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Market themes↑ heating up

The AI power crunch

AI data centers need more electricity than the grid can supply, lifting power producers and raising household bills.

Market value moved since Mar 2024
+$90Bwinners

Combined change in market value of the companies the theme hits directly. Ripple effects aren't counted, and not every dollar of each move is down to this theme.

What's happening

AI chips run hot and around the clock. One rack of Nvidia's GB200 servers draws about 120 kilowatts; data center racks used to run near 20. The Energy Department estimated data centers used 4.4% of US electricity in 2023 and could use 6.7% to 12% by 2028. GE Vernova holds orders and reservations for 116 gigawatts of gas turbines but builds about 20 gigawatts a year. New reactors take a decade, so owners upgrade existing ones: Constellation is spending $4.3 billion to add 890 megawatts, which Google will buy for 20 years. On Oct. 27 the government offered Constellation loans of up to $5 billion toward about 1.1 gigawatts of such upgrades. In August Texas paused its review of 474 gigawatts of connection requests, about 90% from data centers, more than five times its record peak demand. PJM, the grid for 13 states from Illinois to New Jersey, came up 6.8 gigawatts short of its reliability target in July.

Who wins, who pays, and why

Power producers sell electricity and are also paid by PJM just for being available. That capacity price rose from $28.92 per megawatt-day for mid-2024 to $325, the legal cap, in July's auction. Tech companies also sign 20-year contracts at premium prices: Meta for 2,609 megawatts from Vistra's nuclear plants, Google for 890 megawatts of new Constellation capacity. GE Vernova sells turbines and grid gear; its orders rose 88% last quarter to $24.2 billion. Every customer pays: PJM's market monitor says data center demand added $29.4 billion to its last four auctions, and EIA expects home power prices to rise 5% this year. Regulated utilities take the political heat. Fitch cut the sector's outlook in June, and the House voted 417-3 to make data centers pay for their own grid upgrades.

Where it stands On Oct. 5 and 6 the government offered Vistra a $4.2 billion nuclear loan and Google signed for 3,590 megawatts of Constellation power. Both stocks rose over 15% that week.

Who wins, who loses

Tends to rise
  • VistraVST
    +$28B market value since Mar 2024

    Signed 20-year nuclear deals with Meta for 2,609 MW and Amazon for 1,200 MW; rose 10.8% Oct. 6 on a $4.2 billion federal loan offer.

    Read the breakdown →
  • Constellation EnergyCEG
    +$32B market value since Mar 2024

    Largest US nuclear owner; Google will buy 890 MW from upgrades Constellation is funding, plus 2,700 MW more. Shares rose 12.2% Oct. 6.

    Read the breakdown →
  • GE VernovaGEV
    -15.3% in 3 months

    Makes gas turbines and grid equipment; orders rose 88% last quarter to $24.2 billion, and its turbine queue equals nearly six years of output.

    Read the breakdown →
  • Talen EnergyTLNnot in the 100
    +$15B market value since Mar 2024

    Owns Pennsylvania's Susquehanna nuclear plant and sells up to 1,920 MW of its output to Amazon; shares are up about fivefold since March 2024.

  • NRG EnergyNRGnot in the 100
    +$11B market value since Mar 2024

    Texas power retailer and plant owner; bought 13 GW of gas plants from LS Power for rising demand. Shares up 90% since March 2024.

  • OkloOKLOnot in the 100
    +$5B market value since Mar 2024

    Designs small nuclear reactors but has none running yet; shares rose from $8.45 at its May 2024 debut to $174, then fell 80%.

  • IREN LimitedIRENripple effect

    Data center builder that owns grid connections; its 2 GW Texas site won conditional approval Sept. 8 despite the hookup pause; shares rose 5%.

    Read the breakdown →
Tends to fall
  • ExelonEXCripple effectnot in the 100

    Regulated utility in PJM; its PECO unit withdrew a $510 million rate increase request in April, citing affordability, as Fitch cut the sector outlook.

