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Market themes↓ cooling

The quantum computing bet

Investors pay billions for quantum computer makers with tiny sales, betting the machines will one day beat ordinary computers.

Market value moved since Apr 2026
−$9Bwinners

Combined change in market value of the companies the theme hits directly. Ripple effects aren't counted, and not every dollar of each move is down to this theme.

What's happening

An ordinary computer stores bits that are either 0 or 1. A quantum computer uses qubits, built from trapped ions, superconducting circuits or particles of light, which can hold a mix of both and interact in ways that could solve some problems, such as modeling a molecule for a new drug, that ordinary computers cannot. The catch is errors. Heat and noise disturb qubits, so a useful machine needs many physical qubits checking one another. IBM aims to build one with 200 error-corrected qubits by 2029. Three events this spring sent the stocks up. On April 14 Nvidia released free AI models to help correct quantum errors, and IonQ and D-Wave rose more than 50% that week. On May 21 the Commerce Department offered $2 billion to nine quantum companies in exchange for stakes. On June 4 Quantinuum listed on Nasdaq after raising $1.68 billion.

Who wins, who pays, and why

Investors are paying for profits from machines not yet built. IonQ, the largest seller, expects $280 million to $290 million of revenue this year and is worth about $15 billion. Quantinuum had $8.0 million of revenue last quarter and is worth about $11 billion. D-Wave's quarterly revenue was flat at $3.1 million. All of them lose money: IonQ lost $120.3 million last quarter on an adjusted basis. They fund research and acquisitions partly with new shares, shrinking each holder's slice. IonQ had 381 million shares in July, up from 297 million a year earlier. Government money comes with conditions: Rigetti gave Commerce 7.7 million shares for up to $100 million, paid in stages as it meets technical goals. IonQ held $3.0 billion of cash and investments; Rigetti held $541 million.

Where it stands IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave each fell about 8% in the week to Oct. 9 as the Nasdaq hit a record. IonQ is 45% below its May 29 close.

Who wins, who loses

Tends to rise
  • IonQIONQ
    −$727M market value since Apr 2026

    Largest pure quantum company by sales: second-quarter revenue rose 287% to $80.1 million, and it raised its 2026 forecast to $280 million to $290 million.

  • D-Wave QuantumQBTS
    −$2B market value since Apr 2026

    Revenue was flat at $3.1 million last quarter, but shares rose 33% on May 21 when Commerce offered $100 million for a stake.

    Read the breakdown →
  • Rigetti ComputingRGTI
    −$2B market value since Apr 2026

    Second-quarter revenue rose 185% to $5.1 million; Commerce agreed to fund up to $100 million in exchange for 7.7 million new shares.

    Read the breakdown →
  • QuantinuumQNTnot in the 100
    −$5B market value since Apr 2026

    Listed June 4 at $60 a share after raising $1.68 billion; second-quarter revenue was $8.0 million. Shares closed at $41.30 on Oct. 9.

  • Quantum Computing Inc.QUBTnot in the 100
    +$38M market value since Apr 2026

    Second-quarter revenue was $5.6 million, but it holds $1.3 billion in cash and investments, most of its $1.7 billion market value.

  • IBMIBMripple effectnot in the 100

    Will get $1 billion from Commerce for Anderon, a quantum chip foundry IBM is matching with $1 billion; shares rose 12% on May 21.

  • HoneywellHONripple effectnot in the 100

    Holds about 47% of Quantinuum's voting power, so Quantinuum's share price, down 32% from its first close, feeds into Honeywell's value.

Tends to fall

None identified yet.

    When it moved markets

    1. Week of Sep 21IonQ rose 16.2% after reporting a real-time error-correction decoder and a deal to install a 256-qubit machine at Nvidia's quantum research center.
    2. Week of Aug 24D-Wave fell 16.7% and Rigetti and IonQ about 13% each as traders raised Fed rate-hike odds and D-Wave said its finance chief would retire.
    3. Week of Aug 3IonQ rose 21.9% after revenue grew 287% and it raised its forecast. Rigetti gained 20.0% and D-Wave 14.8% as both reported results.

    Sources

    1. 1Quantum stocks surge on Nvidia AI model announcement · CNBC, 2026-04-16
    2. 2IonQ Selected for DARPA's Heterogeneous Architectures for Quantum (HARQ) Program · IonQ, 2026-04-14
    3. 3Nvidia launches Ising open models · HPCwire, 2026-04-14
    4. 4Quantum stocks soar as U.S. plans $2 billion funding incentives and equity stakes · CNBC, 2026-05-21
    5. 5US to invest $2 billion in IBM, other quantum computing firms · Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 2026-05-21
    6. 6Quantinuum Inc. final prospectus (Form 424B4) · Quantinuum via SEC EDGAR, 2026-06-05
    7. 7Quantinuum Inc. quarterly report for the period ended June 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) · Quantinuum via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-13
    8. 8Quantinuum Inc. Form 8-K: CHIPS Act award agreement with the Department of Commerce · Quantinuum via SEC EDGAR, 2026-09-08
    9. 9IonQ Announces Record Second Quarter 2026 Revenues, Growing 287% YoY · IonQ, 2026-08-05
    10. 10IonQ Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results · IonQ, 2026-05-06
    11. 11IonQ Demonstrates Industry's First End-to-End Real-Time Quantum Error Decoder · IonQ, 2026-09-22
    12. 12IonQ to Advance Quantum Supercomputing by Bringing First QPU to NVIDIA Accelerated Quantum Research Center · IonQ, 2026-09-23
    13. 13Rigetti Computing Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results (Exhibit 99.1) · Rigetti via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-06
    14. 14Rigetti Computing Form 8-K: Other Transaction Agreement and Securities Issuance Agreement with the Department of Commerce · Rigetti via SEC EDGAR, 2026-09-08
    15. 15D-Wave Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (Exhibit 99.1) · D-Wave via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-06
    16. 16D-Wave Quantum Form 8-K: CHIPS Act Other Transaction Agreement with the Department of Commerce · D-Wave via SEC EDGAR, 2026-09-08
    17. 17D-Wave Quantum Form 8-K: Chief Financial Officer to retire · D-Wave via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-25
    18. 18Quantum Computing Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results (Exhibit 99.1) · Quantum Computing Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-10
    19. 19Quantum Computing Inc. quarterly report for the period ended June 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) · Quantum Computing Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-10
    20. 20IBM Sets the Course to Build World's First Large-Scale, Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computer at New IBM Quantum Data Center · IBM, 2025-06-10
    21. 21IonQ quarterly report for the period ended June 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) · IonQ via SEC EDGAR, 2026-08-10
    22. 22Quantinuum (QNT) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
    23. 23Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) historical prices · Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-09
    24. 24IonQ quarterly report for the period ended June 30, 2025 (Form 10-Q) · IonQ via SEC EDGAR, 2025-08-06