DelphiAdvisorSoon
Market themes↑ heating up

The Fed turns to hikes

With inflation stuck above 3%, the Fed under Kevin Warsh switched from cutting interest rates to raising them.

Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive across the economy. Companies that still lose money and may need to raise cash, like Lucid and Rivian, are hurt most, along with lenders like SoFi and property owners like Realty Income, whose dividends compete with bond interest. Investors also pay less today for profits expected far in the future. So each jobs or inflation report that makes another hike more likely pulls these stocks down, and a weak report lifts them.

Where it stands September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier on Oct. 14, above the 3.6% expected, and the news raised bets on another Fed hike.

Who wins, who loses

Tends to rise

None identified yet.

    Tends to fall
    • Lucid GroupLCID
      -54.9% in 3 months

      Burned $2.9 billion in the first half and may need more money, which costs more as rates rise; fell 9.8% as hike odds jumped.

      Read the breakdown →
    • Rivian AutomotiveRIVN
      -14.6% in 3 months

      Still losing money while it builds the R2; fell 6.5% the week the Fed raised rates.

      Read the breakdown →
    • SoFi TechnologiesSOFI
      -8.1% in 3 months

      A lender whose funding costs rise with rates; rose 12.7% when hike fears faded in August and fell 4.9% when they returned.

      Read the breakdown →
    • Realty IncomeO
      -8.5% in 3 months

      Owns property bought partly with debt and pays a dividend that competes with bond interest; fell 4.8% the week of the hike.

    When it moved markets

    1. Week of Oct 12A hotter-than-expected inflation report on Wednesday raised hike fears; the Nasdaq fell 1.9% and Robinhood fell 7.3% for the week.
    2. Week of Oct 5Stocks rose Monday as investors bet the weak September jobs report makes another Fed hike less likely.
    3. Week of Sep 28Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, cutting the odds of an October hike and lifting tech stocks on Friday.
    4. Week of Sep 14The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike in three years. Realty Income fell 4.8%.
    5. Week of Sep 7Consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier in August, and traders put the odds of a September hike at 86%.
    6. Week of Aug 31Employers added 162,000 jobs in August against 53,000 expected, lifting the odds of a September hike to 58%.
    7. Week of Aug 24Warsh said inflation is not yet clearly improving, and traders raised the odds of a September hike to 57.5% from 35.4%.
    8. Week of Aug 10July consumer prices rose 0.1%, as expected, lowering hike odds; the S&P 500 set a record on Thursday.
    9. Week of Aug 3A report that the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July led traders to bet against a hike soon; the S&P 500 rose 3.5%.
    10. Week of Jun 29A weak June jobs report eased fears of a rate hike and helped the Dow to record closes.
    11. Week of Jun 15At Warsh's first meeting as chair, the Fed held rates but nine officials expected a hike this year; the Dow fell 500 points.

    Sources

    1. 1Fed holds rates steady, pares down statement to remove cutting bias · CNBC, 2026-06-17
    2. 2Dow closes 500 points lower as Warsh's first Fed meeting sets off surge in bond yields: Live updates · CNBC, 2026-06-17
    3. 3Dow jumps nearly 600 points to record close; Nasdaq slides as chip stocks suffer: Live updates · CNBC, 2026-07-02
    4. 4Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq jump to cap winning week as Fed rate hike fears fade · Yahoo Finance, 2026-08-07
    5. 5The Employment Situation: July 2026 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-08-07
    6. 6Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, as expected, putting the annual rate at 3.4% · CNBC, 2026-08-12
    7. 7S&P 500 closes at a new record, buoyed by cooler-than-expected inflation data and falling oil prices · CNBC, 2026-08-13
    8. 8S&P 500 falls Friday after Fed's Warsh highlights inflation worries, but index posts positive week · CNBC, 2026-08-28
    9. 9Dow tumbles more than 260 points after strong jobs report reignites rate hike fears · CNBC, 2026-09-04
    10. 10Dow rises 500 points to snap 4-day slide as oil cools, traders look past inflation report · CNBC, 2026-09-11
    11. 11Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement · Federal Reserve, 2026-09-16
    12. 12Stock Market Today (Sept. 18, 2026): S&P 500 edges lower after Fed rate hike lifts stocks · Yahoo Finance, 2026-09-18
    13. 13Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rally as Fed rate-hike expectations fade, tech gains · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-02
    14. 14Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Monday, October 5, 2026: Bitcoin back above $86,000 after higher rate expectations fade · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-05
    15. 15Market Close: October 14, 2026 · Investrade, 2026-10-14