Finance/Rental/Leasing · #39 in the Retail 100

SoFi Technologies

SOFI

Our rating: buyhigh conviction
12-month target: $23.23 +38.5%
Expected vs. S&P 500: +20 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Jan 29In 85 daysEarnings calls page ↗

SoFi's $0.90 profit target for 2027 assumes two interest rate hikes, and its 2.26% loan loss rate is about 3.4% before late-paying loan sales.

Summary

SoFi is an online bank that makes most of its money lending, mainly personal loans funded by customer deposits. Revenue rose 44% last quarter, and SoFi raised its 2026 forecast and set a 2027 profit target above what analysts expected. The stock jumped 13% but is still about 40% below a year ago, partly because a short seller questions its loan accounting. The stock now depends on SoFi hitting that target without loan losses rising.

$16.77

-$11.91 (-41.53%)Past year

What SoFi Technologies does

SoFi is an online bank that makes most of its money lending, chiefly personal loans. Customer deposits fund those loans, so the gap between the interest it earns and the interest it pays drives profit.^1,2,30,31

What it sells

Lending57% of segment revenue, Q3 2026
Personal, student and home loans. Personal loans were $12.6 billion of the $16.9 billion made last quarter, some for outside investors.
Banking and investing37% of segment revenue, Q3 2026
Checking, savings, a debit card and brokerage accounts. They bring in fees and the deposits that fund SoFi's loans.
Technology platform6% of segment revenue, Q3 2026
Galileo runs card accounts and payments for other financial companies. Revenue fell 24% from a year earlier after a large client left.

Who buys it

Mostly U.S. consumers who borrow, save and invest in one app: 17.1 million members holding 26.7 million products in September 2026. About half of new products go to existing members. Outside investors buy some of SoFi's loans, and Galileo sells to other financial companies.

Where you've seen it

SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, where 2026 World Cup matches were played, carries the bank's name.

The backstory

SoFi began in 2011 refinancing student loans and became a national bank in February 2022, so customer deposits could fund its loans cheaply. That made lending very profitable, but lending now earns 57% of segment revenue, and investors value loan income below steady fees. CEO Anthony Noto's answer is more fee income: making personal loans for outside investors, plus subscriptions, investing and crypto.

How the business makes money

Why SoFi's deposits make its personal loans so profitable^{1,3,5,10,11,12,31}

Step 1
High-interest savings accounts draw money into SoFi's app: $5.8B of new deposits last quarter.
Step 2
With its own bank charter, SoFi lends those deposits out, mostly as personal loans. New loans hit a record $16.9B last quarter.
Step 3
It keeps the gap between interest earned and interest paid. Some loans are made for outside investors, earning a fee without the risk.
Step 4
Borrowers also buy investing, credit cards and SoFi Plus. Members hold a record 1.56 products each.
What shareholders get
New shares lifted the diluted share count 5% in a year, so each share owns a slightly smaller slice. The stock is betting fast growth now turns into faster earnings per share.

Advantages

Its own bank charter

Major advantage

SoFi's biggest advantage. Its own deposits, now $51.3B, fund loans cheaply, while lenders without a bank charter, such as Upstart, must find outside funding for every loan.^1,10,16,31

One app, many products

Strong advantage

Strong, and growing. Members hold a record 1.56 products each. About half of new products go to existing members, so marketing money goes further.³¹

Outside buyers for its loans

Supporting

Helpful, not decisive, and recovering. Deals such as Blue Owl's for up to $5B of personal loans let SoFi earn fees without tying up its own capital.^11,31

What's changing

A raised forecast, a 2027 profit target, and a short seller

On March 17, 2026, short seller Muddy Waters alleged at least $312M of unrecorded debt. SoFi called the report inaccurate, and CEO Anthony Noto bought shares that day. After holding its earnings forecast in April and July, SoFi beat estimates on October 27, raised its 2026 outlook and set a 2027 earnings target of $0.90 a share. The stock rose 13%, and the short seller's claims remain unresolved.^{6,28,31,32,34}

