JPM · JPMorgan Chase

What JPMorgan Chase does

JPMorgan Chase is America's largest bank: Chase for households, plus one of the world's biggest investment banks. About half its revenue is the gap between loan interest and what depositors are paid.⁴

What it sells

Corporate & investment bank42% of revenue, FY2025
Trading, deal advice, lending and payments for companies and big investors. It earned nearly half the bank's 2025 profit.
Consumer & community banking41% of revenue, FY2025
Chase checking, credit cards, auto loans and mortgages. Cards and auto loans alone brought in $28.2B in 2025.
Asset & wealth management13% of revenue, FY2025
J.P. Morgan funds and the private bank for wealthy families. Fees rise and fall with the value of client assets.

Who buys it

Chase serves households and small businesses through 5,083 branches in 48 states and Washington, D.C. The investment bank serves corporations, governments and big investors worldwide. Most revenue comes from North America, so results track the U.S. economy and markets.

Where you've seen it

Every Chase branch, debit card and credit card belongs to JPMorgan's consumer bank.

How the business makes money

The backstory

JPMorgan has long held more capital than regulators require: its core capital ratio (CET1, shareholder equity as a share of risk-weighted assets) was 15.7% at the end of 2024, against an 11.5% requirement. Spare capital earns little sitting idle. Dimon says buying back stock at today's price earns only about 6% a year, so the bank is spending it on loans, bankers and a $1.5 trillion, 10-year program financing defense, energy and manufacturing.

JPMorgan gathers cheap deposits, lends them out, and adds trading and deal fees on top. Spare capital now goes first into growth, then to shareholders.^1,2,4,11

1 · Cheap fundingDepositsChase has the most U.S. retail deposits for six years running. It added 650,000 net new checking accounts last quarter.
2 · Profit engineInterest incomeNet interest income, loan and bond interest minus what depositors are paid, was 52% of 2025 revenue.
3 · Second engineTrading and dealsThe investment bank trades for big investors and arranges deals. It ranks first worldwide in investment banking fees this year.
4 · InvestmentRedeploy capitalSpare capital now funds growth before buybacks. Average loans rose 10% from a year earlier.
5 · PayoutDividendShareholders get a $1.65 quarterly dividend, with buybacks now coming after growth spending.

Advantages

The largest deposit base

Major advantage

The biggest advantage, because deposits are a bank's raw material. Chase has led U.S. retail deposits six years running, so it funds loans cheaply and keeps more of each loan's interest as profit.¹

The top investment bank

Strong advantage

A strong second engine that earns most in busy markets. JPMorgan has the largest share of global investment banking fees, and its trading desks brought in $35.8B in 2025, about a fifth of revenue.^1,4

Wealth management

Supporting

A smaller, steadier fee business. Client assets rose 15% to $7.9T from a year earlier, and fees on those assets rise with markets without needing much capital.¹

What's changing

Buybacks slashed as capital goes into growth

Gross buybacks fell to $1.1B last quarter from $6.7B the quarter before and $8.3B a year earlier. Dimon said redeploying the bank's roughly $30B of spare capital into clients and new businesses beats buying stock, and that the cut has nothing to do with new capital rules. Fewer buybacks mean the share count shrinks more slowly, so earnings per share get less of a lift from that source.^1,2,5,16

Competitors

Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.

Company	Market value	What it does	Compared with JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan Chasethis stock	$898.44B	JPMorgan Chase is America's largest bank: Chase for households, plus one of the world's biggest investment banks. About half its revenue is the gap between loan interest and what depositors are paid.
Bank of AmericaBAC	—	Second-largest U.S. bank, built on consumer deposits and Merrill wealth advisors.	Bank of America earns lower returns yet bought back five times more stock last quarter.^6,1,16
Goldman SachsGS	—	Investment bank and trader for companies, funds and the very wealthy.	Goldman gets about 70% of revenue from deals and trading; JPMorgan has cheap deposits underneath.^13,1
Morgan StanleyMS	—	Wealth management giant with an investment bank attached.	Morgan Stanley earns about half its revenue from wealth advice, and slightly higher returns.^14,1
Wells FargoWFC	$248.10B	Main Street consumer and business bank, now growing loans and deposits again.	Wells is mostly a U.S. lender; JPMorgan adds global trading and dealmaking.¹⁵

Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock

1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.