Less-watched ways to play it

Companies with real exposure to this theme that haven't moved like the leaders. Each one is paper-traded with $10,000 from the first close after we publish it and tracked against the leaders and the S&P 500, here and on the track record. Picks are never edited or removed from the log. This is research, not a recommendation to buy.

AAONAAONnot in the 100
Paper trade from $84.77 on Oct 12: -19.8% · leaders -15.2% · S&P 500 -3.3%
Exposure
Its BASX unit builds data center cooling. BASX sales tripled to $345 million, 55% of second-quarter sales, and BASX holds $1.43 billion of the $1.97 billion backlog.
Why it's less watched
Market value $7.1 billion, about one-fortieth of GE Vernova's. Four analysts publish forecasts, versus 20 to 33 for Vistra, Constellation and GE Vernova.
Not yet priced in
Shares are up 5% since March 2024, while the leaders rose 78% to 669%. Forward P/E is 24, below GE Vernova's 40 and close to Constellation's 22.
The catch
Profit is lagging sales. Gross margin fell to 24.3% from 26.6% as a new Memphis plant ramped, and backlog fell 7.4% from the first quarter.
Generac HoldingsGNRCnot in the 100
Paper trade from $218.37 on Oct 12: -7.5% · leaders -15.2% · S&P 500 -3.3%
Exposure
Backlog for data center backup generators reached about $1.6 billion, roughly a third of yearly sales, including nearly $700 million committed by one large cloud company for 2027.
Why it's less watched
Market value $13.3 billion, smaller than every leader except Oklo. Known mostly for home standby generators, not data center power.
Not yet priced in
Shares are up 97% since March 2024, below the leaders' median of 214%. Forward P/E is 17, versus 40 for GE Vernova and 22 for Constellation.
The catch
Home generators still made 53% of second-quarter sales and fell 2%. Quarterly profit included a one-time $71 million tariff refund.
MYR GroupMYRGnot in the 100
Paper trade from $313.18 on Oct 12: -11.2% · leaders -15.2% · S&P 500 -3.3%
Exposure
Builds power lines and substations. Transmission and distribution work was 48% of second-quarter revenue of $1.08 billion; its other unit wires data centers. Backlog hit a record $3.16 billion.
Why it's less watched
Market value $4.9 billion, one-twentieth the size of rival Quanta Services. Five analysts publish forecasts.
Not yet priced in
Shares are up 87% since March 2024, versus a 214% median for the leaders and 194% for Quanta. Forward P/E is 21, versus 36 for Quanta and 40 for GE Vernova.
The catch
Thin margins on fixed-price contracts. Transmission revenue grew only 3.5% last quarter; nearly all growth came from building wiring, a more cyclical business.
Modine ManufacturingMODnot in the 100
Paper trade from $172.50 on Oct 12: -28.5% · leaders -15.2% · S&P 500 -3.3%
Exposure
Data center cooling sales rose 90% to $348.6 million, 40% of quarterly sales, mostly to large cloud companies. Company backlog nearly doubled over the past year.
Why it's less watched
Market value $9.6 billion, less than half of NRG's. Eight analysts publish forecasts, versus 20 or more for Vistra, Constellation and GE Vernova.
Not yet priced in
Shares are up 98% since March 2024, in line with NRG but below the 214% leader median. Forward P/E is 18, versus 40 for GE Vernova and 22 for Constellation.
The catch
Parts shortages cut data center gross margin to 20.2% from 29.8%. Its Performance Technologies unit merges into Gentherm this quarter, which muddies reported results.

When it moved markets

  1. Week of Oct 5Google signed for 3,590 MW of Constellation power and the government offered Vistra a $4.2 billion nuclear loan. Vistra rose 15.3% for the week, Constellation 15.8%.

