Integrated Oil · #68 in the Retail 100

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation

XOM

Our rating: sellhigh conviction
12-month target: $157.04 -11.5%
Expected vs. S&P 500: -27.7 ptsSee the math
Next earnings: Jan 29In 85 daysEarnings calls page ↗

Refining, not drilling, drove Exxon's profit jump: refining earnings more than doubled to $9.1 billion while oil and gas production earnings fell 20%.

Summary

ExxonMobil is the largest U.S. oil company. In 2025 about two-thirds of its profit came from pumping oil and gas, and the rest from refining, lubricants and chemicals. Last quarter, war-related fuel shortages made refining its biggest profit source, and adjusted earnings reached $4.23 a share even with Middle East output still disrupted. The stock depends on whether those fuel margins and prices hold once Middle East supply returns.

$177.46

+$64.76 (+57.46%)Past year

What ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation does

ExxonMobil is the largest U.S. oil company. It pumps oil and gas and refines much of it into fuels and chemicals. Most revenue comes from selling fuel, but two-thirds of profit comes from production.³⁵

What it sells

Fuels75% of revenue, FY2025
Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from its refineries. Huge sales, but it kept only about 3 cents of profit per dollar in 2025.
Oil and gas production12% of revenue, FY2025
Wells in the Permian Basin, Guyana, Canada and elsewhere. Much of the oil feeds its own refineries, and this earns most of the profit.
Chemicals7% of revenue, FY2025
Plastics and other basic chemicals made from oil and gas, used in packaging, car parts and consumer goods.
Lubricants and specialties5% of revenue, FY2025
Mobil 1 motor oil, industrial lubricants and synthetic materials. They earned about 16 cents per dollar of sales, versus 3 for fuels.

Who buys it

Buyers range from drivers at Exxon, Esso and Mobil stations to airlines, manufacturers and other energy companies. The U.S. was 42% of 2025 sales and Canada 8%, with the rest spread around the world.

Where you've seen it

Exxon, Esso and Mobil gas stations, and Mobil 1 motor oil on auto parts store shelves.

The backstory

Exxon lost $22.4 billion in 2020, its first annual loss in at least four decades, mostly from asset write-downs. The next year activist Engine No. 1 won board seats. Both happened under CEO Darren Woods, in charge since 2017, who has since cut costs deeply, grown Guyana from first oil into a major field, and bought Pioneer for $59.5 billion.

How the business makes money

Why oil prices flow straight into Exxon's profit^{1,2,3,5,10,11,13,15,16,17,21,31,33,36,38}

Step 1
Exxon pumps oil and gas, much of it in the Permian and Guyana. Brent oil averaged about 40% more last quarter than a year earlier.
Step 2
Most costs are fixed, so higher prices flow largely to profit. Lasting savings reached $16.9 billion a year against 2019.
Step 3
Refineries turn crude into fuel and earn more when fuel is scarce. Chemicals and lubricants add other sources of profit.
What shareholders get
The windfall left $19.1 billion of spare cash last quarter, which paid dividends, bought back stock and helped cut debt.

Advantages

Scale in the Permian

Strong advantage

Strong at home. Buying Pioneer more than doubled Exxon's Permian output, and management says it hit its year-end Permian target ahead of schedule.^{1,12,15,31,38}

Running Guyana's oil block

Strong advantage

Strong, with growth still ahead. Exxon runs and owns 45% of Guyana's Stabroek block, which has just under 11 billion barrels of resources.^13,14

Refineries and chemical plants

Strong advantage

Strong, and a cushion pure producers like ConocoPhillips lack. When fuel is scarce, refineries add profit on top of higher crude prices.¹

What's changing

Cashing in on refining, with 2027 plans next

Exxon is spending its refining windfall on debt and buybacks. Net debt stood at $22.1 billion after nearly $11 billion of cuts this year, the dividend rose 4%, and buybacks stay at $20 billion for 2027. Guyana's Uaru ship starts up this quarter, and Exxon expects a final decision on Mozambique gas by year-end.^36,38,37