The question they disagree on

Can JPMorgan keep its return on tangible equity near 20% in 2027 as costs climb toward $114B and spare capital goes into lending instead of buybacks?^{1,2,3,4,7,10,16}

Bull case: why buyers buy

New loans and busy markets keep revenue growing faster than costs, so JPMorgan keeps earning about 20% on equity and the redeployed capital compounds.

Lending growth is feeding interest income. The CFO expects interest income outside trading to rise about $5B in 2027 from the fourth-quarter pace.
Trading is booming. Revenue from stock trading rose 49% last quarter from a year earlier.
Analysts are raising their numbers. The 2027 earnings forecast rose about 4% over the past 90 days.
Bad loans are not rising. Net charge-offs, loans written off as lost, fell $389M from a year earlier.

Bear case: why sellers sell

If costs keep rising faster than revenue while trading cools, returns slip, and with buybacks cut there is less to lift earnings per share.

Costs rose faster than revenue last quarter. Expenses grew 12% against 8% revenue growth, and earnings missed forecasts even excluding a securities loss.
Cost growth only slows to match revenue. The CFO's early read puts 2027 expenses near analysts' $114B, about 5% above this year's roughly $109B.
Smaller buybacks slow per-share growth. Retiring fewer shares means each remaining share's slice of profit grows more slowly.
The stock already prices in quality. Its price-to-book ratio, share price divided by accounting net worth per share, reached 2.5 in late October, its highest in at least five years.

Where Delphi landsholdWe think today's price already weighs both sides fairly.See why

What to watch

The numbers that will settle the debate.

Net interest income excluding trading▲ improving

$24.7B in Q3, up 6%; about $25.5B guided for Q4^1,2,4

Lending profit, mostly from Chase's consumer bank. Management's central case for 2027 is about $107B.

Markets revenue and investment banking fees▲ improving

Markets $10.3B (up 15%) and deal fees $3.0B (up 14%) in Q3¹

The investment bank's swing lines, strongest when markets are busy.

Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE)■ flat

21% in Q3 excluding securities losses; CET1 ratio 13.9%^1,3

Yearly profit per dollar of shareholders' money, excluding goodwill. The through-cycle target is 17%.

Next earnings report

Jan 14

In 70 days

Expected earnings per share: $5.86
Expected revenue: $51.07B

What to listen for: The 2027 expense forecast against the interest income outlook, and whether buybacks stay low.⁷

What would prove this wrong

✕Expenses keep growing faster than revenue through 2027.
✕Card charge-offs rise well above the 3.2% management expects.
✕Trading revenue falls back as markets quiet down.
✕New lending earns less than the 17% return target.
✕Dimon leaves before co-presidents Petno or Rohrbaugh are proven.

Our ratingHoldas of Nov 3 close, $337.98 · what ratings mean

With buybacks cut, analysts expect only about 6% earnings growth next year, and the stock already trades above its usual multiple, so returns trail the S&P 500.

12-month target: $363.69 (+7.6%)
Plus dividend: +1.8%
S&P 500, same method, with dividends: +18.5%
Expected vs the market: -9.1 points

The math behind the recommendation

Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.

Now $337.98

Target $363.69

bull case30% likely

$430.80 +27%

Loan growth and busy trading lift revenue faster than costs, returns stay above 20%, and earnings reach the top of forecasts.

$28.02 earnings per share × 15.4 = $430.80

base case50% likely

$349.07 +3%

Interest income reaches about $107B in 2027 while expenses near $114B, so returns hold near 20% and earnings match forecasts.