Sources

  1. 1Energy Department Announces $4.2 Billion Investment to Boost Nuclear Power · U.S. Department of Energy, 2026-10-05
  2. 2Why is Vistra stock surging today? · Investing.com, 2026-10-06
  3. 3Google and Constellation Announce Landmark Agreement to Bring 890 MW of New Nuclear Capacity to PJM Grid · Constellation Energy, 2026-10-06
  4. 4Constellation, Google strike 890-MW nuclear deal in PJM · Utility Dive, 2026-10-06
  5. 5GE Vernova second quarter 2026 results (Exhibit 99.1) · GE Vernova via SEC EDGAR, 2026-07-22
  6. 6PJM Capacity Auction Procures 138,318 MW of Generation Resources as Work Continues To Address Growing Electricity Demand · PJM Inside Lines, 2026-07-14
  7. 72025/2026 Base Residual Auction Report · PJM, 2024-07-30
  8. 8Data center load made up 9% of PJM wholesale costs so far in 2026: market monitor · Utility Dive, 2026-08-27
  9. 9Short-Term Energy Outlook: Electricity, coal, and renewables · U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2026-10-06
  10. 10Utility sector outlook deteriorates on affordability concerns: Fitch · Utility Dive, 2026-06-15
  11. 11Texas hits pause on data center interconnections · Utility Dive, 2026-08-05
  12. 12Vistra supports Texas data center pause, execs say · Utility Dive, 2026-08-10
  13. 13Vistra Form 8-K: power purchase agreements with Meta · SEC EDGAR, 2026-01-09
  14. 14DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers · U.S. Department of Energy, 2024-12-20
  15. 15NVIDIA DGX GB Rack Scale Systems User Guide: Hardware · NVIDIA, 2026-10-11
  16. 16NVIDIA Blackwell Platform Boosts Water Efficiency by Over 300x · NVIDIA, 2026-10-11
  17. 17U.S. House passes the Ratepayer Protection Act · National Association of Counties, 2026-09-16
  18. 18IREN's 2GW Sweetwater Hub Included as Base Load in ERCOT Batch Zero · IREN, 2026-09-08
  19. 19Talen Energy Expands Nuclear Energy Relationship with Amazon · Talen Energy, 2025-06-11
  20. 20NRG Energy Completes Acquisition of 13 GW of Power Generation and C&I VPP Portfolio from LS Power · NRG Energy, 2026-01-30
  21. 21AWS acquires data center campus connected to Susquehanna nuclear station · Power Engineering, 2024-03-04
  22. 22Vistra Corp. (VST) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  23. 23Constellation Energy (CEG) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  24. 24GE Vernova (GEV) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  25. 25Talen Energy (TLN) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  26. 26NRG Energy (NRG) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  27. 27Oklo (OKLO) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  28. 28Constellation Energy (CEG) market cap · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-09
  29. 29GE Vernova (GEV) market cap · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-09
  30. 30Talen Energy (TLN) market cap · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-09
  31. 31NRG Energy (NRG) market cap · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-09
  32. 32Oklo (OKLO) market cap · StockAnalysis, 2026-10-09
  33. 33AAON Reports Record Second Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99) · AAON via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-10
  34. 34AAON key statistics and price history · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  35. 35Generac Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · Generac via SEC EDGAR, 2026-07-29
  36. 36Generac key statistics and price history · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  37. 37MYR Group Inc. Announces Second-Quarter and First-Half 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · MYR Group via SEC EDGAR, 2026-07-29
  38. 38MYR Group key statistics and price history · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  39. 39Modine Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results · Modine Manufacturing, 2026-07-29
  40. 40Modine key statistics and price history · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
  41. 41Energy Department Announces $5 Billion Loan to Boost Nuclear Power and Help Lower Costs · U.S. Department of Energy, 2026-10-27
  42. 42Constellation Secures Conditional DOE Loan Commitment of up to $5 Billion to Expand Nuclear Output · Constellation Energy, 2026-10-27