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Market themes↑ heating up

Bond yields highest since 2002

Long-term Treasury yields climbed to their highest since 2002, making borrowing costlier and stocks less attractive next to bonds.

The 10-year Treasury yield sets the price of mortgages, company loans and other long-term borrowing. It has risen as oil keeps inflation up, worries about government borrowing grow, and the AI building boom draws money away from bonds. When bonds pay over 5%, investors need a better reason to own stocks, especially expensive ones, and companies that borrow to grow pay more. The Treasury has bought back older bonds to push yields down, but each time yields climbed again.

Where it stands The 10-year yield ended the week of Oct. 5 at 5.24%, down from 5.31% on Oct. 5, still near its highest since 2002.

Who wins, who loses

Tends to rise

None identified yet.

    Tends to fall
    • IntelINTC
      -40.1% in 3 months

      Fell 12.1% the week the 30-year yield neared a 20-year high, as chipmakers led the market down.

      Read the breakdown →
    • AMDAMD
      +0.4% in 3 months

      Expensive chip stocks fall hardest when yields jump; AMD fell 8% in that August week.

      Read the breakdown →
    • -0.4% in 3 months

      Fell 8.5% in late September as rising bond yields hit tech stocks and its Samsung talks stalled.

      Read the breakdown →
    • -8.5% in 3 months

      Its dividend competes with bond interest, so higher yields make the shares less attractive.

    When it moved markets

    1. Week of Oct 5The 10-year yield rose to 5.31%, its highest since 2002, though tech stocks still rose.
    2. Week of Sep 28The 10-year yield reached its highest level in 24 years, and Qualcomm fell 8.5% as rising yields weighed on tech.
    3. Week of Sep 21The 10-year yield rose to its highest since 2007, though a chip rally still lifted the S&P 500 1.3%.
    4. Week of Sep 7The 10-year yield passed 4.95% even after the Treasury tripled its long-term bond purchases, and stocks fell four days in a row.
    5. Week of Aug 31U.S. strikes on Iran pushed the 10-year yield to its highest since November 2023.
    6. Week of Aug 17The 30-year yield neared a 20-year high. A Treasury plan to buy back old bonds failed to hold yields down, and chipmakers fell.

    Sources