Each vehicle is getting cheaper to build. Cost per vehicle fell by more than $12,000 from the prior quarter as R2 volume rose.
Software already makes good money. Software and services earned a 42% gross margin, and 59% of its revenue came from the Volkswagen joint venture.
Outside money keeps arriving. Volkswagen lent $1 billion in October, and Uber targets a $250 million investment by the end of 2026.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If vehicle losses persist or the R2 stalls, burn stays near $3 billion a year and Rivian keeps selling shares or borrowing, as in July and October.

Vehicles still lose money. Automotive gross profit was negative $80 million, worse than the negative $36 million in the second quarter, with about $120 million of R2 ramp costs.
Cash burn jumped. Free cash flow was negative $1.12 billion, partly from working capital, against negative $421 million a year earlier.
Shareholders keep getting diluted. Shares outstanding rose to 1,460 million from 1,240 million at the end of 2025.
The finance chief is leaving mid-ramp. CFO Claire McDonough steps down October 30, and some analysts called the timing unfortunate.

Where Delphi landsbuyWe think the bull case is more likely than today's price assumes.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Quarterly deliveries▲ improving

19,248 last quarter, up 46% from a year ago, against about 18,900 expected^27,28

Shows whether R2 output is climbing fast enough to reach the 67,000 to 70,000 forecast for 2026.

Automotive gross profit■ unclear

A $80 million loss in the third quarter, from a $130 million loss a year earlier and $36 million in the second^25,26

Shows whether Rivian makes money building vehicles, before overhead and research costs.

Free cash flow▼ worsening

Negative $1.12 billion in the third quarter; negative $3.05 billion for nine months^25,26

Shows how fast Rivian uses up cash and how soon it may need to sell shares.

Next earnings report

Feb 11

In 98 days

Earnings calls page ↗

Expected earnings per share: -$0.54
Expected revenue: $2.53B

What to listen for: Whether automotive gross profit improves as R2 ramp costs fade, fourth-quarter deliveries of at least 25,193, and who replaces the CFO.^25,26,28,29

What would prove this wrong

✕Fourth-quarter deliveries fall below 25,193, missing the low end of the 2026 forecast.
✕Automotive gross profit is still negative in the first half of 2027.
✕Rivian sells another large block of shares before 2028.
✕Volkswagen or Uber milestone payments slip or are cancelled.

Our ratingBuyMedium convictionas of Nov 3 close, $13.29 · what ratings mean

The stock trades at about 1.6 times next year's sales against its own median of 2.7, and available liquidity covers the next year of cash burn.

12-month target: $18.17 (+36.7%)
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: +18.2 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $13.29

Target $18.17

bull case30% likely

$21.64 +63%

R2 output rises on two shifts and cheaper versions arrive on time in 2027, so vehicle sales turn profitable and sales beat the $11.8 billion forecast without new share sales.

$10.34 sales per share × 2.1 = $21.64

base case45% likely

$18.66 +40%

The R2 ramps roughly as planned and 2027 sales land near $11.8 billion, with shrinking losses funded by existing cash and Volkswagen and Uber payments.

$10.07 sales per share × 1.9 = $18.66

bear case25% likely

$13.13 -1%

Supplier limits or weak demand slow the R2 and cheaper versions slip, so losses stay near $3 billion a year and Rivian sells many more shares at low prices.

$9.33 sales per share × 1.4 = $13.13

Why these odds: Rivian beat revenue forecasts for an eighth straight quarter and raised its delivery forecast, but burn rose and vehicle sales still lose money. $7.1B of liquidity covers the next year's roughly $3.7B burn, so we add no shares.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects sales per share of $10.07 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $8.59 to $10.60). Today the stock trades at 1.8 times next year's sales per share; its five-year middle is 2.68. Because sales per share is forecast to grow fast, valuations are cut 9%, since fast growth rarely keeps its price.^{25,26,28,29,31,32,33,34,35}

What tests the call: Q4 2026 earnings, with automotive gross profit and cash burn (~2027-02)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 29; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $13.29, Rivian Automotive is cheaper than usual against its own sales

Rivian Automotive trades at 1.8 times the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's sales. That is cheaper than it has been 80% of the time over the past five years, when the middle was 2.7.

Analysts expect sales to grow about 37% the year after.

Rivian Automotive multiple: 1.8×
Its usual multiple: 2.7×
Base case: +40%
Bear case: −1%

The skewOur bear case loses about 3¢ for every $1 our base case makes. That ratio, how much you stand to lose against how much you stand to make, is the skew.

Last earnings

Q3 2026 results, reported Oct 29

Revenue and the adjusted loss beat forecasts, the R2 became Rivian's best seller, and Rivian raised its delivery forecast, but vehicle sales still lost money and cash burn rose.^{25,26,27,28,29,30,35}

Reported Oct 29	Expected	Actual	Difference
Earnings per share	-$0.64	-$0.48	+25.4%
Revenue	$2.00B	$2.15B	+7.7%

Stock reaction: Not in our price history yet: the report came after the Oct 29 close ($11.45, down 1.9% that day). After hours the stock traded at $12.07, up 5.4%; the next-day move is unconfirmed

Why the stock moved

Up: revenue of $2.155B beat the $2.0B expected, and the adjusted loss of $0.48 a share beat $0.61 to $0.64.
Up: the low end of the delivery forecast rose to 67,000, and the adjusted EBITDA loss forecast improved by $100M.
Caution: part of that came from credits and a one-time tariff refund, and the $300M capex cut is timing.
Down: automotive gross profit was a loss of $80M, and free cash flow was negative $1.12B, partly from working capital.
Offset: Volkswagen's $1B loan in October lifted available liquidity to $7.1B.

What it means for the stock: Strengthened the R2 demand case, but left the main question open: vehicle sales still lose money, burn rose, and Rivian leans on partner money while its CFO leaves.