Anthropic
ANTPre-IPOFiled to go public Oct 26. No price range, share count or date set yet.
Most of Anthropic's revenue comes from models under six months old, yet it has signed for at least $637B of computing running to 2045. We'd pass at $1.5 trillion.
- 1Over 80% of Anthropic's third-quarter revenue came from models less than six months old. Its product has to be won again about twice a year.
- 2Its bill doesn't work that way. Anthropic has signed for at least $637B of computing, mostly due 2031 to 2045 and mostly uncancelable, while many top customers can cut spending any time.
- 3Ignore the $80.8B first-half loss; it's an accounting mark. Price the dilution behind it, and a board that public buyers can't elect.
- 4At the reported $1.5–2 trillion, buyers pay 22 to 30 times revenue for that mismatch. We'd pass. At about $700B, 10 times revenue, we'd buy.
- Revenue, third quarter
- About $16.9B1
- Net loss, H1
- −$80.8B1
- Owed via cloud rivals
- 58%1
Our math from a ratio in the filing. About 46% above the second quarter.
Mostly non-cash marks on notes held by Amazon and Google, which signal dilution.
Share of money owed to Anthropic that sits with Amazon, Google and Microsoft.
At or below about $700B
That's about 10 times Anthropic's current yearly revenue pace, and below the $965B last private price. The discount pays for revenue that has to be won again with each model, a board buyers can't elect, and the federal dispute. At the reported $1.5–2 trillion, buyers pay 22 to 30 times revenue as growth slows. We'd pass.1,3,8
There's no rating until it trades. Once it does, it gets a full page and a Buy, Hold or Sell like every other stock.
Anthropic builds the Claude AI models and sells them mostly by usage: businesses pay per token, a small chunk of text the model reads or writes. It is one of three companies at the frontier, with OpenAI and Google.1
What it sells
- Usage-based API80% of revenue, H1 2026
Companies pay per token to build Claude into their products, directly or through the Amazon, Google and Microsoft clouds.
- Subscriptions20% of revenue, H1 2026
Monthly Claude plans for people and teams. The filing doesn't say how much comes from Claude Code.
Who buys it
More than 11,900 customers spend over $100K a year, up from about 1,500 at the end of 2025. No customer is 10% of revenue; the top five are about a quarter. Nearly half of sales run through cloud companies that also compete with it.
Where you've seen it
Claude, the chatbot and coding assistant, and inside apps built on its models.
How it got this way
Seven co-founders set Anthropic up as a public benefit corporation, so its board must weigh its safety mission alongside shareholder returns. A trust of five financially disinterested trustees elects most of the board, and the founders elect the rest. That structure carries into the public company.1
Can revenue grow fast enough to fill at least $637B of computing Anthropic has already committed to buy?1,8
Anthropic is growing fast, profitable on operations and holding $132B of cash, so it has years to fill its computing commitments.
- The core business already makes money. Second-quarter operating income was $974M, and first-half cash from operations was $3.9B.
- Customers keep spending more. Net revenue retention, what existing customers spend now against a year earlier, was about 900%.
- No single buyer dominates. No customer is 10% of revenue, though the top five are about a quarter.
- It has cash to wait. Anthropic held $131.7B in cash and short-term investments at June 30.
If growth keeps slowing, Anthropic still owes for the computing it booked, and public shareholders have no say over how the board responds.
- Customers aren't locked in the way the bill is. Many top customers have no long-term contract, while most of the $637B runs to 2045 and can't be canceled.
- Growth is slowing. Third-quarter revenue grew about 46% from the second, by our math, after more than doubling the quarter before.
- Washington is a live risk. A court upheld the Pentagon's supply-chain-risk label, which could bar defense contractors from doing business with Anthropic.
- Some revenue may not repeat. About 5–7% this year came from customers that broke Anthropic's usage rules, flattering profit and retention.
Our verdictThe bear wins at the IPO price. The bull points are true, and $1.5 trillion already pays for them; the bear points aren't priced at all. Ignore the 900% retention figure: it compares today's spending with what customers spent a year ago, when most spent far less.
Over 80% of revenue comes from models under six months old, so Anthropic must win again every half year
Here's the number nobody is talking about. Models released in the six months to September 30 brought in over 80% of third-quarter revenue. Customers move to the newest model fast, so an older model's revenue fades once a better one arrives, from Anthropic or a rival.
Most software charges per user and renews each year. Anthropic charges per token, a small chunk of text the model reads or writes, so revenue moves with usage. Usage pricing was 80% of first-half revenue; subscriptions were the rest.
Almost half of revenue comes through the cloud marketplaces of Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Anthropic books those sales at the full price and counts the cloud's fee as a cost. OpenAI reports comparable sales net, so the two revenue figures aren't directly comparable.1,6
- Revenue, 2024
- $386M
- Revenue, 2025
- $4.6B
- Gross margin, H1 2026
- About 45–85%
Before Claude's business took off.
About 12 times the year before.
85% on Anthropic's split of computing; about 45% if all computing counts. Our math.
Where we landSoftware investors pay high multiples for revenue that renews on its own. Anthropic's revenue has to be won again with each model, so it deserves a lower multiple than software. That's a big reason our price is about 10 times revenue.
Anthropic has promised at least $637B for computing, most of it locked in, and that is the risk that matters
AI models need enormous computing power to train and to run. Computing is scarce, so Anthropic has locked in supply years ahead from every major source: Google's TPU chips, Amazon's Trainium, Microsoft's Azure cloud, and NVIDIA chips rented through other companies.