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with ExxonMobil
ExxonMobilthis stock	$729.70B	ExxonMobil is the largest U.S. oil company. It pumps oil and gas and refines much of it into fuels and chemicals. Most revenue comes from selling fuel, but two-thirds of profit comes from production.
ChevronCVX	$458.38B	Second-largest U.S. oil company, with oil fields, refineries and a stake in Guyana.	The closest match; Exxon owns more of Guyana, 45% to 30%, and more chemicals.¹⁴
ConocoPhillipsCOP	$181.89B	Pure oil and gas driller, with no refineries or chemical plants.	ConocoPhillips swings harder with oil prices; Exxon's refining and chemicals soften the blow.
ShellSHEL	$304.38B	London-listed oil major and one of the biggest traders of liquefied natural gas.	Shell bets on gas and trading; Exxon bets more on U.S. shale and Guyana oil.
TotalEnergiesTTE	$215.65B	Paris-listed oil major putting real money into power and renewables, alongside oil and gas.	TotalEnergies is building a power business; Exxon sticks to oil, gas and chemicals.

Leadership

Who runs the company, and how the stock has done under the CEO.

XOM +181%S&P 500 +61.8%Price change since Nov 2021, the earliest data available

20222023202420252026

Darren WoodsChairman and CEO9.8 yrs, since 2017

Neil HansenSVP and CFO9 mo

Wall Street on Woods: PositiveWells Fargo said Exxon has run reliably through 2026 despite damage in Qatar, but cut the stock to Hold because BP looks cheaper. The downgrade was about the share price, not how the company is run.^L5,L6

Leadership sources (6) · researched Oct 2026

L1Exxon Mobil names Woods chairman, CEO to replace Tillerson · Fox Business, 2016-12-14
L2Management committee · ExxonMobil, 2026-10-11
L3Earnings call transcript: ExxonMobil posts strong Q2 2026 results as shares slip · Investing.com, 2026-07-31
L4Exxon Mobil Corporation Form 8-K: election of Neil A. Hansen as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer · ExxonMobil Investor Relations, 2025-12-08
L5Wells Fargo bullish on BP, downgrades Exxon Mobil amid valuation gap · Investing.com, 2026-10-01
L6Exxon Mobil downgraded, BP upgraded: Wall Street's top analyst calls · The Fly / Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-01

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Will Exxon earn the $12.01 a share analysts expect in 2027 if Brent crude falls toward the $84 a barrel the U.S. government forecasts and fuel margins normalize?^{2,11,24,35,36,37,38,39,41,42}

Bull case: why buyers buy

If Middle East supply stays short into 2027 while Guyana and the Permian keep growing, Exxon earns what analysts expect and keeps buying back about $20 billion of stock yearly.

Lower oil prices should hurt less than in 2020. Lasting cost savings reached $16.9 billion a year against 2019, and Exxon targets $20 billion by 2030.
Guyana keeps adding barrels. Uaru, the fifth production ship, is due to start up this quarter.
The Permian has more room to grow. Exxon hit its year-end target ahead of schedule and plans automated drilling on about half its rigs by 2028.
Refining and specialty products add a cushion. Together they earned $10.3 billion last quarter, and Exxon expects fuel markets to take well into next year to normalize.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers, Brent falls back and fuel margins normalize, earnings drift toward 2025's $6.99 a share and today's price looks expensive.

Normal oil prices mean much lower earnings. Exxon's 2025 earnings, before one-time items, were 42% below what analysts expect for 2027.
The government expects supply to recover. The EIA sees Middle East oil flows rising, taking Brent from $105 in the fourth quarter to an $84 average in 2027.
The refining windfall depends on shortages. Woods said it will take "well through next year" for fuel markets to get closer to normal, and production earnings already fell 20%.
The stock is expensive against its history. It trades at about 18 times its six-year average earnings, above the 13.5 it has usually traded at.

Where Delphi landssellWe think the bear case is more likely than today's price assumes.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Brent crude price■ unclear

About $96 on average last quarter, with September at $114, per the EIA^11,41

Brent sets most of Exxon's profit, and the EIA's October outlook expects $84 for 2027.

Energy Products earnings▲ improving

$9.1 billion adjusted last quarter, up from $4.1 billion the quarter before³⁶

Exxon's refining business, now its largest profit source, which earns more when fuel is scarce.

2027 earnings forecast▲ improving

$12.01 a share, up from $10.59 ninety days ago³⁹

Shows whether analysts think high prices will last into next year.

