General Electric
GE- Our rating
- hold
- 12-month target
- $369.40 +15.2%
- Expected vs. S&P 500
- -2.7 ptsSee the math
- Next earnings
- Jan 21In 77 days
Boeing's 777X arriving hurts GE first: the GE9X, its only engine, sells at a loss, and GE expects those losses to grow about $300M in 2027.
GE Aerospace builds jet engines, but most of its profit comes from overhauling and supplying parts for engines already flying, and that work is still growing fast. Defense engines, about a quarter of sales, grow more slowly at about half the margin. GE expects its overall margin to stay flat in 2027 as it ships more money-losing engines for Boeing's delayed 777X, so profit grows only about as fast as sales. The stock still trades at a premium, so it needs margins to rise again in 2028, as management expects.
GE Aerospace makes jet engines, many through CFM, a 50-50 venture with France's Safran. About 50,000 of its commercial engines are installed on planes, and servicing engines brings in about 70% of revenue.3,24
What it sells
- Engine repairs and parts57% of segment revenue, 2025
Overhauls and spare parts for commercial engines already flying. Most of GE's profit comes from here.
- Defense and propulsion24% of segment revenue, 2025
Fighter and helicopter engines for the U.S. military and allies, plus parts makers like Avio Aero. Margins are about half the commercial side's.
- New commercial engines19% of segment revenue, 2025
CFM's LEAP engines for the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo, plus widebody engines. New engines earn little but bring decades of repairs.
Who buys it
Airlines and leasing companies buy repairs and parts; Boeing and Airbus buy new engines; the U.S. government was 10% of 2025 revenue. Because servicing drives profit, results follow how much airlines fly more than how many planes get built.
Where you've seen it
Under the wing of every Boeing 737 MAX, and every 737 model since 1981, labeled CFM rather than GE.
How the business makes money
Engine makers sell engines at thin margins to win spots on new planes, then earn the profit back over decades of repairs. GE's older CFM56 fleet is still in its heavy overhaul years and very profitable. Its successor, the LEAP, earns less on repairs while it is young. CEO Larry Culp's answer is more repair capacity, LEAP durability fixes, and buying castings maker CPP to ease parts shortages.
GE wins spots on new planes with thinly priced engines, then earns most of its profit servicing them for decades. Profit grows as the fleet ages into heavy overhauls.1,2,3,4,22
- 1 · EntryEngine saleNew engines earn little at first. Launch pricing on LEAP keeps equipment margins thin, but each sale adds decades of service work.
- 2 · AnnuityShop visitsEvery engine returns for overhauls. Airlines must send engines in for heavy maintenance after set hours of flying.
- 3 · Cash engineSpare partsParts carry the profit. Spare parts are about 40% of GE's services revenue, and higher prices helped lift profit last quarter.
- 4 · HandoffCFM56 to LEAPRepair work is shifting to LEAP. LEAP overhaul volume rose over 40% last quarter as the fleet ages.
- 5 · DragGE9X lossesThe 777X engine costs money first. Losses grow as shipments ramp, and GE says they should start to ease from 2028 as unit costs fall.
- 6 · PayoutBuybacks and CPPCash goes back to shareholders and into supply. GE bought back $2.0B of stock last quarter and will borrow to help buy CPP.
Advantages
The largest commercial engine fleet
Major advantageThis is the main reason to own GE. About 50,000 GE and CFM commercial engines are installed, and each needs overhauls and parts for decades. Rivals cannot build a fleet like that quickly, because an airline usually keeps one engine type for a plane's whole life.3
The engine on most new single-aisle jets
Strong advantageA big advantage in the busiest part of the market. CFM's LEAP is the only engine on the 737 MAX and one of two choices on the A320neo, so every MAX and many A320neos add to GE's future repair work. GE took commitments for more than 1,800 engines at this summer's Farnborough air show.1,3,24,25
What's changing
Paying for the 777X before it earns
GE raised its 2026 forecast again in October, yet on October 27 the stock was about 23% below its August high as attention moved to 2027. Management expects services growth to slow and margins to stay flat as GE9X shipments for Boeing's 777X ramp up. It also agreed to buy CPP and will borrow to help pay for it.1,2,4,9,23
Competitors
Who else an investor would consider, and how they compare.
| Company | Market value | What it does | Compared with GE Aerospace |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Aerospacethis stock | $331.34B | GE Aerospace makes jet engines, many through CFM, a 50-50 venture with France's Safran. About 50,000 of its commercial engines are installed on planes, and servicing engines brings in about 70% of revenue. | |
| RTX (Pratt & Whitney)RTX | — | Geared turbofan engines for the A320neo, plus aircraft parts and missiles. | A metal flaw has kept Pratt-powered A320neos parked for three years; LEAP needed smaller fixes.12 |
| Rolls-RoyceRYCEY | — | Widebody engines for long-haul jets, paid mostly by hours flown. | Rolls-Royce lives on widebodies; GE earns most from narrowbody engines.10 |
| SafranSAFRY | — | French maker of engines, landing gear and cabin equipment; GE's CFM partner. | Safran owns half of CFM; GE adds widebody and defense engines.11,3 |
Bull vs. bear: two bets on the same stock
- 1
A share is a small slice of the company. Its value comes from the profits the company will make in the future.