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with SoFi Technologies
SoFi Technologiesthis stock	$21.76B	SoFi is an online bank that makes most of its money lending, chiefly personal loans. Customer deposits fund those loans, so the gap between the interest it earns and the interest it pays drives profit.
RobinhoodHOOD	$83.49B	Commission-free app for trading stocks and crypto, now adding banking and prediction markets.	Robinhood earns mostly from trading; SoFi earns mostly from lending.¹⁷
ChimeCHYM	$10.58B	Mobile bank account for everyday paychecks, earning mostly from debit card fees.	Chime holds few loans, so less risk; SoFi lends heavily and earns more interest.¹⁵
UpstartUPST	$2.24B	Uses AI to approve personal loans that banks and investors then fund.	Upstart needs outside money for every loan; SoFi funds loans with its own deposits.¹⁶
LendingClubLC	—	Online personal lender with a bank charter, funding loans with deposits.	The same model as SoFi, but SoFi makes over three times the personal loans.^1,14

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

SOFI +60%S&P 500 +125.9%Total return with dividends since listing in Nov 2020

202120222023202420252026

Anthony NotoCEO8.6 yrs, since 2018

Chris LapointeCFO5.5 yrs

Eric SchuppenhauerEVP, Group Business Unit Leader for Bor…2.2 yrs

Wall Street on Noto: MixedCitizens says doubters underrate how well SoFi gains customers and how much it makes from each one. Morgan Stanley rates it a Sell, saying each dollar of growth now ties up more of SoFi's own money.^L4,L5,L6

Leadership sources (6) · researched Oct 2026

L1SoFi Names Anthony Noto Chief Executive Officer · SoFi, 2018-01-23
L2SoFi Technologies, Inc. Form DEF 14A (2026 proxy statement) · SoFi Technologies / SEC, 2026-04-30
L3Our Leadership · SoFi, 2026-10-08
L4Citizens reiterates Market Perform rating on SoFi stock, citing innovation · Investing.com, 2026-02-02
L5SOFI Stock Surges To Its Best Day Of 2026 After Record Q2 Revenue: Why Is Wall Street Slashing Price Targets? · Stocktwits, 2026-07-30
L6SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Million · SoFi / Business Wire, 2026-07-29

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Will SoFi earn the $0.90 a share it guides for 2027, up about 48% from 2026, while reported write-offs of unpaid personal loans stay below 3%?^{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,31,32,33,34}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If members keep growing 30% a year and loan losses stay low, earnings per share rise about 48% in 2027 and the stock still looks cheap.

Management raised its profit outlook. It guides to about $0.61 for 2026 and $0.90 for 2027, above the $0.82 analysts had expected for 2027.
SoFi usually delivers on estimates. It beat analysts' earnings forecasts in three of the last four quarters and narrowly missed in the other.
Reported loan losses keep improving. The personal loan charge-off rate fell to 2.26% from 2.60% a year earlier.
Growth does not need new shares. Management says no capital raise is assumed or needed for its 2027 plan.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If loan losses or the accounting claims prove real, or rates do not move as assumed, profit falls short of the 2027 target and SoFi may sell more shares.

A short seller questions the books. Muddy Waters alleges SoFi's true personal loan charge-off rate is near 6%, a claim SoFi calls factually inaccurate.
The 2027 target rests on assumptions. The CFO said it assumes two interest rate hikes and a 24% tax rate.
New shares have shrunk each holder's stake. SoFi's diluted share count rose 5% in a year, to about 1.36 billion.
Lending is growing faster than fees. Lending revenue rose 68% last quarter, against 25% for Financial Services, so the business tilts toward income investors value less.

Where Delphi landsbuyWe think the bull case is more likely than today's price assumes.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Personal loan net charge-off rate▲ improving

2.26% last quarter; about 3.4% before SoFi sells late-paying loans^31,8

Shows whether lending profits are real, which Muddy Waters disputes by putting the true rate near 6%.

Adjusted earnings per share▲ improving

$0.18 last quarter, up 64% from a year ago^31,3

Shows whether revenue growth reaches shareholders, with SoFi guiding to about $0.61 for 2026 and $0.90 for 2027.

