The Iran war oil shock
The U.S.-Iran war and the closed Strait of Hormuz keep pushing oil prices, and energy and travel stocks, around.
Much of the Persian Gulf's oil ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which the war has largely shut. Each attack or stalled talk pushes oil up, which raises profits at Chevron and Exxon. It also raises costs for airlines and cruise lines, which buy fuel at market prices, and drains shoppers' budgets through gas prices. Each sign of a deal does the reverse. Higher oil also keeps inflation up, which pushes bond yields higher and makes Fed rate hikes more likely.
Where it stands Brent crude rose 1.8% to $106.65 a barrel on Oct. 12, up from $100.32 on Oct. 5, on Middle East supply worries.
Who wins, who loses
- ChevronCVX+20.9% in 3 months
Earns its biggest profits in years from war-driven oil prices; rose 7.2% when Hormuz talks stalled in August.
Read the breakdown → - +17.0% in 3 months
Rises with oil; gained 4.1% the week U.S. crude passed $100 a barrel in September.
Read the breakdown →
- -22.7% in 3 months
Does not hedge fuel, so the oil spike erased its 2026 profit; fell 7% when Hormuz talks stalled in August.
Read the breakdown → - -10.6% in 3 months
Pays market prices for jet fuel; rose 6.7% in September when hopes of U.S.-Iran talks pulled oil below $100.
Read the breakdown → - -1.6% in 3 months
Cruise ships burn large amounts of fuel, and its customers spend less when gas prices are high.
Read the breakdown → - WalmartWMT+11.1% in 3 months
Its finance chief said in August that high gas prices are stretching shoppers; the stock fell 10% that week.
Read the breakdown →
When it moved markets
- Week of Oct 12Brent rose 1.8% to $106.65 on Monday and energy led the market; Exxon rose 1.9%.
- Week of Sep 21Oil fell below $100 on hopes of U.S.-Iran talks; American Airlines rose 7% and Delta 6.7%.
- Week of Sep 7U.S. crude closed above $100 for the first time since May as the war entered its seventh month; Exxon rose 4.1%.
- Week of Aug 31U.S. strikes on Revolutionary Guard targets pushed U.S. oil up 5.2% to $90.22 in a day, and the Dow fell 419 points.
- Week of Aug 17Oil rose as U.S.-Iran tensions grew, and Walmart fell 10% after its finance chief said high gas prices were stretching shoppers.
- Week of Aug 10Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed until its conditions were met; oil rose over 5% and Chevron 7.2%.
- Week of Jul 6Trump declared the ceasefire over and Brent rose 5.4% in a day before easing; Chevron rose 4.3% for the week.
- Week of Jun 29A U.S.-Iran truce let ships pass through Hormuz, and stocks recovered the prior week's losses.
- Week of Jun 15The U.S. and Iran signed a framework to end the war; Brent fell to about $78 and Chevron fell 7.3%.
Sources
- 1Oil prices fall, stocks rally as US, Iran sign framework to end war · Al Jazeera, 2026-06-18
- 2Dow closes little changed after touching record; Nasdaq slides to start July · CNBC, 2026-07-01
- 3Dow slides more than 570 points as oil spikes and Trump threatens another attack on Iran: Live updates · CNBC, 2026-07-08
- 4Nasdaq drops 1% as chip stocks tumble and oil spikes; Dow slips below 53,000: Live updates · CNBC, 2026-07-07
- 5Oil prices, stocks surge as Hormuz closure drags on · Al Jazeera, 2026-08-10
- 6Oil prices rise as U.S. threatens 'economic isolation' of Iran · CNBC, 2026-08-14
- 7Walmart (WMT) Q2 2027 earnings · CNBC, 2026-08-20
- 8Dow falls more than 400 points, oil rises after new U.S. strikes against Iran · CNBC, 2026-09-01
- 9Dow tumbles 400 points, posting 3-day slide as rates jump and Brent crude tops $101 · CNBC, 2026-09-09
- 10U.S. crude oil tops $100 again as market braces for prolonged Iran war · CNBC, 2026-09-10
- 11Stock market today: Nasdaq surges 2% to record high, Dow and S&P 500 gain as chip stocks rally, oil falls · Yahoo Finance, 2026-09-21
- 12Markets News, Sept. 25, 2026: Indexes Close Higher, Post Weekly Gains as Treasury Yields, Oil Prices Slip · Yahoo Finance, 2026-09-25
- 13Oil prices split as Brent tops $102, Murban hits $110 per barrel on Oct. 5, 2026 · Gulf News, 2026-10-05
- 14Oil slips as Middle East crude exports rise, G7 to release stocks · Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-05
- 15How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 10/12/2026 · AP via La Nacion, 2026-10-12