- 2
Nobody knows those profits yet. Buyers (bulls) pay today's price betting they'll beat what most people expect. Sellers (bears) bet they'll fall short.
- 3
When results come in, the price moves toward whichever side was right, and that side makes money.
Will GE Aerospace's operating margin rise above its 2026 level of about 22% in 2028, once 777X engine losses peak?1,2,4,13,16,21,22
If GE9X losses peak in 2027 and LEAP repairs become as profitable as older engines, margins rise in 2028 and earnings grow faster than sales.
- Repair demand is locked in for years. GE has over $170B of contracted service work, and next year's overhauls are set by flights already flown.
- The older engine fleet keeps paying. Airlines are retiring CFM56 engines more slowly than GE planned, and it expects close to 2,400 CFM56 overhauls in 2027.
- Defense adds steady growth. Management expects defense revenue to grow at a high-single-digit rate in 2027 with slightly higher margins.
- GE keeps beating analysts' estimates. Its earnings beat consensus by 9% to 16% in each of the last four quarters.
If 777X losses last longer or high fuel prices make airlines fly less, earnings only grow with sales and the stock's premium valuation shrinks.
- The 777X engine still waits on a fix. GE can't book its GE9X shipments until the FAA certifies an upgraded seal, which GE targets by the end of 2026.
- Repair growth is slowing. Commercial services should grow at a low-double-digit rate in 2027, down from the low 20s this year.
- High fuel prices squeeze GE's customers. The Middle East war led GE to cut its 2026 flight-growth forecast in April, and fewer flights mean fewer overhauls later.
- The stock still carries a premium. It trades at about 33 times expected earnings for the next 12 months (a forward P/E of 33), so flat margins leave little room.
Where Delphi landsholdWe think today's price already weighs both sides fairly.See why
What to watch
The numbers that will settle the debate.
What would prove this wrong
- ✕Boeing delays the 777X again or the GE9X seal fix slips, stretching losses past 2027.
- ✕LEAP service margins still trail the rest of commercial services in 2028.
- ✕Airlines cut flying or delay overhauls because of high fuel prices.
- ✕GE's 2028 outlook shows no margin increase.
Repair demand is strong, but flat 2027 margins mean earnings grow only with sales, and at about 33 times earnings the stock should roughly match the S&P 500.
- 12-month target
- $369.40 (+15.2%)
- Plus dividend
- +0.6%
- S&P 500, same method, with dividends
- +18.5%
- Expected vs the market
- -2.7 points
The math behind the recommendation
Three 12-month price scenarios, weighted by probability, compared with the S&P 500 under the same method.
GE9X losses peak in 2027, LEAP repair margins catch up early, and GE guides 2028 margins clearly higher, so earnings beat consensus.
$10.42 earnings per share × 40.5 = $422.06
Commercial services grow at low double digits, margins hold flat in 2027 and edge up in 2028, and earnings track consensus.
$10.32 earnings per share × 35.2 = $363.30
Another 777X delay stretches GE9X losses, high fuel prices make airlines put off overhauls, and investors stop paying a premium for GE.
$10.21 earnings per share × 30 = $305.67
Why these odds: GE beat estimates by 9% to 16% four quarters running, and 2026 estimates rose from $7.91 to $8.16 in 90 days. But fourth-quarter guidance fell short and 2027 margins stay flat. History starts September 2024; 2028 is extended from 2027, with 2026's estimate range.
How the prices are built: Wall Street expects earnings per share of $10.32 for the year starting a year from now (analysts range from $10.09 to $10.51). Today the stock trades at 35.2 times next year's earnings per share; its five-year middle is 35.1.1,4,13,14,15,16,18
What tests the call: Q4 2026 earnings and first formal 2027 guidance (Jan 21)
Buy means expected to beat the S&P 500 by 10+ points over 12 months; Sell means expected to trail it by 10+. Inputs gathered Oct 28; the recommendation updates with the price every day. Model-generated, not personalized investment advice. How ratings work · Track record
At $320.67, investors pay 89% more than they pay for the average stock's earnings
General Electric trades at 35 times the earnings analysts expect over the next 12 months. That ratio is the multiple: what investors pay today for each dollar of a year's earnings. That is above its five-year middle of 35.