Next earnings report

Jan 29

In 85 days

Earnings calls page ↗

Expected earnings per share: $4.08
Expected revenue: $115.22B

What to listen for: Whether refining margins hold as Middle East supply returns, how much of the 350,000 barrel a day impact comes back, and Exxon's reaffirmed 2027 plan metrics and buybacks.^36,38,39,41

What would prove this wrong

✕Brent averages below $70 for two straight quarters.
✕Exxon cuts its $20 billion yearly buyback pace while Brent stays above $70.
✕Guyana's Uaru or Whiptail startups slip by more than a year.
✕Permian output growth stalls well below the planned 9% a year.

Our ratingSellHigh convictionas of Nov 3 close, $177.46 · what ratings mean

Exxon trades at about 18 times its six-year average earnings, above its usual 13.5, even as analysts expect profits to fall once war-disrupted fuel and oil supply returns.

12-month target: $157.04 (-11.5%)
Plus dividend: +2.3%
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: -27.7 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $177.46

Target $157.04

bull case30% likely

$214.19 +21%

Middle East supply stays short into 2027, Brent holds above the EIA's $84 forecast and refining margins stay wide, keeping earnings near the top of analysts' range.

$10.59 mid-cycle earnings per share × 20.2 = $214.19

base case45% likely

$147.72 -17%

Shipping through Hormuz recovers through 2027 and Brent drifts toward the EIA's $84, so earnings ease from this year's level, as analysts expect.

$8.92 mid-cycle earnings per share × 16.6 = $147.72

bear case25% likely

$105.22 -41%

Brent falls back to 2025's $69 or lower, earnings slide toward 2025's $6.99 a share, and the stock loses its wartime valuation.

$7.32 mid-cycle earnings per share × 14.4 = $105.22

Why these odds: Analysts raised 2027 estimates from $10.59 to $12.01 over 90 days, Exxon beat consensus in Q3 after a small Q2 miss, and the EIA lifted its 2027 Brent forecast to $84. But refining margins are expected to normalize.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects mid-cycle earnings per share of $8.92 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $5.72 to $12.26). Today the stock trades at 17.6 times next year's mid-cycle earnings per share; its five-year middle is 13.48.^{2,21,22,24,39,40,41,42,43,36,38}

What tests the call: Q4 2026 earnings (date unconfirmed): refining margins, Middle East output and the reaffirmed 2027 plan (Jan 29)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Nov 3; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $177.46, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation is priced about like the average stock

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation trades at 18 times the mid-cycle earnings analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's mid-cycle earnings. That is pricier than it has been 80% of the time over the past five years, when the middle was 13.

Analysts expect mid-cycle earnings to fall about 12% the year after, against about 16% for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 trades at 19 times. The price assumes ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's mid-cycle earnings grow roughly in line with forecasts, with no premium for doing better.

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation multiple: 18×
S&P 500 multiple: 19×
Base case: −17%
Bear case: −41%

Last earnings

Q3 2026 results, reported Oct 30

Exxon earned $15.4 billion and beat estimates as war-driven fuel shortages more than doubled refining profit and offset lower production earnings.^{36,37,38,42,43,44}

Reported Oct 30	Expected	Actual	Difference
Earnings per share	$4.12	$4.23	+2.7%
Revenue	$104.89B	$113.16B	+7.9%

Stock reaction: +2.2% on the day ($187.25 from $183.29; results came before the market opened)

Why the stock moved

Up: adjusted earnings of $4.23 a share beat LSEG's $4.08, as refining earned $9.1 billion, up from $4.1 billion.
Down: production earnings fell 20% to $7.3 billion on lower oil prices and a Guyana contract effect.
Watch: Middle East disruption still cost about 350,000 barrels a day, with the same impact guided for the fourth quarter.

What it means for the stock: Strengthened the near term, but the beat came from refining margins management expects to ease well into next year. It did not show earnings holding once Middle East supply returns.

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation

What it sells

Who buys it

Where you've seen it

How the business makes money

Advantages

Scale in the Permian

Running Guyana's oil block

Refineries and chemical plants

What's changing

Cashing in on refining, with 2027 plans next

Competitors

Leadership

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

What to watch

What would prove this wrong

The math behind the recommendation

At $177.46, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation is priced about like the average stock

Last earnings

Why the stock moved

Limits of this analysis

Sources