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The weight-loss drug boom

Weight-loss drugs like Zepbound and Wegovy are changing how much Americans eat, lifting Lilly and hurting snack makers.

Market value moved since Aug 2023
+$907Bwinners−$168Blosers

Combined change in market value of the companies the theme hits directly. Ripple effects aren't counted, and not every dollar of each move is down to this theme.

What's happening

GLP-1 drugs copy a gut hormone that signals fullness, so people eat less and lose weight. About 1 in 8 US adults said they were taking one in a November 2025 KFF poll. Access is widening as prices fall. Under a November 2025 deal with the White House, Lilly and Novo cut Medicare's price to $245 a month, and since July 1 eligible Medicare patients with obesity pay $50 a month. Pills arrived this year. Novo's Wegovy pill launched Jan. 5 and Lilly's Foundayo was approved April 1, both starting at $149 a month for cash buyers. Foundayo brought in $184 million last quarter, but in August Novo's pill had about five times its weekly prescriptions. Lilly sells Zepbound vials for $299 to $449 a month on its own website. Lower prices are bringing in more patients: Lilly's revenue rose 39% last quarter to $24.4 billion even though its average prices fell 15%.

Who wins, who pays, and why

Lilly is the clear winner. Mounjaro and Zepbound brought in $16.1 billion last quarter, and Lilly raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $91 billion to $92 billion. Novo sells the older drug, semaglutide, and keeps losing share to Lilly; it expects 2026 sales to be flat to down 6%. Hims & Hers sells the drugs online, now mostly Novo's branded versions. The ripple effect shows up in the grocery cart. A Cornell study of Numerator purchase data found households cut grocery spending 5.3% within six months of starting a GLP-1, with savory snacks down about 10% and fast food down about 8%. That hurts snack makers like PepsiCo, whose North American volumes have shrunk. Coca-Cola says the drugs help explain rising demand for its zero-sugar drinks.

Where it stands Medicare coverage and $149 pills are widening use. Lilly trades about 8% below its August record; Novo fell to its lowest since April after its Sept. 21 investor day.

Who wins, who loses

Tends to rise
  • Eli LillyLLY
    +$903B market value since Aug 2023

    Mounjaro sales rose 65% last quarter to $10.7 billion; total revenue rose 39% to $24.4 billion, and Lilly raised its 2026 forecast again.

    Read the breakdown →
  • Hims & Hers HealthHIMS
    +$4B market value since Aug 2023

    Sells GLP-1s online, now mainly Novo's branded drugs; revenue rose 38% to $753 million last quarter, though it lost $86 million.

    Read the breakdown →
  • Coca-ColaKOripple effect

    Coke Zero Sugar volume rose 13% in the first quarter; the CFO named GLP-1 use as one reason low-calorie drinks are selling.

    Read the breakdown →
Tends to fall
  • Novo NordiskNVO
    −$168B market value since Aug 2023

    Losing share to Lilly; CagriSema, its planned successor, lost a head-to-head trial to Lilly's tirzepatide, 20.2% weight loss versus 23.6%. Reports in early November.

    Read the breakdown →
  • WW International (WeightWatchers)WWnot in the 100

    Filed for bankruptcy in May 2025 with about $1.5 billion of debt after dieters moved to GLP-1 drugs.

  • PepsiCoPEPripple effectnot in the 100

    Reuters says GLP-1s threaten its salty snacks and sugary drinks; North American volumes have shrunk and shares were down almost 12% this year.

When it moved markets

  1. Week of Sep 28Lilly fell 3.4% for the week. Its new combination drug beat Zepbound on weight loss, but up to 27% of patients quit over side effects.
  2. Week of Sep 21Novo's US shares fell 8% on Sept. 21 after it set 2030 targets of growth in line with industry peers; Lilly rose 2.6% for the week.
  3. Week of Aug 3Novo fell 6% on Aug. 4 after results showed its Wegovy pill missing sales estimates. Lilly rose 4.9% on Aug. 5 after revenue jumped 48%.

Sources

  1. 1Lilly reports second-quarter 2026 financial results, raises full-year guidance (Exhibit 99.1) · Eli Lilly via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-05
  2. 2Novo Nordisk raises adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit outlook for 2026 · Novo Nordisk, 2026-08-04
  3. 3Lilly climbs, Novo falls as obesity drug battle intensifies · BioPharma Dive, 2026-08-05
  4. 4Poll: 1 in 8 adults say they are currently taking a GLP-1 drug for weight loss, diabetes or another condition · KFF, 2025-11-14
  5. 5Trump announces deals to lower costs of weight loss drugs Wegovy and Zepbound · NBC News, 2025-11-06
  6. 6Medicare GLP-1 Bridge · Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, 2026-07-01
  7. 7Novo launches Wegovy weight-loss pill for sale in US · Reuters via BusinessDay, 2026-01-05
  8. 8FDA approves Lilly's Foundayo (orforglipron), the only GLP-1 pill for weight loss that can be taken any time of day without food or water restrictions · Eli Lilly via BioSpace, 2026-04-01
  9. 9Lilly cuts Zepbound prices, again, when buying through DTC program · BioSpace, 2025-12-01
  10. 10Hims & Hers Health, Inc. reports second quarter 2026 financial results (Exhibit 99.1) · Hims & Hers via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-10
  11. 11Novo Nordisk's FDA-approved GLP-1s now available with Hims & Hers · Hims & Hers, 2026-03-26
  12. 12Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy · Cornell Chronicle, 2025-12-18
  13. 13PepsiCo's quiet scramble to fight off the GLP-1 threat · Reuters via BusinessDay, 2026-10-07
  14. 14Coca-Cola finds success in smaller calories, smaller cans · Yahoo Finance, 2026-04-28
  15. 15Novo Nordisk shares fall 6% as company sets 2030 growth targets · Investing.com, 2026-09-21
  16. 16Lilly's EloraTZP, a combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide, Phase 2 results · Eli Lilly, 2026-09-30
  17. 17Obesity drug cuts heart risk, boosting Novo and Lilly shares · Bloomberg, 2023-08-08
  18. 18WeightWatchers files for bankruptcy after growth in GLP-1 drugs · Bloomberg via BNN Bloomberg, 2025-05-07
  19. 19Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  20. 20Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  21. 21PepsiCo (PEP) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  22. 22Novo Nordisk sues Hims & Hers over copycat versions of Wegovy drugs; Hims stock falls 18% · CNBC, 2026-02-09
  23. 23Lilly reports third-quarter 2026 financial results (Exhibit 99.1) · Eli Lilly via SEC EDGAR, 2026-10-29
  24. 24Eli Lilly's Foundayo prescriptions rise as Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill maintains lead · HLTH (from Fierce Pharma), 2026-08-10
  25. 25CagriSema demonstrated 23% weight loss in an open-label head-to-head REDEFINE 4 trial in people with obesity; the primary endpoint was not achieved · Novo Nordisk, 2026-02-23