DelphiAdvisorSoon
Market themes→ steady

Paying for the AI build-out

Worry that AI builders like Oracle, OpenAI and Meta are raising more than their data centers can earn back.

Some AI builders can't pay for data centers from their own cash, so they raise outside money. Borrowing adds interest and repayment risk: Oracle carries about $130 billion of debt and plans to raise $40 billion more, mostly to build for OpenAI. Selling new shares splits future profits among more owners: Meta plans to sell up to $95 billion of stock. When that money looks less certain, investors sell the builders and the chipmakers that supply them, and buy steadier drugmakers.

Where it stands Meta plans to sell up to $95 billion of stock for AI and OpenAI is raising privately, but chip stocks rose the same week on Anthropic's IPO filing.

Who wins, who loses

Tends to rise
  • +26.5% in 3 months

    Investors moved into drugmakers when AI financing worries hit in June; Lilly rose 10% that week and hit a record high.

    Read the breakdown →
  • +3.3% in 3 months

    Rose 11.5% and hit a record during June's AI sell-off as investors shifted toward steadier businesses.

    Read the breakdown →
  • AbbVieABBV
    +16.2% in 3 months

    Rose 17% in the same week, helped by its $10.9 billion Apogee deal and investors seeking steadier stocks.

Tends to fall
  • OracleORCL
    -18.2% in 3 months

    Carries about $130 billion of debt and plans to raise $40 billion more for data centers, mostly for OpenAI.

    Read the breakdown →
  • +5.5% in 3 months

    Fell 1.9% after announcing plans to sell up to $95 billion of new stock for AI data centers, shrinking each share's slice of future profits.

    Read the breakdown →
  • SpaceXSPCX
    +8.8% in 3 months

    Spent heavily on AI data centers and sold its first bonds in June; fell 17.2% when OpenAI's IPO looked delayed.

    Read the breakdown →
  • NVIDIANVDA
    -5.7% in 3 months

    OpenAI and Oracle's data centers are big buyers of its chips; it fell 8.6% the week OpenAI's IPO delay was reported.

    Read the breakdown →
  • -21.6% in 3 months

    Fell 14.1% the week of the OpenAI report, as investors sold chipmakers that depend on AI building.

    Read the breakdown →

When it moved markets

  1. Week of Oct 26Meta fell 1.9% after announcing it would sell up to $95 billion of new stock, rather than borrow, to pay for AI data centers.
  2. Week of Sep 21Oracle fell 7.1% after a legal notice that could let it delay lease payments on its Project Jupiter data center.
  3. Week of Aug 17Long-term bond yields neared a 20-year high, raising borrowing costs for AI data center builders; chipmakers fell, with Intel down 12.1%.
  4. Week of Jun 22A report that OpenAI may delay its IPO sent AI stocks down. Oracle had its worst week since 2001, and drugmakers hit records.
  5. Week of Jun 8Oracle fell 13.8% after saying it would raise $40 billion through debt and new shares to pay for data centers.

Sources