Loan Platform Business revenue■ unclear

$153M last quarter on $3.8B of loans, up from $143M in Q2 but below $194M in Q4 2025^31,1,5

Fees from making loans for other investors, income the market values more than interest.

Next earnings report

Jan 29

In 85 days

Earnings calls page ↗

Expected earnings per share: $0.20
Expected revenue: $1.38B

What to listen for: Whether Q4 results back the 2026 forecast of about $0.61, and whether personal loan charge-offs stay near 2.3%, or 3.4% before late-loan sales.^35,39

What would prove this wrong

✕Personal loan charge-offs climb above 3.5% as the economy slows.
✕An auditor or regulator confirms parts of the Muddy Waters accounting claims.
✕SoFi sells new shares again at today's lower price.
✕Outside investors stop buying SoFi's personal loans at good prices.

Our ratingBuyHigh convictionas of Nov 3 close, $16.77 · what ratings mean

Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 28% next year, yet at 20 times expected earnings the stock trades below every valuation reading since early 2024.

12-month target: $23.23 (+38.5%)
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: +20 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $16.77

Target $23.23

bull case30% likely

$26.72 +59%

Charge-offs stay low and loan fees grow, so SoFi meets its $0.90 target for 2027 and beats analysts' forecasts.

$1.07 earnings per share × 25.1 = $26.72

base case50% likely

$23.72 +41%

Revenue keeps growing near management's 27% target for 2027, and earnings match analysts' forecasts.

$1.04 earnings per share × 22.8 = $23.72

bear case20% likely

$16.78 +0%

Loan losses rise or accounting doubts linger while SoFi keeps reinvesting, so earnings land below forecasts.

$1.00 earnings per share × 16.9 = $16.78

Why these odds: SoFi beat in three of the last four quarters, raised its outlook, and guided 2027 earnings to $0.90 against $0.88 consensus. But 2028 is a one-source estimate, history has only seven readings, and the short seller's claims are unresolved.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects earnings per share of $1.04 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $0.95 to $1.09). Today the stock trades at 20.7 times next year's earnings per share; its five-year middle is 35.8. Because earnings per share is forecast to grow fast, valuations are cut 4%, since fast growth rarely keeps its price.^{27,25,31,35,36,37,38,39}

What tests the call: Q4 2026 earnings: whether results back the 2026 forecast and the $0.90 target for 2027 (Jan 29)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 28; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $16.77, investors pay 11% more than they pay for the average stock's earnings

SoFi Technologies trades at 21 times the earnings analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's earnings. That is cheaper than it has been 80% of the time over the past five years, when the middle was 36.

Analysts expect earnings to grow about 28% the year after, against about 16% for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 trades at 19 times. The premium is a bet that SoFi Technologies's earnings keep growing faster than the market's for years, not just next year.

SoFi Technologies multiple: 21×
S&P 500 multiple: 19×
Base case: +41%
Bear case: +0%

Last earnings

Q3 2026 results, reported Oct 27

Record revenue and members, a higher 2026 outlook, and a first 2027 profit target of $0.90 a share, above analysts' $0.82.^31,32,33,34

Reported Oct 27	Expected	Actual	Difference
Earnings per share	$0.16	$0.18	+10.9%
Revenue	$1.25B	$1.37B	+9.3%

Stock reaction: Up 13.4% on October 27, to $16.40 from a $14.46 prior close

Why the stock moved

Up: SoFi guided 2027 earnings to $0.90 a share, above the $0.82 analysts expected, after two quarters of no increase.
Up: revenue beat expectations by about $110M, and the 2026 revenue forecast rose to $5.04 billion from about $4.8 billion.
Up: management said no capital raise is assumed or needed for 2027, easing worries about more new shares.
Offset: the 2026 earnings forecast rose only about a cent, to $0.61.

What it means for the stock: Strengthened. The 2027 target and raised outlook point to growth turning into earnings, but the loan loss debate and the short seller's claims remain open.