Analysts expect earnings to grow about 13% the year after, against about 16% for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 trades at 19 times. General Electric's earnings are expected to grow slower than the market's, so the premium has to rest on something other than growth, such as how dependable those earnings are.
- General Electric multiple
- 35×
- S&P 500 multiple
- 19×
- Base case
- +13%
- Bear case
- −5%
Price over the next 12 months' expected earnings.
The same measure for the market.
Our most likely 12-month outcome from $320.67.
Bull case +32%.
The skewOur bear case loses about 35¢ for every $1 our base case makes. That ratio, how much you stand to lose against how much you stand to make, is the skew.
Last earnings
No reported quarters available.
Limits of this analysis
Claims that rest on thin or conflicting sources, estimates that had to be extended, and judgment calls.
- ?The 2027 outlook (flat margins, about $300M more GE9X losses, high-single-digit defense growth) is spoken color from the earnings call, not formal guidance; GE guides 2027 in January.
- ?GE9X revenue and the GE9X loss estimate assume the FAA certifies an upgraded engine seal by the end of 2026. A slip moves both.
- ?No acceptable source publishes a 2028 consensus or any 2027 low/high. We extended 2027's $9.29 by MarketScreener's 13% growth, and borrowed 2026's narrow analyst range, which likely understates the spread.
- ?Sources disagree on the 2027 earnings consensus, from about $9.05 (pre-report) to $9.29 a share; we use MarketBeat's post-report $9.29, which matches Yahoo's implied 14% growth.
- ?Our valuation history starts in September 2024, after GE became a pure aerospace company, and the four latest readings use estimated rather than reported earnings.
Sources
Written Oct 28. Numbers link to these sources.
- 1GE Aerospace Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99) · GE Aerospace via SEC EDGAR, 2026-10-20
- 2GE Aerospace third quarter 2026 performance (earnings slides) · GE Aerospace, 2026-10-20
- 3General Electric Co. Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 · GE Aerospace via SEC EDGAR, 2026-02
- 4Q3 2026 General Electric Company earnings call (transcript) · GE Aerospace (LSEG StreetEvents transcript), 2026-10-20
- 5Stock market news for Oct. 20, 2026: GE Aerospace slips after earnings · CNBC, 2026-10-20
- 6RBC cuts GE Aerospace stock price target on 2027 growth concerns · Investing.com, 2026-10-21
- 7Q2 2026 earnings: GE Aerospace keeps the beat despite a few missed notes · Leeham News, 2026-07-16
- 8GE Aerospace Q1 2026 Earnings: Conflict in the Middle East Overshadows Strong Start to 2026 · Leeham News, 2026-04-21
- 9GE to Buy Consolidated Precision Products for $11.75 Billion · Bloomberg Law, 2026-09-08
- 10RR Holdings plc 2026 half year results · Rolls-Royce, 2026-07-30
- 11Strong LEAP engine demand lifts Safran to record first-half performance · Leeham News, 2026-07-28
- 12RTX 2025 Earnings: Commercial Aerospace Leads Growth as Pratt Advances GTF Recovery · Leeham News, 2026-01-27
- 13GE Aerospace (GE) analysis: earnings estimates, revisions and history · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-28
- 14GE Aerospace (GE) earnings history and estimates · MarketBeat, 2026-10-28
- 15GE Aerospace financials and forecasts · MarketScreener, 2026-10-28
- 16GE Aerospace quarterly ratios (price, P/E, forward P/E) · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-28
- 17GE Aerospace (GE) price target and analyst ratings · MarketBeat, 2026-10-28
- 18GE Aerospace earnings date and forecast · Investing.com, 2026-10-28
- 19GE Aerospace Q3 2026: adj. EPS 2.25 (exp. 2.01), adj. revenue 13.3bln (exp. 12.88bln) · Newsquawk, 2026-10-20
- 20GE Aerospace (GE) stock price history · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-28
- 21GE Aerospace Announces First Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99) · GE Aerospace via SEC EDGAR, 2026-04-21
- 22Q1 2026 General Electric Co earnings call (transcript) · GE Aerospace (LSEG StreetEvents transcript), 2026-04-21
- 23Where Cramer stands on two beaten-down aerospace stocks, and the one to buy · CNBC, 2026-10-27
- 24CFM LEAP-1B takes flight powering Boeing 737 MAX · GE Aerospace, 2016-02-01
- 25Analysis: engine selection trends on the A320neo · FlightGlobal, n/a