Most of those deals set a minimum Anthropic pays whether or not it needs the capacity, with most payments due between 2031 and 2045. Its customers make no such promise: many can cut spending at any time. The named deals add up to at least $637B, against revenue running at roughly $68B a year.
One piece is flexible. The SpaceXAI deal for NVIDIA chips, up to $120.5B, can be canceled on 90 days' notice after early 2027. The rest mostly can't.1
| Supplier | Minimum | Runs to |
|---|---|---|
| Broadcom (TPU equipment leases) | About $161.2B of rent | Five-year terms |
| SpaceXAI (NVIDIA chips) | Up to $120.5B | 2029; cancelable after early 2027 |
| Google (TPUs) | At least $114.5B | 2033; $125–150B more estimated for 2028–31 |
| Amazon | At least $110.0B | 2036 |
| Microsoft Azure | At least $44.9B | 2033 |
| Nscale | Up to $44.6B | 2033 |
| Lambda | About $41.3B | 2034 |
Where we landThis is the risk that decides the stock. Growth will slow well before most of the bill comes due in 2031 to 2045, and then the minimums squeeze margins. The $132B of cash covers about a fifth of the bill.
Ignore the $80.8B loss as a measure of the business; count the cheap shares behind it
Amazon holds $6.2B of Anthropic notes, loans that convert into shares, at $2.09 and $5.05 a share after the planned split. Anthropic's last private round valued shares at about $58.90. As Anthropic's value rose, those notes became worth far more, and accounting rules book that gain to Amazon as a loss for Anthropic.
That revaluation, called a fair-value mark, was $72.4B of the first-half loss, and similar marks on Google and Amazon deals added $8.8B. Operations lost $0.7B, and cash from operations was positive $3.9B.
What matters for buyers is dilution. The notes can turn into up to 1.84 billion shares at a few dollars each, and a public benefit fund can receive up to 2% more stock each time the price rises 50%.1
- Non-cash marks
- $81.2B
- Operating loss
- −$0.7B
- Cheap shares owed
- Up to 1.84B
Fair-value changes on notes, warrants and similar deals, first half.
Including $2.2B of stock-based pay.
If Amazon converts its notes.
Where we landThe loss says nothing about how the business runs. It does tell you that new buyers share the company with insiders who can get up to 1.84 billion shares at a few dollars each. Our $700B price accounts for that.
Public buyers can vote on some matters but can't elect a single director
Shares sold to the public are Class A, with one vote each, but they can't elect directors. A single share held by the seven co-founders carries 50.1% of the general vote, and a trust of five trustees elects most of the board. Between them they choose every director.
Anthropic is also a public benefit corporation. Its board must weigh its safety mission alongside returns, and its safety policy can delay or block a model release.
Government risk is live. After a presidential order in February told federal agencies to stop using Claude, the Defense Department labeled Anthropic a supply-chain risk. Anthropic won in one court and lost 2–1 at the D.C. Circuit in September, and it has asked for a rehearing. It also paid $1.5B to settle a copyright case, and other suits are open.1
Where we landThis wouldn't stop us from buying, but it costs the stock. Shareholders can't replace the board if growth stalls, and the mission can outrank profit. It's part of why our price sits well below the $965B last private price.
How we'll know we're wrong
- Revenue keeps growing more than 25% a quarter for the two quarters after the IPO, against about 46% in the third quarter. The bill gets filled sooner, and we'd raise our price.
- Older models keep earning. If the share of revenue from models under six months old falls below 60%, from over 80%, revenue lasts longer than we assume.
- Gross margin counting all computing climbs from about 45% toward 60%. That would mean the computing bill pays for itself as Anthropic grows.
- The full D.C. Circuit overturns the Pentagon's supply-chain-risk label. That removes part of our discount.
- The other direction: if quarterly growth drops below 15% before 2028, our buy price falls well under $700B.
Competitors
Limits of this analysis
- ?The 45–85% gross margin range is our math from a cost note. Computing is shared with training, so the split is Anthropic's choice.
- ?The $637B total is our sum of named deals; the filing leaves the total blank, and some are 'up to' amounts.
- ?Third-quarter revenue is derived from a ratio in the filing. Reported IPO valuations of $1.5–2 trillion come through secondary reports of WSJ and Reuters stories.
- ?About 5–7% of this year's revenue came from customers that broke Anthropic's usage rules; the company expects that share to fall.
Sources
Written Oct 29. Numbers link to these sources.
- 1Anthropic, PBC Form S-1 Registration Statement · Anthropic / SEC, 2026-10-26
- 2Anthropic raises $30B Series G at $380B post-money valuation · Orrick, 2026-02-17
- 3Anthropic raises $65B Series H at $965B post-money valuation · Orrick, 2026-05-29
- 4Amazon and Google have billions riding on Anthropic's IPO · Fortune, 2026-06-04
- 5Microsoft, NVIDIA and Anthropic announce strategic partnerships · Anthropic, 2025-11-18
- 6OpenAI's annualized revenue nears $50 billion, FT says · Bloomberg Government, 2026-10-08
- 7Alphabet third quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K exhibit) · Alphabet / SEC, 2026-10-28
- 8Reuters: Anthropic IPO investors push valuation down to $1.5T from $2T over Q3 · AI Weekly (citing Reuters), 2026-10-15
- 9Anthropic files for its IPO · Axios, 2026-10-26