$27.15 earnings per share × 12.9 = $349.07

bear case20% likely

$299.56 -11%

Costs keep outrunning revenue as trading cools, returns slip toward the 17% target, and earnings land in the lower half of forecasts.

$26.36 earnings per share × 11.4 = $299.56

Why these odds: Tilted up. Analysts raised 2027 earnings forecasts about 4% over 90 days (six raises, two cuts in 30 days). But Q3 missed, as did two of the last four quarters. History uses trailing, not forward, P/E; 2028 extends MarketScreener growth.

How the prices are built: Wall Street expects earnings per share of $27.15 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $25.57 to $28.89). Today the stock trades at 13.4 times next year's earnings per share; its five-year middle is 11.32.^7,8,9,10,2

What tests the call: Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 expense outlook (~2027-01)

Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 28; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record

What the price assumes

At $337.98, investors pay less for each dollar of JPMorgan Chase's earnings than for the average stock's

JPMorgan Chase trades at 13 times the earnings analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's earnings. That is above its five-year middle of 11.

Analysts expect earnings to grow about 7% the year after, against about 16% for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 trades at 19 times. At the market's multiple, today's price would only make sense if JPMorgan Chase earned about 28% less than forecast over the next year.

JPMorgan Chase multiple: 13×
S&P 500 multiple: 19×
Base case: +3%
Bear case: −11%

The skewOur bear case loses about $3.46 for every $1 our base case makes. That ratio, how much you stand to lose against how much you stand to make, is the skew.

Last earnings

No reported quarters available.

Limits of this analysis

Claims that rest on thin or conflicting sources, estimates that had to be extended, and judgment calls.

?The $30B of spare capital is Dimon's rough estimate on the call ("probably $30 billion or something"); pending capital rules, which he says are still unknown, could change it.
?The $107B 2027 interest income figure is a preliminary central case; the CFO said about a quarter of the $5B rise relies on Fed rate increases priced into markets.
?The valuation history uses StockAnalysis trailing P/E readings, not the forward basis behind today's 13.3; we found no forward history. Readings near 9 in 2022-2023 pull the typical level down.
?No source ranks why the stock slipped 0.9% on results day; the miss, cost jump and buyback cut as causes, and the 2027 outlook as an offset, are our reading.
?Forecasts differ: Yahoo puts 2026 earnings per share at $24.02, MarketScreener at $24.92. We used Yahoo and extended to 2028 by MarketScreener's implied 7.6% growth.

Sources

Written Oct 28. Numbers link to these sources.

1JPMorgan Chase Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1) · SEC EDGAR, 2026-10-13
2JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · Fortune (Quartr), 2026-10-13
3JPMorgan shares subdued as third-quarter earnings miss forecasts · Hargreaves Lansdown (Sharecast), 2026-10-13
4JPMorgan Chase & Co. Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 · SEC EDGAR, 2026-02
5JPMorgan Chase Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release (Form 8-K exhibit) · SEC EDGAR, 2026-07-14
6Bank of America Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1) · SEC EDGAR, 2026-10-14
7JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Analyst Estimates · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-28
8JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-28
9JPMorgan Chase & Co.: Financial Data Forecasts Estimates and Expectations · MarketScreener, 2026-10-28
10JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Financial Ratios, quarterly · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-28
11One year in: Security and Resiliency Initiative helping strengthen industries · JPMorganChase Newsroom, 2026-10
12JPMorgan sets a new succession plan, but Dimon plans to stay on · New Straits Times (Reuters), 2026-06
13Goldman Sachs Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results (Form 8-K exhibit 99.2) · SEC EDGAR, 2026-10-13
14Morgan Stanley Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1) · SEC EDGAR, 2026-10-14
15Wells Fargo Reports Third Quarter 2026 Net Income (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1) · SEC EDGAR, 2026-10-13
16JPMorgan Chase Earnings Release Financial Supplement, Third Quarter 2026 (Form 8-K exhibit 99.2) · SEC EDGAR, 2026-10-13